透视毛泽东

毛泽东的经济思想异常平实,经济战略注重实用.在社会主义世界里,毛泽东对斯大林主义的批评是最全面和最深刻的,他不止干批判而且着手创造不同干苏联式的社会主义."大跃进"与"文革"一样,长远来看,也有一些积极的结果.毛泽东"造反有理"的断言结合文革的经验使中国人相信要让党内官僚真正负责就必须建立起民主制度.毛泽东的"群众路线"不仅与他的认识论紧密联系,而且还表现在通过实践而发现真理,又通过实践证实真理和发展真理.他本质上倾向民主,但是由于环境所迫不得不大权独揽,他这么做正是为了捍卫民主的价值.     

Using Split-Population Models to Examine Predictors of the Probability and Timing of Parity Progression

Survival models are widely used in demography to analyse the timing of events such as death or leaving school. However, for events such as marriage or childbirth that are not experienced by everyone, standard survival analysis conflates the speed of progressing to an event with the proportion that never experience the event. The problem can be overcome by applying a ‘split population’ or ‘cure’ survival time model which splits the population into those who eventually experience the event and those who do not, and determines the speed of progression for the former. This paper demonstrates the use of split-population models in examining variables which affect the propensity and timing of additional births. The data analysed are from a sample of women from the 2001 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (N = 4,611). We model the propensity and time to have another child given sex composition of existing children, number of siblings and age at first birth for three cohorts of women. The study finds evidence of a preference for a mixed-sex composition, and an increased propensity for women with two boys to try for a third child. Women in later cohorts tend to have more children if they themselves come from larger families. Age at first birth is strongly associated with the propensity to have another child and with the speed of progression.     

A reply to Mr Palloni’s comments

The protracted and inconclusive debate on the cause of the post-war mortality decline in Ceylon reflects our ignorance of this complex historical event and although I am reticent to prolong this already lengthy discussion, I feel that it is necessary to reply to certain points raised by Mr Palloni. The object of my paper ‘The Decline of Mortality in Ceylon and the Demographic Effects of Malaria Control’⁹ was to re-examine some of the past work on this subject in order to attempt a synthesis of previous theories, was not, however, intended to provide a definitive account of all the causal mechanisms underlying the decline of mortality as it is my view that the data are insufficient for such an undertaking. In the reappraisal I was mainly concerned with the validity of Newman’s regression model and, as far as the data would permit, an assessment of Meegama’s thesis that there were significant disturbing variables which confounded the simple regression of mortality decline and malaria prevalence. I will try first to respond to Mr Palloni’s specific substantive points and then go on to consider the broader question of regression models.     

Implementing an Early Intervention Program for Residential Students Who Present With Suicide Risk: A Case Study

Abstract

Objective: This case study examined the effects of an early intervention program designed to respond to residential college students demonstrating risk for suicide. Participants: Participants were 108 undergraduates at a large northeastern public university referred to an early intervention program subsequent to presenting with risk factors for suicide between Fall 2004 and Spring 2011. Methods: Data were collected from archival records to examine quality of early intervention services, student retention, and grade point average (GPA) during the semesters prior to, during, and subsequent to the referral incident. Results: Program implementation was timely and responsive to student needs; students successfully completing the early intervention program remained in school and demonstrated small but significant rebounds in GPA the semester subsequent to the incident. Conclusions: There are benefits associated with the implementation of early intervention programs designed to respond to students manifesting risk for suicide, such as connecting the student to vital services and support networks.     

将休闲游客纳入海洋保护区规划——以加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚地区的游艇研究为例

海洋保护区(MPAs)与海洋功能区划的社会目标和生态目标若要实现,必须得到利益相关方的理解。本文以游憩机会序列(ROS)和游憩冲突模型为基础,考察了加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚海洋保护区里面的游艇者。笔者在夏季对到访该地区的游艇者(n=543)进行了问卷调查。调查结果显示,游艇者对环境的偏好各异,证明应该以游憩机会序列为基础进行海洋保护区规划与海洋功能区划。站在游艇者这一群体的角度,他们最看重的是自然环境,帆船驾驶者比汽艇驾驶者更倾向于自然和安静的环境,而汽艇驾驶者则比帆船驾驶者更倾向于以建成设施和采掘活动为特征的环境。有些海洋活动则成为游艇者冲突的根源,包括私人船只、商业赏鲸船只以及贝类水产养殖。本文通过分析指出,有些冲突可以通过海洋功能区划解决,而另外一些最好是通过教育和沟通的方式。文末还针对海洋保护区的管理及未来的研究方向提出了建议。     

The Use of Social Surveys to Measure Drought and the Impact of Drought

Although the term drought is widely used, defining it is conceptually and technically difficult and there is no generally accepted definition. This article uses data from an Australian social survey of people living in agricultural areas to test the validity of using general social surveys to ask respondents whether they are living in an area that is drought affected. Strong evidence is found that the survey based self-report measure of drought is both internally consistent and correlated with the standard Australian meteorological (rainfall deficit) measures of drought and thus provides a valid measure of whether individuals are experiencing the drought. The relationship between self-report drought and the standard meteorological measure of drought and financial hardship and changes in financial position is estimated. While a negative association between drought and financial position is found for both measures, the relationship is stronger for the self-report than the meteorological definition. The self-report measure is more closely linked to the economic, social and community impacts of low rainfall and provides greater flexibility in the geographic area over which drought is measured—thus survey data about drought allows respondents to define the area in way which is meteorologically, topographically or agriculturally meaningful.