Stochastic population models for the analysis of the effects of demographic processes on social security systems

The aim of this paper is to describe several methods for quantifying the amount of uncertainty inherent in population forecasts used to assess the impact of demographic processes on social security systems. Each method is briefly outlined, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The primary emphasis is on stochastic population models, and the geographic focus is on the Federal Republic of Germany.     

Temporary workers in Canada: a multifaceted program

"This article highlights important developments in the character of temporary worker flows to Canada between 1973 and 1985 through the use of unpublished data and new measures for analyzing this data. The number of employment authorizations are converted to person years to indicate the overall labor market impact of temporary worker flows and this measure is employed in an analysis of unpublished data from Employment and Immigration Canada. The analysis reveals that a significant and growing proportion of employment authorizations are exempted from governmental procedures which link the admission of temporary workers to the Canadian labor market." Reasons for these exemptions and policy implications are discussed     

Spontaneously settled refugees in Northwestern Province,Zambia

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) commissioned researchers from the University of Zambia to conduct a socioeconomic survey and census of "spontaneously settled" Zairean and Angolan refugees in the Northwestern Province of Zambia in 1982. The sample consisted of 188 Angolans, 201 Zaireans, and 2 South Africans. The difficulties experienced by refugees in Northwestern Province in achieving integration were related to a combination of factors including the lack of a clear national policy on refugees and refugee status, a national concern for maintaining security, the popular belief that aliens are responsible for an increasing crime rate, the desire by immigration officials for stricter laws to control alien infiltration, conflict between traditional and modern leaders, and Zambia's deteriorating economic situation. In spite of the problems described, the integration of refugees into existing communities is a desirable goal and should be encouraged. One should not assume that self-settling refugees are able to live with ethnic kin, receive assistance and hospitality, and thus are better off than those in camps. The Zambian case provides ample evidence that integration is not easy even with kin support, shared ethnicity, language, and historical connections. Moreover, given the fact that Zambia will continue to receive refugees it is vital that there is a well defined refugee policy and an administrative mechanism for implementing that policy at all levels. This will be particularly important in Zambia as it will undoubtedly continue to receive large influxes of refugees, from countries such as Namibia, Uganda, Angola, Mozambique, and South Africa.     

Contributors to disruption and dissolution of older-child adoptions

According to recent evidence, adoptive placements that do not work out are increasingly common. This article reviews research on rates of, and contributors to, adoption and "foster-adoption" disruptions and dissolutions. Implications for practice are included.     

Gender,academic careers,and the social psychology of aging

Because of cultural, historical and other social structural factors, men and women with the same chronological age have had quite different career trajectories. This paper examines how the different career-paths of men and women academics create differences in their images of aging, self and work. In-depth interviews (N=47) were conducted with a sample of male and female professors, currently between fifty and sixty years of age. Male respondents nearly uniformly followed continuous, linear careers while the women's careers were, with equal uniformity, discontinuous. Data suggest that this difference in career routes fashions different gender timeclocks, i.e., different experiences of aging.     

Relationship quality of gay men in closed or open relationships

This study compared gay men in monogamous ("closed") relationships (n = 98) and gay men in nonmonogamous ("open") relationships (n = 34). Partners in open relationships were living together significantly longer than partners in closed relationships. Partners in the two types of relationships did not differ in Psychological Adjustment. Controlling for length of time living together, partners in closed relationships reported higher Affiliation/Dependency, more Favorable Attitudes toward the Relationship, and lower Tension than partners in open relationships. Global relationship quality for both types of couples was related to many Attractions, many Barriers, and few Alternatives to the relationship; few beliefs regarding both Disagreement is Destructive and Partners Cannot Change; high Dyadic Attachment; high Shared Decision Making; and low Psychological Maladjustment. Partners in both types of relationships were more similar to each other than different from each other, especially on the variables of Relationship Quality, a belief in Partner Changeability, and Dyadic Attachment.     

The nature and scope of international migration data in Nigeria

Nigeria, the largest country in Western Africa, has been attracting migrants from neighboring countries for the past decade or so. Although most of the movement of African migrants has occurred outside the regulatory framework set up to control migration, it is important to know the main elements of the latter to understand the likely limitations of the data collection systems currently in operation. Sources of data on international migration include censuses, arrival and departure statistics, work and resident permits, and sample surveys. The author concludes that, with the exception of information on residence and work permits, the relationship between Nigeria's data sources and the laws regulating migration is weak. Arrival and departure statistics, in particular, are not designed to distinguish migrants from all other international travellers. Lacking the political will to modify the system in accordance with internationally accepted recommendations, the prospects for increasing the usefulness of available data are grim.     

Efforts to improve international migration statistics: a historical perspective

During the past decade, the international statistical community has made several efforts to develop standards for the definition, collection and publication of statistics on international migration. This article surveys the history of official initiatives to standardize international migration statistics by reviewing the recommendations of the International Statistical Institute, International Labor Organization, and the UN, and reports a recently proposed agenda for moving toward comparability among national statistical systems. Heightening awareness of the benefits of exchange and creating motivation to implement international standards requires a 3-pronged effort from the international statistical community. 1st, it is essential to continue discussion about the significance of improvement, specifically standardization, of international migration statistics. The move from theory to practice in this area requires ongoing focus by migration statisticians so that conformity to international standards itself becomes a criterion by which national statistical practices are examined and assessed. 2nd, the countries should be provided with technical documentation to support and facilitate the implementation of the recommended statistical systems. Documentation should be developed with an understanding that conformity to international standards for migration and travel statistics must be achieved within existing national statistical programs. 3rd, the call for statistical research in this area requires more efforts by the community of migration statisticians, beginning with the mobilization of bilateral and multilateral resources to undertake the preceding list of activities.     

Communication apprehension and reactions to proxemic violations

An experiment was designed to examine the role of a person's predispositions toward communication in reactions to violations of proxemic expectations. Working with Burgoon's (1983) violations of nonverbal expectations model, Buller and Burgoon (1986) predicted that predispositions may bias evaluations of initiator reward and violation valence. Apprehensive individuals should unfavorably evaluate the initiator, negatively valence a violation and comply less, while nonapprehensive individuals should favorably evaluate the initiator, positively valence a violation, and comply more. Alternately, this paper proposes that predispositions may affect arousal-induction rather than initiator evaluation and violation valencing. Following Patterson (1983), apprehensives should experience more arousal and comply more to reduce the arousal, whereas nonapprehensives should experience less arousal and comply less. Four initiators engaged 90 subjects in experimental conversations which ended with a request for the subjects' signature on a petition. Initiators either remained at the normative distance, moved one seat closer, or moved one seat farther from the subject. Results showed that apprehensives and subjects experiencing close violations complied more, suggesting that communication apprehension influences arousal-induction. Communication apprehension had no main effect on perceptions of initiator attractiveness and similarity, implying that arousal not perceptions of the initiator is affected by predispositions toward communication. Initiator gender again emerged as an important characteristic which influences a subject's perceptions of initiator reward.     

A generalization of Petersen's typology of migration

A typology of migration is presented that extends the one originally developed by William Petersen, which was based on ecological push, migration policy, people's aspirations, and social momentum. The proposed typology considers both the migrant's state of mind and two points in time. Examples of 36 migrant types are provided using data for Canada and selected other countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)