Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Midterm Election Forecasts?

We compare the predictive accuracy of preelection polls usingtwo types of sampling frames, random digit dialing (RDD) andregistration-based sampling (RBS). The latter involves stratifiedrandom sampling from voter registration lists. In order to assessthe accuracy with which RDD and RBS predict election outcomes,we collaborated with the Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and CBSNews polls, which conducted parallel RDD and RBS surveys inMaryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota prior tothe November 5, 2002, elections. The results suggest that inthe gubernatorial and congressional elections studied, RBS performedas well, if not better, than RDD, both in terms of forecastingaccuracy and cost.     

On the Arrow and Wilson impossibility theorems

A social welfare function is Arrovian if it is transitive-valued and satisfies IIA. We examine the logical relation between the statements (A) If f is Arrovian with domain 𝒫 then it is dictatorial if it satisfies the Pareto criterion and (W) If f is Arrovian with domain 𝒫 then it is dictatorial or inversely dictatorial if it is non-null and satisfies non-imposition. We exhibit a class of domains on which W implies A and another on which A implies W. We also present examples of domains on which one of the statements is true and the other is false. Received: 23 October 2001/Accepted: 19 March 2002 We thank our two referees for their suggestions for improving the exposition.     

Uneven Development and Local Inequality in the U.S. South: The Role of Outside Investment,Landed Elites,and Racial Dynamics

This paper develops a historically contingent understanding of patterns of uneven economic development in the U.S. South. We conceptualize spatial variation in economic development and its consequences for inequality to be embedded in both local and international dynamics. The character of local economic development, it is argued, reflects the organizational base and heterogeneity of local elites, the divisions and relative power of nonelites, and the embeddedness of the local political economy in national and world systems of politics and production. These ideas are developed and made historically and spatially specific through an analysis of uneven development in one Southern state, North Carolina. Our findings suggest that contemporary patterns of uneven development and the resulting income deprivations and inequality reflect conditional interactions between elite economic projects and racial divisions within the working class. We find that outside investment seems to reproduce rather than disrupt local patterns of inequality and poverty.     

Fishermens blues: Factors related to accidents and safety among Newfoundland fishermen

The fisheries is one of the most dangerous industries in Canada. Possible contributory causes of the high rate of injuries are a fatalistic attitude to accidents and safety, and a high level of anxiety and worry among fishermen. These characteristics would be expected to lead to less attention to safety procedures and a consequent greater risk of accidents. The purpose of this study was to explore fishermen's levels of fatalism and anxiety; to consider the relationship of these factors to the frequency of accidents and extent of safety precautions; and to explore fishermen's explanations of and suggested solutions to the high rate of injuries at sea. The study was conducted among a sample of inshore fishermen who fished in the waters around Newfoundland. Fifty-five fishermen completed a questionnaire that requested basic demographic details, information on injuries obtained, safety precautions taken, perceived locus of control over accidents, anxiety, worries and explanations for accidents and possible measures to reduce them. Analysis of their replies revealed that the fishermen reported a high level of anxiety and that those who reported most anxiety reported more injuries and fewer safety precautions.     

Expectancies and Mental Models as Determinants of Adolescents' Smoking Decisions

Cigarette smoking has been identified as the single most preventable source of mortality and morbidity in the United States. Experimentation with tobacco typically begins in adolescence, and smoking during this period is one of the strongest and most consistent predictors of adult smoking status. In the present paper, we review several prominent decision models that have been applied to adolescent smoking, and point out important limitations of these models. We then propose a new process-oriented framework of decision-making based on the concept of mental models, and discuss the implications of this framework for developing effective smoking prevention and cessation interventions for adolescents.     

Residential House and Zone Volumes in the United States: Empirical and Estimated Parametric Distributions

This research reports empirical distributions and estimated univariate parametric probability distributions for house volume and certain zone volumes within households for residential structures in the United States. The author derived the distributions from two separate databases. The volumes were found to be exceptionally well fit by lognormal distributions (adjusted R² >> 0.95) in almost all cases. In addition, data from one database indicates that the correlation between house volume and air changes per hour is very weak.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF THE OPTIMAL TAX ON ALCOHOL

In this paper I use a new data set to estimate the optimal alcohol tax rate. As a benchmark, the empirical results imply that the optimal tax rate is over 100 percent of the net-of-tax price. However, alcohol taxation is a second-best solution to the problems associated with alcohol abuse. I conclude that the optimal alcohol tax rate would be much lower if punishment for drunk driving were more certain and severe. Government provision of information about the health consequences of heavy drinking would also remove part of the efficiency rationale for alcohol taxes.     

St. Wolfgang College's Health

St. Wolfgang College recently decided to change its health care plan. The administration took this action after just minimum consultation with the faculty. Consequently, the faculty is disheartened, seeing the action as a reflection of the college's top down decision making process and command culture. Faculty are in a quadary as to what they can do. Further, the administration of the college has largely rebuffed the faculty's efforts to increase its involvement in governance, rejecting a faculty reform effort. The college's president has a background primarily in administration at the secondary school level. Since assuming leadership he has focused on improving physical plant. He avows a mission of enhancing the college's academic reputation and has taken actions that he and the administration believe will achieve this goal, such as dismantling two year degree programs that primarily serve disadvantaged and minority students and providing extra funding to flagship programs. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.