On Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimations of Multivariate Distribution Function Based on Interval-Censored Data

This article considers the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a joint distribution function when the multivariate failure times of interest are interval-censored. With different types of interval censoring mechanism, the NPMLE's of the multivariate distribution function are studied and the strong consistency for the NPMLEs is obtained in terms of a self-consistency equation. Furthermore, the convergence rate of the estimator is given, which depends on the types of interval censoring mechanism.     

A Bayesian Meta-Modeling Approach for Gaussian Stochastic Process Models Using a Non Informative Prior

In this article, an efficient Bayesian meta-modeling approach is proposed for Gaussian stochastic process models in computer experiments. Different prior densities and particularly, a non informative hyper prior have been employed on the parameters involved in the correlation matrix. And the estimation of related parameters is obtained by the expectation-maximization algorithm. Compared with the recent work of Li and Sudjianto (2005 Li , R. , Sudjianto , A. ( 2005 ). Analysis of computer experiments using penalized likelihood in Kriging models . Technometrics 47 : 111 – 120 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the proposed approach is not only of higher prediction accuracy but also of lower computational cost, due to the utilization of the non informative prior and the absence of tuning parameters. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach yields state-of-the-art performance.     

Semiparametric Regression Analysis of Panel Count Data with Time-Dependent Covariates and Informative Observation and Censoring Times

In this article, we extend the joint frailty models proposed by Zhao and Tong (2011 Zhao , X. , Tong , X. ( 2011 ). Semiparametric regression analysis of panel count data with informative observation times . Comput. Statist. Data. Anal. 55 : 291 – 300 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to panel count data with the time-dependent covariates and informative observation and censoring times. A novel estimating equation approach that does not depend on the distribution of frailty variables and the link function is proposed for estimation of parameters, and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed inference procedure performs well. The analysis of a bladder tumor data is presented to illustrate the method.     

农村居民消费增长比平稳更重要

 本文将消费习惯引入Lucas (1987)模型,采用农村五等份收入户的人均消费数据进行数值模拟,结果发现: 消费增长比消费平稳更重要,且收入等级越高,这种相对重要性就越突出。相对风险规避系数一定时,两类福利成本之比随习惯强度变化的轨迹呈倒U型; 习惯强度一定时,两类福利成本之比随相对风险规避系数的增大而递减。相对于其他等级的收入户,促进消费增长的经济政策为高收入户带来相对较多的福利,而平抑消费波动的经济政策能为低收入户带来较多的福利。因此,政府在促进农村居民消费增长的同时,也应重视消费波动给低收入群体造成的福利成本。     

基于改进D—S证据理论的TOPSIS模型在科技奖励评价中的应用

针对科技奖励评价的特点,根据改进D—S证据合成规则,将专家的评价指标值转化为指标的综合得分并形成决策矩阵;结合TOPSIS模型求解理想解和负理想解,计算距离和贴近度,对各评价项目进行综合排名。实证结果表明：该模型能够很好地解决科技奖励评价过程中的不确定性问题,为科技奖励综合评价提供了一种新的思路。     

Ranges of Measures of Association for Familial Binary Variables

Familial binary data occur in a wide range of scientific investigations. Numerous measures of association have been proposed in the literature for the study of intra-family dependence of the binary variables. These measures include correlations, odd ratios, kappa statistics, and relative risks. We study the permissible ranges of these measures of association such that a joint distribution exists for the familial binary variables. Our results are useful for developing efficient estimation methods for the measures of association.     

贸易开放与劳动力技能升级——基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的实证检验

通过更高水平的城市贸易开放实现区域劳动力市场升级和技能提升对中国经济高质量发展具有重要的支撑作用。在开放经济框架下,从理论上阐释了贸易开放影响劳动力技能升级的内在机制,并采用2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查微观样本和186个城市的匹配数据,对贸易开放如何影响劳动力技能升级进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)城市贸易开放能够显著促进地区劳动力技能升级,具体表现为贸易开放每提高1个百分点,城市劳动力市场中高技能劳动力占比增加约0.02个百分点;(2)产业集聚是城市贸易开放促进地区劳动力技能升级的重要渠道;(3)贸易开放对劳动力的技能升级效应具有地区异质性和城市规模异质性,中部地区城市贸易开放对劳动力技能升级的影响最明显,500万及以上人口大城市贸易开放对劳动力技能升级的促进作用最大。因此,结合产业集聚特征、地区差异和城市规模,实施针对性和适宜性的政策措施,推动“优进优出”的高质量贸易开放,对优化地区劳动力市场结构、提升高技能劳动力和人才的比例具有重要意义。     

论唐前小说中的祈雨文化

祈雨属于祈禳术之一,与民间信仰、巫术、宗教等息息相关。不论受何种因素影响而产生,其文化内涵有共通之处,都寄寓着农耕时代的人们对生命的珍视,对风调雨顺的祈请与诉求。不少史料文献对祈雨皆有相关记载,唐前小说则以自己的方式对此加以呈现：祈雨的主体不受身份限制,普通民众、仕人、术士皆可参与,但主要为仕人与术士;祈雨仪式不拘一格,民间自发举行的较为简单、随意,重在书写施法者、法术的神异、祭祀主体的德行、祷祝的最终结果,受远古遗留的“万物有灵”“巫术”等思想影响较深。祈祷的神灵有山川树木等自然神、神话传说中的神仙、龙等,杂糅了儒释道等多种思想,有一定的地域色彩。官府发起的程式严整规范,且繁冗、复杂,意在区分等级,彰显对天神的虔诚与敬畏,以及心系苍生的民本思想、农业兴邦的治国理念。唐前小说对祈雨主体、仪式,以及祝祷神灵的书写,反映了当时人们真实的生存状况,有着深厚的文化蕴涵。     

湖南省旅游生态安全动态评价及障碍因素分析

旅游生态安全是实现旅游地高质量发展、推进生态文明建设的重要环节。文章基于DPSIR模型构建湖南省旅游生态安全评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法对湖南省2011—2020年旅游生态安全进行动态评价,采用ArcGIS软件分析其空间演变特征,同时借助障碍度模型,揭示影响旅游生态安全的障碍因子。研究表明:(1)研究期内,湖南省旅游生态安全系数呈“小幅度下降,大幅度上升”的波浪形演化趋势。空间上呈现出由西北和东南向中心逐渐变好的分布格局。(2)游客密度、生活垃圾无害化处理率、工业固体废物综合利用率、GDP增长率、旅游经济密度等是主要障碍因子。     

应用型人才培养视角下工科学生法治素养培养研究

公民法治素养的提升是推进全面依法治国的重要抓手,也是建设法治国家、法治政府、法治社会的必然要求。在新时代,工科类专业应用型人才培养应突破传统的单一专业知识教学的培养模式,应按照新工科建设的要求,以培养跨学科的复合型人才为目标,将法治素养培养作为教学方式的一种转变和创新。以S省某应用型高校工程类专业为调查对象,对其应用型人才培养理念、人才培养方案、师资力量和学生学情等进行实证调研,分析工科学生法治素养培养方面存在的问题及原因,构建有效的工科学生法治素养培养路径。