Prediction Techniques for Box–Cox Regression Models

This article reviews several techniques useful for forming point and interval predictions in regression models with Box-Cox transformed variables. The techniques reviewed—plug-in, mean squared error analysis, predictive likelihood, and stochastic simulation—take account of nonnormality and parameter uncertainty in varying degrees. A Monte Carlo study examining their small-sample accuracy indicates that uncertainty about the Box–Cox transformation parameter may be relatively unimportant. For certain parameters, deterministic point predictions are biased, and plug-in prediction intervals are also biased. Stochastic simulation, as usually carried out, leads to badly biased predictions. A modification of the usual approach renders stochastic simulation predictions largely unbiased.     

Segregation and Mortality: The Deadly Effects of Racism?

Elevated rates of mortality for African Americans compared to whites, coupled with the persistence of high levels of racial residential segregation, have directed attention to the structural manifestations of racism as potentially important pathogens for health. Using national mortality and census data for 1990 and a measure of black social isolation from whites, we examine the association between residential segregation and mortality in 107 major U.S. cities. Our analyses revealed that black social isolation tended to predict higher rates of mortality for African American males and females, although the strength of the association varied by cause of death. Socioeconomic deprivation explained a modest part of this association for black males but not for black females. Our analyses also found that a positive association between social isolation and mortality was more pronounced, for both blacks and whites, in cities that were also high on the index of dissimilarity. These findings highlight the need for research to identify the specific mechanisms and processes that link residential environments to adverse changes in health status.     

Friends of the Circuits: Interest Group Influence on Decision Making in the U.S. Courts of Appeals*

Objective. Though there is an extensive literature focused on the participation and efficacy of interest group amici curiae in the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little rigorous analysis of amici curiae in the U.S. Courts of Appeals. Here, we systematically analyze the influence of amicus curiae briefs on U.S. Court of Appeals decision making to provide insights regarding both judicial decision making and the efficacy of interest groups. Methods. We use a probit model to capture influences on appellant success in the courts of appeals from 1997–2002. Results. We find that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellant enhance the likelihood of that litigant's probability of success, but that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellee have no effect on litigation outcomes. Conclusion. Amici can help level the playing field between appellants and appellees by serving to counter the propensity to affirm in the U.S. Courts of Appeals.     

Spatial and Temporal Arrangements,Parental Authority,and Young Adults' Postdivorce Experiences

This research examines how the structure of children's time and space impacts parent–child relationship dynamics postdivorce. Our central research question is whether parent–child relationship quality and degree of perceived parental authority are associated with the amount of time spent with a parent and the type and amount of personalized space a child has at parents' homes after a divorce. We analyze the reports of 22 adolescents surveyed and interviewed in the northwestern United States in 2007. Most notably, the quality of personalized space for children, regardless of the amount of private space available, was significantly and positively related to parent–child relationship quality. Amount of time spent with a parent was also significantly and positively associated with parent–child relationship quality. Level of parental authority was partially positively associated with both quality of personalized space and amount of time spent with a parent. Our results confirm that these factors do indeed play a significant role in children's lives postdivorce and deserve more attention by families undergoing divorce and by researchers investigating the divorce experience for children and adolescents.     

Anti-Oppressive Practice and Social Work Students' Portfolios in Scotland

Anti-oppressive practice is seen by social work educators as a key approach to social work in the UK. However, controversies exist about its use in practice. Recent literature has criticised the complexities and problematics of anti-oppressive practice. An examination is made of the content of portfolios completed by social work students undertaking a final practice learning opportunity on a post-graduate programme in Scotland. The findings indicate that students gave considerable attention to power, empowerment and partnership but there was also an apparent general acceptance of agency policies, procedures and wider structural oppression. Also some aspects of social divisions and forms of oppression such as gender, age, disability and language received considerable attention while others such as ‘race’, class, sexuality and religion received less attention. Limitations of the research are noted. Suggestions for improvement in considering anti-oppressive material include a focus on both micro and macro issues, ranging from the structure for the portfolio and the content of supervision discussions through to agency policies and procedures and the national guidelines provided to social work programmes.     

In search of popular management: Sensemaking,sensegiving and storytelling in the excellence project

Critical accounts of popular management have tended to caricature the authors of this literary genre and have, furthermore, made broad claims as to the nature and potential of the organizational storytelling which features in these texts. This paper re-examines such claims and proclivities. It argues that any attempt to explore the nature of popular management or to account for the organizing potential of its storytelling must be located within an account of storytelling practice. To this end, the paper offers a critical analysis of the excellence project that is situated within a review of Tom Peters’ storyworld. Acknowledging the extent to which popular management deploys organizational storytelling in its endeavours, we offer – uniquely – a longitudinal analysis of Tom Peters' storytelling practices. Noting a tension between organizational sensegiving and organizational sensemaking processes, we argue that the storyworld of the excellence project acts to obscure the frictions, stresses and dislocations associated with the pursuit of business excellence. Highlighting the persistence of local sensemaking processes within and between those forms of public speech fostered by popular management, however, we argue that the tales which constitute the excellence project are, when viewed in context, more diverse and yet less productive than previously imagined.