Deriving the Normal and Exponential Densities Using EDA Techniques

This paper shows how students in an introductory statistics course discover mathematical expressions for the normal and exponential density functions. Techniques of exploratory data analysis (EDA) are applied to large data sets, the key idea being a straight-line fit to an appropriate reexpression of the histogram.     

A Retrievable Recipe for Inverse t

Although the percentage points of the Student-t distribution have been widely tabulated, a simple approximation is given and derived in this article. The approximation can be re-derived easily, since it is based on the percentage points from the Gaussian distribution, and can thus be used for applications requiring non-integer degrees of freedom (e.g., Welch's two-sample t test) and for arbitrary significance levels (e.g., for Bonferroni multiple comparison procedures). Comparisons between this approximation and others suggested in the literature indicate three-digit accuracy for even small degrees of freedom and tail areas.     

Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?

We analyze publicly available data to estimate the causal effects of military interventions on the homicide rates in certain problematic regions in Mexico. We use the Rubin causal model to compare the post-intervention homicide rate in each intervened region to the hypothetical homicide rate for that same year had the military intervention not taken place. Because the effect of a military intervention is not confined to the municipality subject to the intervention, a nonstandard definition of units is necessary to estimate the causal effect of the intervention under the standard no-interference assumption of stable-unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA). Donor pools are created for each missing potential outcome under no intervention, thereby allowing for the estimation of unit-level causal effects. A multiple imputation approach accounts for uncertainty about the missing potential outcomes.     

Paired comparison models applied to the design of the Major League baseball play-offs

This paper presents an analysis of the eff ect of various baseball play-off configurations on the probability of advancing to the World Series. Play-off games are assumed to be independent. Several paired comparisons models are considered for modeling the probability of a home team winning a single game as a function of the winning percentages of the contestants over the course of the season. The uniform and logistic regression models are both adequate, whereas the Bradley-Terry model (modified for within-pair order eff ects, i.e. the home field advantage) is not. The single-game probabilities are then used to compute the probability of winning the play-off s under various structures. The extra round of play-off s, instituted in 1994, significantly lowers the probability of the team with the best record advancing to the World Series, whereas home field advantage and the diff erent possible play-offdraws have a minimal eff ect.     

Tree-structured analysis of treatment effects with large observational data

Treatment effect in an observational study of relatively large scale can be described as a mixture of effects among subgroups. In particular, analysis for estimating the treatment effect at the level of an entire sample potentially involves not only differential effects across subgroups of the entire study cohort, but also differential propensities – probabilities of receiving treatment given study subjects’ pretreatment history. Such complex heterogeneity is of great research interest because the analysis of treatment effects can substantially depend on the hidden data structure for effect sizes and propensities. To uncover the unseen data structure, we propose a likelihood-based regression tree method which we call marginal tree (MT). The MT method is aimed at a simultaneous assessment of differential effects and propensity scores so that both become homogeneous within each terminal node of the resultant tree structure. We assess simulation performances of the MT method by comparing it with other existing tree methods and illustrate its use with a simulated data set, where the objective is to assess the effects of dieting behavior on its subsequent emotional distress among adolescent girls.     

Additional results for 'Sequential design approaches for bioequivalence studies with crossover designs'

In 2008, this group published a paper on approaches for two‐stage crossover bioequivalence (BE) studies that allowed for the reestimation of the second‐stage sample size based on the variance estimated from the first‐stage results. The sequential methods considered used an assumed GMR of 0.95 as part of the method for determining power and sample size. This note adds results for an assumed GMR = 0.90. Two of the methods recommended for GMR = 0.95 in the earlier paper have some unacceptable increases in Type I error rate when the GMR is changed to 0.90. If a sponsor wants to assume 0.90 for the GMR, Method D is recommended. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Management Policies to Improve the Effectiveness of Multi-Station Service Organizations*

A SLAM based simulation model of a multi-station, tandem queuing structure characteristic of a variety of service systems is employed to test various design options for the system. The model is based on an extensive study of the State of Florida driver licensing offices. The multiple objectives of low time in the system for customers and the efficient use of personnel resources are employed to measure the benefits of policy options. The use of simulation analysis permits the incorporation of complex system characteristics, therefore providing a realistic representation of the effects of possible management actions. Effective methods to control labor in such systems are suggested.     

The Effects of Knowledge Management on Team Members' Ratings of Project Success and Impact*

Many organizations are trying to improve the generation and utilization of knowledge. The activities associated with these efforts are identified as organizational knowledge management (KM). While much has been written about knowledge management from the organizational level, the success of such efforts over the long run will depend upon on how KM activities impact important outcomes as perceived by those at the employee level who actually implement the activities. This study used the input‐process‐output framework of team effectiveness to investigate the relationship between selected KM‐related activities on integrated product and process development team members' satisfaction with their project's success and the impact they expected it to have on the organization. The results indicate that team‐level leadership and support (i.e., inputs), along with knowledge generation and dissemination (i.e., processes), are key drivers of member performance‐related ratings (i.e., outputs). Finally, and possibly most importantly, a number of interactions were evident suggesting that the KM processes moderate the effects of the KM inputs. These findings and their implications are discussed.