The Unexpected Behavior of Plurality Rule

When voters’ preferences on candidates are mutually coherent, in the sense that they are at all close to being perfectly single-peaked, perfectly single-troughed, or perfectly polarized, there is a large probability that a Condorcet Winner exists in elections with a small number of candidates. Given this fact, the study develops representations for Condorcet Efficiency of plurality rule as a function of the proximity of voters’ preferences on candidates to being perfectly single-peaked, perfectly single-troughed or perfectly polarized. We find that the widely used plurality rule has Condorcet Efficiency values that behave in very different ways under each of these three models of mutual coherence.     

Ghostly fogs in a decaying empire: disoriented and melancholy experience in Russia’s metropole

ABSTRACT

This article explores the disoriented affective experience of urban modernity in the Russian imperial metropole: obsessive portrayals, by writers both famous and obscure, of St. Petersburg as a place of alleged power and intense modernity haunted by loss and feeling lost, by fragmentation and decay, by feelings of standing on shifting ground, vague disenchantment, and melancholy. With a mixture of concreteness and intangibility, this was an affective perception embodied in haunting fogs. Fog was a ubiquitous fact in the material city and an inescapable metaphor in the interpreted city. If imperial modernity represented confident knowledge and forward movement, fog represented uncertainty and disorientation, even the unrepresentable. Not least, fog embodied and nurtured anxious feelings about historical time: the experience of the modern as discontinuity, fragmentation, contingency, precarity, instability, and looming disaster. But fog also evoked dreams and possibilities of the unexpected. Fog disrupted epistemological certainties and historical teleologies. Fog disoriented the present and thus the future. As such, fog opened up vague visions of possibility and even a radical other. This essay itself seeks to disorient familiar understandings of St. Petersburg and its famous cultural ‘text’ to see through its fogs, and in fog itself, not only unstable images of a decaying imperial modern, not only the off-centred experience of that history at the heart of imperial power, but also images of vaguely imagined and unpredictable possibility. As such, this is a story that can reorient how we understand the revolution that began in St. Petersburg in 1917 and shook apart an empire.     

Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk‐based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.     

Distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles in small samples

Estimators for quantiles based on linear combinations of order statistics have been proposed by Harrell and Davis(1982) and kaigh and Lachenbruch (1982). Both estimators have been demonstrated to be at least as efficient for small sample point estimation as an ordinary sample quantile estimator based on one or two order statistics: Distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles can be constructed using either of the two approaches. By means of a simulation study, these confidence intervals have been compared with several other methods of constructing confidence intervals for quantiles in small samples. For the median, the Kaigh and Lachenbruch method performed fairly well. For other quantiles, no method performed better than the method which uses pairs of order statistics.     

How do men with paraplegia choose activities in the light of striving for optimal participation? A qualitative study,based on a phenomenological–hermeneutical method

The objective of this study was to explore the experiences of men with paraplegia with regard to how they choose activities. The study involved a qualitative research design, based on a phenomenological–hermeneutical method. The findings revealed that the activities participants were choosing could be on a continuum between the individual’s self and the influence from their environment. On this continuum, the choice to perform activities was influenced by two mediating factors: the individual’s activities performed during their life-history, and their activity challenges for the future. We conclude that choosing activities is an individually constructed internal process of negotiation. Feelings of resignation and revolt appear in combination with feelings of justice and injustice when balance is not found. This knowledge provides a better understanding of the impact of spinal cord injury, sheds light on the development of distress after spinal cord injury and sheds new light on individuals’ feelings of participation.     

Interweaving Objects,Gestures, and Talk in Context

In a large French hospital, a group of professional experts (including physicians and software engineers) are working on the computerization of a blood-transfusion traceability device. By focusing on a particular moment in this slow process of design, we analyze their collaborative practices during a work session. The analysis takes a praxeological and interactionist approach and is inspired by discussions on the role of artifacts in social practices currently developed within various research frameworks in this field: activity theory, distributed cognition, conversation analysis, and actor network theory. After a brief presentation of the place of objects and artifacts in these ways of approaching action and human cognition, we show how the collective activity analyzed here is generated by the interweaving of discursive, gestural, and artifactual resources.     

Shelter Service Utilization of Domestic Violence Victims

This study examines service utilization among 283 adult victims of domestic violence identified by crisis responders as being in need of crisis services. The purpose of this study is to explore the differences between the domestic violence victims who choose to utilize shelter services and those who do not. Findings suggest that domestic violence victims who were more likely to utilize shelter services included those who had children at the time of the incident, victims who called for assistance from a location other than their home, victims who did not have a current order of protection in place, and victims who were injured during the domestic violence incident. Implications suggest more specific services to be provided by shelters.     

DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FOR EXPLOITED POPULATIONS†

Human activities have indirectly modified the dynamics of many populations, accelerating considerably the natural rate of species extinction and raising strong concerns about biodiversity. In many such cases, the underlying ‘natural’ dynamics of the population has been modified by human‐induced increases in mortality, even if the populations are not exploited or harvested in the strict sense. Both dynamical and statistical models are needed to investigate the consequences of human‐induced mortality on the overall dynamics of a population. This paper reviews existing approaches and the potential of recent developments to help form a conceptual and practical framework for analysing the dynamics of exploited populations. It examines both the simple case of an extra source of mortality instantaneously in time, and the theory involved when both risks compete over a continuous time scale. This basic theory is expanded to structured populations, using matrix population models, with applications to the conservation biology of long‐lived vertebrates. The type and degree of compensation expected and approaches to detect it are reviewed, and ways of handling uncertainty are discussed.     

Overall evaluation of economic theories

This article evaluates economic theories of the non-profit sector by their ability to enlighten our understanding of the scope of inquiry, the determinants of the size and scope of the non-profit sector, and the behavioural responses of donors, volunteers, paid staff and non-profit organisations to changes in their external environment. Adherence to a non-distribution constraint has proven to be a useful way of delimiting economic analysis of non-profit organisations, but more attention should be paid to alternatives. Economists have been less successful at developing usable distinctions between voluntary action and exchange. The size and scope of the sector appear to be determined by entrepreneurial supply factors, donations (which in turn are influenced by tax policy, governmental spending, fund-raising, and the quality and mixture of organisational outputs, commercial or charitable), commercial activities, capital supply, the supply of labour (paid and volunteered), the marketability of outputs, and the distribution of consumer characteristics. Variations of James's (1983) model have proven useful to predict the reaction of non-profits to exogenous changes. I thank Symposium participants, especially Mark Schlesinger, Paul DiMaggio, Anne Preston, Avner Ben-Ner and Helmut Anheier for helpful suggestions.