Currents in a Stream: College Student Identities and Ethnic Identities and Their Relationship with Self‐Esteem,Efficacy, and Grade Point Average in an Urban University*

Objectives. We investigate how college student identities and ethnic identities vary among black, white, and Asian students and among immigrant, second‐, and third‐generation students at a large public urban university (in counterpoint to recent studies at highly selective schools). In addition, we explore how those identities are related to college students' sense of self‐esteem and efficacy and their academic performance. Methods. We use survey data from a sample (N=652) of students attending a large diverse public urban university to create new indexes for several dimensions of college identity and ethnic identity and use existing self‐esteem and efficacy indexes to compare black, white, and Asian students, as well as immigrant, second‐generation, and third‐generation students. Results. Among several significant identity differences, we find: (1) whites are lower than blacks on college identity indexes, and immigrant students are higher than subsequent‐generation students on college student identity measures; (2) whites are lower than blacks and Asians on ethnic identity measures; only the ethnic activities index declines linearly from immigrant to second‐ to third‐generation students; (3) blacks have higher self‐esteem and efficacy than whites or Asians; whites have higher GPAs than blacks or Asians, while immigrant students have higher GPAs than third‐generation students; and (4) at least one college student identity dimension and one ethnic identity dimension is related to self‐esteem, efficacy, and GPA. Conclusions. How young adults conceive of themselves as college students and the way they formulate their own racial‐ethnic identities is related to their self‐esteem, efficacy, and academic performance. Moreover, the pattern that these relationships take is somewhat different at a large diverse public urban university than at highly selective universities.     

Forecast Updating and Supplier Coordination for Complementary Component Purchases

We study a supply chain where an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) buys subassemblies, comprised of two complementary sets of components, from a contract manufacturer (CM). The OEM provides a demand forecast at the time when the CM must order the long lead‐time set of components, but must decide whether or not to provide updated forecasts as a matter of practice. Forecast updates affect the CM's short lead‐time purchase decision, and the anticipation of updates may also affect the long lead‐time purchase decision. While the OEM and CM both incur lost sales costs, the OEM can decide whether or not to share the overage costs otherwise fully borne by the CM. We investigate when the OEM is better served by committing to provide updated forecasts and/or committing to share overage costs. For a distribution‐free, two‐stage forecast‐update model, we show that (1) the practice of providing forecast updates may be harmful to the OEM and (2) at the OEM's optimal levels of overage risk sharing, the CM undersupplies relative to the supply chain optimal quantity. For a specific forecast‐update model, we computationally investigate conditions under which forecast updating and risk sharing are in the best interest of the OEM.     

Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.     

Design and relative efficiency in two-phase studies

Many two-phase sampling designs have been applied in practice to obtain efficient estimates of regression parameters while minimizing the cost of data collection. This research investigates two-phase sampling designs for so-called expensive variable problems, and compares them with one-phase designs. Closed form expressions for the asymptotic relative efficiency of maximum likelihood estimators from the two designs are derived for parametric normal models, providing insight into the available information for regression coefficients under the two designs. We further discuss when we should apply the two-phase design and how to choose the sample sizes for two-phase samples. Our numerical study indicates that the results can be applied to more general settings.     

The Touchard distribution

We present a novel model, which is a two-parameter extension of the Poisson distribution. Its normalizing constant is related to the Touchard polynomials, hence the name of this model. It is a flexible distribution that can account for both under- or overdispersion and concentration of zeros that are frequently found in non-Poisson count data. In contrast to some other generalizations, the Hessian matrix for maximum likelihood estimation of the Touchard parameters has a simple form. We exemplify with three data sets, showing that our suggested model is a competitive candidate for fitting non-Poisson counts.     

Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs.     

Linguistic competition and education spending in Spain 1992–2008

Linguistic competition occurs when two or more linguistic groups vie against each other for resources from the same state. What are the effects of this competition on education spending? In this paper, we examine two competing explanations. On the one hand, there is the claim that increasing levels of ethno-linguistic diversity can decrease education spending. On the other hand, there is also the argument that education spending is higher when there is electoral competition. Using a newly assembled dataset of education spending at the subnational level for Spain (1992–2008), we test these two arguments. We find (1) while ethno-linguistic diversity matters for spending, the effect is not in the expected direction and (2) electoral competition can affect education spending. We also find that the type of education curriculum (monolingual versus bilingual) can moderate the effects of ethno-linguistic diversity. These results shed light on the commonly held belief that diversity stunts education spending.     

What does empathy sound like in social work communication? A mixed‐methods study of empathy in child protection social work practice

It is widely accepted that empathy is important for social work practice, yet there are multiple dimensions of empathy and comparatively few studies of empathy as a component of social work skill. To date, published studies have been quantitative, and as a result, we know little about how social workers demonstrate empathy in practice or what skilled empathic practice in child and family social work might sound like. This study contributes to the development of understanding of empathy as a social work skill through a mixed‐methods analysis of 110 audio recordings of meetings in a child protection service between workers and parents, applying a coding framework for analysis. Findings indicate that workers who demonstrate higher levels of empathy skill use more open questions and reflections in their communication with parents. Further, they demonstrate curiosity about and make efforts to understand parents' often difficult experiences, including a focus on emotions. That the majority of workers were found not to demonstrate a high level of empathy skill presents concerns to be considered by the social work profession. A deeper understanding of empathy presents an opportunity for an increased focus in organizations to enable workers to demonstrate empathy towards families they work with.