The economic measurement and determinants of diversity

This paper has a 2-fold objective: (1) To introduce a measure that would be of general applicability in measuring diversity in different institutions. (2) To identify the determinants of diversity in child-care centers and, in particular, to examine whether the for-profit sector is less diverse than the not-for-profit sector in the child-care industry as the statistics suggest. Using our measure, we isolate factors that significantly influence diversity by using an economic model that makes diversity a decision variable of a firm. Two measures of diversity are suggested: absolute diversity and relative diversity (diversity relative to the surrounding community). To select a suitable index, the Herfindahl measure of concentration is considered relative to several suitable ecological indices measuring species diversity, and found to be virtually identical to such indices. Thus theH-index is used in both absolute and relative measures. Empirical estimation of both absolute and relative diversity equations use probability models and isolate factors that significantly influence both absolute diversity of child-care centers as well as their diversity relative to their respective counties. The data used is the recently released Profile of Child-Care Settings collected by the Mathematica Policy Research.     

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessment of the Thyroid Cancer Risk Related to Chernobyl Fallout in Eastern France

The increase in the thyroid cancer incidence in France observed over the last 20 years has raised public concern about its association with the 1986 nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl. At the request of French authorities, a first study sought to quantify the possible risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France. This study suffered from two limitations. The first involved the lack of knowledge of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence rates (in the absence of exposure), which was especially necessary to take their trends into account for projections over time; the second was the failure to consider the uncertainties. The aim of this article is to enhance the initial thyroid cancer risk assessment for the period 1991-2007 in the area of France most exposed to the fallout (i.e., eastern France) and thereby mitigate these limitations. We consider the changes over time in the incidence of spontaneous thyroid cancer and conduct both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers was estimated from French cancer registries on the basis of two scenarios: one with a constant incidence, the other using the trend observed. Thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France from Chernobyl fallout. Results from a 1995 pooled analysis published by Ron et al. were used to determine the dose-response relation. Depending on the scenario, the number of spontaneous thyroid cancer cases ranges from 894 (90% CI: 869-920) to 1,716 (90% CI: 1,691-1,741). The number of excess thyroid cancer cases predicted ranges from 5 (90% UI: 1-15) to 63 (90% UI: 12-180). All of the assumptions underlying the thyroid cancer risk assessment are discussed.     

Comment apprécier une politique policière ? : Le premier ministère Sarkozy (7 mai 2002-30 mars 2004)

How to assess the effects of the policy of Nicolas Sarkozy, Home Secretary in France from May 2002 to March 2004? An analysis of the statistics and, in particular, of the way they were construed reveals that the results were ambiguous, because law enforcement was centered on the state's duty to enforce the law while police services were being asked to show a decrease in delinquency so as to prove that the new policy was effective. On the other hand, an analysis of polls about how public opinion felt about law and order indicates that the minister's tough talk was effective to a degree, especially when feelings of insecurity were strongly politicized prior to presidential elections in April 2002. This analysis sheds light on the distance between the practical and purely political effectiveness of a policy of law and order.     

A Review of Adult Attachment Measures: Implications for Theory and Research

There has been increasing interest in adult attachment from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Because the test of a theory is based on our ability to assess theoretical constructs, the review is organized around assessment techniques. Delineating the content, focus, assumptions, and correlates of different attachment measures highlights central issues and problems in conducting research in adult attachment. In this review, we present theoretical issues related to adult attachment, in particular, individual differences, working models, and the role of attachment in adult life. A summary of the measures commonly used in the study of adult attachment follows. The literature review is organized by measure, examining topics such as relations between childhood experiences and adult attachment status, and adult attachment and adult personality and functioning, parenting and partnership behavior. Studies which explore relations between measures are discussed before concluding with thoughts about future directions.     

Characteristics of Older Adult Problem Gamblers Calling a Gambling Helpline

Background Few investigations have characterized groups of older adults with gambling problems, and published reports are currently limited by small samples of older adult problem gamblers. Gambling helplines represent a widespread mechanism for assisting problem gamblers to move into treatment settings. Given data from older adult problem gamblers in treatment, we hypothesized that older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline would be less likely to report gambling-related problems.Design and methods Logistic regression analyses were performed on data obtained from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001, inclusive, from callers with gambling problems (N = 1,084) contacting the Connecticut Council on Problem Gambling Helpline.Results Of the 1,018 phone calls used in the logistic regression analyses, 168 (16.5%) were from older adults and 850 (83.5%) from younger adults. Age-related differences were observed in demographic features, types and patterns of gambling reported as problematic, gambling-related problems and psychiatric symptoms, substance use problems, patterns of indebtedness, and family histories of addictive disorders. Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers were more likely to report having lower incomes, longer durations of gambling, fewer types of problematic gambling, and problems with casino slot machine gambling and less likely to report gambling-related anxiety, family problems, illegal behaviors and arrests, drug problems, indebtedness to bookies or acquaintances, family histories of drug abuse, and problems with casino table gambling.Conclusions Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline differ on many clinically relevant features. The findings suggest the need for improved and unique prevention and treatment strategies for older adults with gambling problems.     

Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and nonseasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modeling. In this article, the widely used Robinson's (1994 Robinson , P. M. ( 1994 ). Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses . J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89 ( 428 ): 1420 – 1437 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) test is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.     

Estimation of Time-Varying Long Memory Parameter Using Wavelet Method

Stationary long memory processes have been extensively studied over the past decades. When we deal with financial, economic, or environmental data, seasonality and time-varying long-range dependence can often be observed and thus some kind of non-stationarity exists. To take into account this phenomenon, we propose a new class of stochastic processes: locally stationary k-factor Gegenbauer process. We present a procedure to estimate consistently the time-varying parameters by applying discrete wavelet packet transform. The robustness of the algorithm is investigated through a simulation study. And we apply our methods on Nikkei Stock Average 225 (NSA 225) index series.     

Application of the Hyper‐Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes

The hyper‐Poisson distribution can handle both over‐ and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation‐specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper‐Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper‐Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway‐highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness‐of‐fit measures indicated that the hyper‐Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper‐Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper‐Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper‐Poisson model can handle both over‐ and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model.     

A Comment on Salamon and Anheier's “Social Origins of Civil Society”

In this paper we examine Salamon and Anheier's characterization and testing of alternative theories of the size and scope of the nonprofit sector in different countries. We identify various nuances and refinements of these theories, and we suggest ways in which their validation through statistical testing can be extended and improved. Finally, we offer additional avenues of research that could productively exploit the important cross-national data set assembled by the Johns Hopkins Project.     

Women's abuse of their children in the context on domestic violence: reflection from women's accounts

This paper draws upon the findings of a study that looked at women's experiences of mothering in the context of co-occurrence of domestic violence and child abuse, and considers the issue of women's violence towards children – while acknowledging the fact that men are the main perpetrators of violence towards women and children in these families. The paper first explores the relationship between women's victimization and women's violence, and suggests that women's abuse of their children can be seen as a consequence of their own experiences of domestic violence. The findings nonetheless suggest that abused women have agency, and therefore have responsibilities when they chose to use violence towards their children. The paper also considers the feelings of guilt and blame that tend to arise in these circumstances. Implications for research, policy and practice are identified.