Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

World Development and the Restructuring of the Industrial Economies

This paper reports on the joint SPM/CRANEC Catholic University of Milan symposium on “World Development and the Restructuring of Industrial Economies” held at Bellagio, Lake Como, Italy during the week of 10–15 September 1979. The symposium was organized to discuss the adjustments required by the industrialized economies when adapting to the changes inherent in present world development trends, as well as to help define national and international policy measures that might be used to facilitate the restructuring process. This report reviews the key issues, alternative strategies for restructuring, and policy measures for restructuring discussed at the symposium. It also offers some conclusions based on the results of the symposium.     

Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.     

The (Conditional) Resource Dilution Model: State- and Community-Level Modifications

Demography - One of the most consistent patterns in the social sciences is the relationship between sibship size and educational outcomes: those with fewer siblings outperform those with many. The...     

Semiparametric temporal process regression of survival-out-of-hospital

Lifetime Data Analysis - The recurrent/terminal event data structure has undergone considerable methodological development in the last 10–15 years. An example of the data structure that has...     

Unconditional pseudo-maximum likelihood and adaptive estimation in the presence of conditional heterogeneity of unknown form

We consider parametric non-linear regression models with additive innovations which are serially uncorrelated but not necessarily independent, and consider the consequences of maximum likelihood and related one-step iterative estimation when the innovations are treated as being iid from their unconditional density. We find that the estimators' asymptotic covariance matrices will generally differ from those that would obtain if the errors actually were iid, except for the special case of strictly exogenous regressors. One important application of these results is to analysis of the properties of adaptive estimators, which employ nonparametric kernel estimates of the unconditional density of the disturbances in the construction of one-step iterative estimators. In the presence of strictly exogenous regressors, adaptive estimators are found to be asymptotically equivalent to the one-step iterative estimators that use the correct unconditional density. We illustrate our results through a brief Monte Carlo study.     

Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation

Many important regulatory decisions are taken by professionals employing limited and conflicting evidence. We conduct an experiment in a merger regulation setting, identifying the role of different standards of proof, volumes of evidence, cost of error and professional or lay decision making. The experiment was conducted on current practitioners from 11 different jurisdictions, in addition to student subjects. Legal standards of proof significantly affect decisions. There are specific differences because of professional judgment, including in how error costs and volume of evidence are taken into account. We narrow the range of explanations for why professional decision making matters.     

The Present and Future of MFT Doctoral Education in Research-Focused Universities

Doctoral education is greatly impacted by context, and the large majority of marital and family therapy (MFT) doctoral programs are PhD programs in research-focused universities. I believe their primary mission is to equip students to become scientist–practitioners and do original research that will advance the science of the discipline, whereas the mission of the typical master’s program is to produce strong practitioners who are research informed. It is the emphasis on the scientific method, not the content specialty area, that should be the hallmark of PhD programs in research-focused contexts. I describe metrics for success that include not only research productivity but also the development of a supportive, open, flexible, and generous program culture. The research mission of these programs has been only modestly helped by the Commission on Accreditation for Marriage and Family Therapy Education process and the programs are largely not doing the programmatic intervention research that the field needs. As the universities that house these programs are also “raising the bar,” the long-term viability of the programs themselves will likely hinge on success in this arena.