Dynamic inference for non-Markov transition probabilities under random right censoring

The main contribution of this article is the verification of weak convergence of a general non-Markov (NM) state transition probability estimator by Titman, which has not yet been done for any other general NM estimator. A similar theorem is shown for the bootstrap, yielding resampling-based inference methods for statistical functionals. Formulas of the involved covariance functions are presented in detail. Particular applications include the conditional expected length of stay in a specific state, given occupation of another state in the past, and the construction of time-simultaneous confidence bands for the transition probabilities. The expected lengths of stay in a two-sample liver cirrhosis dataset are compared and confidence intervals for their difference are constructed. With borderline significance and in comparison to the placebo group, the treatment group has an elevated expected length of stay in the healthy state given an earlier disease state occupation. In contrast, the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimator-based confidence interval, which relies on a Markov assumption, leads to a drastically different conclusion. Also, graphical illustrations of confidence bands for the transition probabilities demonstrate the biasedness of the AJ estimator in this data example. The reliability of these results is assessed in a simulation study.     

A Comment on Salamon and Anheier's “Social Origins of Civil Society”

In this paper we examine Salamon and Anheier's characterization and testing of alternative theories of the size and scope of the nonprofit sector in different countries. We identify various nuances and refinements of these theories, and we suggest ways in which their validation through statistical testing can be extended and improved. Finally, we offer additional avenues of research that could productively exploit the important cross-national data set assembled by the Johns Hopkins Project.     

The Civilizing Process and The History of Sexuality: Comparing Norbert Elias and Michel Foucault

Theory and Society -     

The Capacity of Community‐Based Organizations to Lead Local Innovations in Welfare Reform: Early Findings from Texas

Community‐based organizations (CBOs) are now cast among the lead actors in welfare reform. But do they have adequate capacity to perform this critical leadership function? Early findings from fifteen state‐funded projects in Texas show that state planners must carefully assess the capacity of a CBO to initiate and sustain an innovation at the local level. The authors examine six organizational variables that predict success or failure: goals, management, technology, funding, community involvement, and performance.     

Unmet home care service needs of rural older adults with Alzheimer's disease: a perspective of informal caregivers

This study assessed unmet service needs of rural older adults with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and identified factors that were related to these needs. Data were collected from 109 informal caregivers of AD patients. Over half of the patients experienced unmet service needs in 1 or more areas of activities of daily functioning. Informal caregiver burden and patient's gender and functional status were significantly related to patients' unmet service needs. Patients' use of formal services was marginally related to their unmet service needs. To better address patients' service needs, a comprehensive needs assessment should be conducted with both patients and their caregivers.     

Three Korean perspectives on U.S. internet public diplomacy

This study identifies perspectives of relationships publics have about countries other than their own and examines whether publics engaged through social media-based public diplomacy programs demonstrate different relationship perspectives. Q methodology and survey research were used to investigate these issues. Data come from South Korean adult internet users, including members of Café USA, an online community run by the U.S. Embassy in Seoul. Three relationship perspectives were identified: outcome-based, sincerity-based, and access-based. Compared with other groups, Café USA members put more emphasis on sincerity in their relationships with the United States. The results of this study indicate that individuals’ subjectivity should be considered as far more contextualized and nuanced than has been the case in previous research on national image or country reputation.     

Partner‐specific relationship characteristics and condom use among young people with sexually transmitted diseases

This study describes associations of partner‐specific relationship characteristics with consistent condom use among 297 young people (ages 13–24) with sexually transmitted diseases (STD). Relationship‐specific variables were relationship quality, reasons for sex, relationship duration, duration of sexual relationship, coital frequency, “established” versus “new” sexual partner, cohabitation, children, sexual coercion, and drug or alcohol use associated with coitus. Relationship characteristics associated with consistent condom use included lower relationship quality, lower emotional reasons for sex, lower coital frequency, sex with a new partner, noncohabitation, and not having a child with the partner. Controlling for sociodemographic variables, factors exhibiting independent associations with consistent condom use were lower relationship quality, lower coital frequency, and not having a child with the partner. While condom use with potentially high risk new partners is important, other types of relationships are also risky but associated with lower likelihood of consistent condom use. Better understanding of complex relationship characteristics is necessary to improve STD intervention programs.     

1998 MSSA PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS: TECHNOLOGY,INNOVATION, AND HIGHER EDUCATION: THE ROLE OF SOCIOLOGY IN THE 21st CENTURY

Higher education is undergoing radical change as we move into the 21st Century. The challenges are both external and internal. Using a sociological perspective to consider these challenges can transform them into opportunities and place sociology in a leadership role in the process of change.     

General and specific measures of alienation: Is there a difference?

Nisbet and Perrin (1977) suggest that of the two types of alienation, general and specific, the latter is more prevalent. This paper examines differences between general and specific measures of alienation by breaking each into three component parts: powerlessness, self‐estrangement, and anomia. Results of tests to determine whether specific and general alienation are novel traits are mixed; the general and specific powerlessness measures are found to be more different from each other than are the measures of self‐estrangement and anomia. When the reported extent of general alienation and specific alienation is compared, all specific types are significantly greater. Finally, general measures of alienation correlate more strongly with measures of general phenomena than with specific phenomena, while specific measures of alienation correlate more strongly with measures of specific phenomena than with general phenomena.     

Family allowances in France

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.