阿拉善蒙古与清廷联姻述评

阿拉善蒙古是清朝皇帝实行政治联姻的重点部落,有清一代,该部与清皇家的婚姻始终不断。本文以清皇家族谱《玉牒》为主,结合其他文献,对阿拉善蒙古与清皇家的联姻情况作了比较全面的揭示,并对联姻的特点及其与清朝统治的关系以及由此产生的满、蒙古、汉血缘融合等问题进行了分析。     

转变我国经济发展方式的政策建议

一、我国转变经济发展方式的主要内涵 党的十七大报告提出要“加快转变经济发展方式．推动产业结构优化升级”．首次将党的十四届五中全会提出的“转变经济增长方式”改为“转变经济发展方式”。为此,我们有必要首先了解两者的内涵。     

论资源型城市旅游资源的开发——以山西晋中为例

推进资源型城市产业转型要因地制宜,发挥比较优势,实现可持续发展。晋中市面临着产业转型的压力,同时又拥有丰富的旅游资源,这对晋中市的转型跨越发展是良好的契机,实施旅游替代战略应该是晋中当前的理想选择。通过对晋中旅游资源现状的总结研究,得出晋中市旅游产业深度开发以及特有资源开发的可持续发展模式,其结论可以为晋中的经济转型提供政策参考。     

李大钊人民群众观述论

人民群众观是关于人民群众是谁、如何看待人民群众、怎样处理与人民群众关系等一系列重大问题思想认识的理论形态。李大钊基于坚定的人民立场和真挚的人民情怀,以唯物史观为认识工具,以中国实际和中国革命进程为现实基础,以人的平等、自由、富庶为终极价值目标,以"平民主义"为核心范畴,构建起属于马克思主义谱系的人民群众观。在"Democracy"的多种汉译词语中,李大钊主选了"平民主义"。在李大钊的语境中,"平民"一指集合意义上的人民,二指占社会成员或国民绝大多数的普通民众,三指平等、自由之民。李大钊"平民"范畴的多义性决定了其"平民主义"意蕴的多维性。以"平民主义"为核心范畴的李大钊人民群众观的思想主张主要有:爱民忧民重民生,人民是历史的主体,人民是真正的英雄,人民亟需教育、组织和训练,没有妇女的解放就没有人类的解放,知识青年须走与民众相结合的道路等。李大钊是中国近现代之交新型人民群众观的开创者,是中国共产党人民群众观的奠基人。     

Parameter estimation for multivariate diffusion processes with the time inhomogeneously positive semidefinite diffusion matrix

Statistical inference for the diffusion coefficients of multivariate diffusion processes has been well established in recent years; however, it is not the case for the drift coefficients. Furthermore, most existing estimation methods for the drift coefficients are proposed under the assumption that the diffusion matrix is positive definite and time homogeneous. In this article, we put forward two estimation approaches for estimating the drift coefficients of the multivariate diffusion models with the time inhomogeneously positive semidefinite diffusion matrix. They are maximum likelihood estimation methods based on both the martingale representation theorem and conditional characteristic functions and the generalized method of moments based on conditional characteristic functions, respectively. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the generalized method of moments estimation are also proved in this article. Simulation results demonstrate that these methods work well.     

政府采购招标结构模型的非参数识别与估计

为了揭示政府采购市场的定价机制,探究招标活动的经济机理,本文首先提出了一种基于可观测成交价(即赢价)建立招标结构模型的方法,分析了博弈均衡的分布;然后讨论了该模型的非参数识别,提出了一种三阶段非参数核估计方法.最后,以中央单位集中采购打印机为例,估计了政府采购招标的成本分布和期望供给曲线.研究发现,当前的政府采购机制改革有效地降低了采购成本;对于附加成本较高的商品,投标人存在成本转移行为.     

On robustness of the Shiryaev–Roberts change-point detection procedure under parameter misspecification in the post-change distribution

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk.     

Asymptotic expansions of density of normalized extremes from logarithmic general error distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of the log-normal distribution. In this paper, the asymptotic expansions of densities of normalized maximum from logarithmic general error distribution are derived under two different kinds of normalized constants. By applying the main results, the higher-order expansions of moments of maxima are established.     

教育扩张对大学毕业生收入的影响——基于断点回归设计分析

本文使用2012年"中国劳动力动态调查"数据②,基于断点回归方法评估高等教育扩招政策对收入的影响.本文的实证研究主要发现扩招政策对不同收入群体的影响不同,对低收入群体并无显著影响,但显著提高了高收入群体的收入,说明扩招促使高收入群体的高等教育收益高于低收入群体,这表明在一定程度上高等教育扩招政策并不利于社会公平,可能会造成居民收入差距进一步扩大.