Toward a Theory of Community Conflict: Factors Influencing the Initiation and Scope of Conflict*

A theory of the structure and process of community conflict is developed around concepts used in earlier works in the field. Then propositions relating to the central elements of community conflict are presented by concentrating on the primary variable: scope. Propositions constructed with other relevant structural variables are introduced. To begin with, procedures used in developing the propositions are discussed; and, then, suggestions for measuring them are given. Finally, implications of the theory in analyses of change are discussed.     

On the MacMahon cube law for election results

This note was prompted by remarks of Stanton (1980) which suggest a procedure MacMahon may have used in arriving at the cube law for election results. We begin by briefly reviewing the law and the mystery surrounding its original motivation. We end by assessing Stanton's contribution to the solution of the mystery and pointing out alternative laws.     

THE GREAT ALASKAN MONEY GIVE AWAY PROGRAM

For the past six years the State of Alaska has engaged in a unique program in which annual direct cash distributions have been made to the populace. These distributions represent in a sense dividend payments made to citizens on their individual shares of Alaska's mineral wealth. This paper provides a historic perspective of the Alaska dividend distribution program and examines actual distributions to determine whether they are consistent with utility maximization. We found that either a dramatic change in preferences took place over the past six years or that distributions were inconsistent with intertmporal utility maximization.     

Calculating the Hazard Function and Probability of Tumor for Cancer Risk Assessment When the Parameters Are Time-Dependent

The probability of tumor and hazard function are calculated in a stochastic two-stage model for carcinogenesis when the parameters of the mode are time-dependent. The method used is called the method of characteristics.     

The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air,Water, and Soil1

Probabilistic risk assessments are enjoying increasing popularity as a tool to characterize the health hazards associated with exposure to chemicals in the environment. Because probabilistic analyses provide much more information to the risk manager than standard “point” risk estimates, this approach has generally been heralded as one which could significantly improve the conduct of health risk assessments. The primary obstacles to replacing point estimates with probabilistic techniques include a general lack of familiarity with the approach and a lack of regulatory policy and guidance. This paper discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the point estimate vs. probabilistic approach. Three case studies are presented which contrast and compare the results of each. The first addresses the risks associated with household exposure to volatile chemicals in tapwater. The second evaluates airborne dioxin emissions which can enter the food-chain. The third illustrates how to derive health-based cleanup levels for dioxin in soil. It is shown that, based on the results of Monte Carlo analyses of probability density functions (PDFs), the point estimate approach required by most regulatory agencies will nearly always overpredict the risk for the 95^th percentile person by a factor of up to 5. When the assessment requires consideration of 10 or more exposure variables, the point estimate approach will often predict risks representative of the 99.9^th percentile person rather than the 50^th or 95^th percentile person. This paper recommends a number of data distributions for various exposure variables that we believe are now sufficiently well understood to be used with confidence in most exposure assessments. A list of exposure variables that may require additional research before adequate data distributions can be developed are also discussed.     

The first three years of NML: Central issues in the management of nonprofit organizations

The articles published in the first three years of NML define a broad spectrum of management challenges and problems for future research. These issues fall into five broad categories: governance, executive leadership, human resources management, development of financial resources, and strategic adaptation to change. This article summarizes the contributions of NML authors and suggests areas where new research would advance understanding and practice of nonprofit management and leadership.