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781.
This article compares three value-at-risk (VaR) approximation methods suggested in the literature: Cornish and Fisher (1937), Sillitto (1969), and Liu (2010). Simulation results are obtained for three families of distributions: student-t, skewed-normal, and skewed-t. We recommend the Sillitto approximation as the best method to evaluate the VaR when the financial return has an unknown, skewed, and heavy-tailed distribution. 相似文献
782.
Donald R. Hoover 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(5):1623-1637
The recent literature contains theorems improving on both the standard Bonferroni inequality (Hoover (1990)) and the Sidak/Slepian inequalities (Glaz and Johnson (1984)), The application of these improved theorems to upper bounds for non coverage of simultaneous confidence intervals on multivariate normal variables is explored. The improved Bonferroni upper bounds always hold, while improved Sidak/Slepian bounds only apply to special cases. It is shown that improved Sidak/Slepian bounds will always hold for Normal Markov Processes, a commonly occuring and easily identifiable class of multivariate normal variables. The improved Sidak/Slepian upper bound, if it applies, is proven to be superior to the computationally equivalent improved Bonferroni bound. This improvement, however, is not great when both methods are used to determine upper bounds for Type I error in the range of .01 to .10. 相似文献
783.
An often-used scenario in marketing is that of individuals purchasing in a Poisson manner with their purchasing rates distributed gamma across the population of customers. Ehrenberg (1959) introduced the marketing community to this story and the resulting negative binomial distribution (NBD), and during the past 30 years the NBD model has been shown to work quite well. But the basic gamma/Poisson assumptions lack some face validity. In many product categories, customers purchase more regularly than the exponential. There are some individuals who will never purchase. The purpose of this article is to review briefly the literature that addresses these and other issues. The tractable results presented arise when the basic gamma/Poisson assumptions are relaxed one issue at a time. Some conjectures will be made about the robustness of the NBD when multiple deviations occur together. The NBD may work, but there are still opportunities for working on variations of the NBD theme. 相似文献
784.
John L. Czajka Sharon M. Hirabayashi Roderick J. A. Little Donald B. Rubin 《商业与经济统计学杂志》2013,31(2):117-131
This article proposes and evaluates two new methods of reweighting preliminary data to obtain estimates more closely approximating those derived from the final data set. In our motivating example, the preliminary data are an early sample of tax returns, and the final data set is the sample after all tax returns have been processed. The new methods estimate a predicted propensity for late filing for each return in the advance sample and then poststratify based on these propensity scores. Using advance and complete sample data for 1982, we demonstrate that the new methods produce advance estimates generally much closer to the final estimates than those derived from the current advance estimation techniques. The results demonstrate the value of propensity modeling, a general-purpose methodology that can be applied to a wide range of problems, including adjustment for unit nonresponse and frame undercoverage as well as statistical matching. 相似文献
785.
Donald E. Stewart 《The Australian journal of social issues》1984,19(3):196-206
An analysis of television programs telecast during peak viewing hours in Melbourne over one week uncovered the pattern of representation of family life. This version of family life was then compared with official statistics of the Australian population and families to highlight the discrepancies between reality and the mediated world of television. Several clear trends were observed. Programs were male-dominated, middle-aged biased, white Anglo-Saxon and largely middle-class oriented. Considerable discrepancy was apparent between family structures in the real world and the media world of family types. Further, analysis of marital relationships, sexual division of labour, ageing, and an evaluation of values reinforces a traditional conservative aura. It is considered that the dominant program formulae fail to recognise new social realities, and that orthodox family stereotypes could be affecting decisions made by policy makers. 相似文献
786.
Donald N. Levine 《Sociological inquiry》1996,66(3):253-266
Academic disciplines and nation-states resemble one another in the sense that both emerged worldwide as overarching categories for conferring collective identities about a century ago. During the past quarter century, however, the status of both has been challenged. Disciplines like sociology have been challenged by more salient intellectual boundaries organized around subdisciplinary, transdisciplinary, and supradisciplinary lines—a fact that helps account for sociology's response to external threats to the discipline with a sense of being in crisis. Nation-states have been similarly challenged by new jurisdictions organized around subnational, transnational, and supranational lines. Even so, these changes constitute a process of differentiation, not displacement; disciplines and nation-states are likely to persist in serving important functions. albeit reduced in scope. 相似文献
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