On the Assessment of Monte Carlo Error in Simulation-Based Statistical Analyses

Statistical experiments, more commonly referred to as Monte Carlo or simulation studies, are used to study the behavior of statistical methods and measures under controlled situations. Whereas recent computing and methodological advances have permitted increased efficiency in the simulation process, known as variance reduction, such experiments remain limited by their finite nature and hence are subject to uncertainty; when a simulation is run more than once, different results are obtained. However, virtually no emphasis has been placed on reporting the uncertainty, referred to here as Monte Carlo error, associated with simulation results in the published literature, or on justifying the number of replications used. These deserve broader consideration. Here we present a series of simple and practical methods for estimating Monte Carlo error as well as determining the number of replications required to achieve a desired level of accuracy. The issues and methods are demonstrated with two simple examples, one evaluating operating characteristics of the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters in logistic regression and the other in the context of using the bootstrap to obtain 95% confidence intervals. The results suggest that in many settings, Monte Carlo error may be more substantial than traditionally thought.     

历史分析与比较政治

本文讨论了比较政治学中历史研究的主要分析方法.第一类是因果分析法,包括横截面分析法和样本内分析法.第二类是时序分析法,包括对路径依赖和发展顺序的分析.本文认为,历史分析与众不同的分析方法使它成为比较政治研究中有力的分析工具.     

丹托、历史与人类生存的悲剧

历史哲学是当代哲学的灰姑娘,哲学家们从不认为历史哲学家处理的主题关乎任何重大的理论旨趣和紧迫性。在他们眼里,历史哲学关心的问题无非就是哲学家们在别处取得的成果如何能够或者应该怎样运用到历史写作领域中,而且当代历史哲学家在改变其同事所给予的较低评价方面也少有作为。本文将论证丹托在持此种观点的历史哲学家中是一个例外,因为他关于表现的哲学可以帮助我们理解文本是如何与其对象相联系的。(20世纪)语言哲学的主要缺点无疑就是,它从不费心去探究文本的哲学奥秘。历史写作是一座哲学金矿,在这点上我们必须感谢丹托的提醒。     

Time to listen: strategies to improve hospital-based postnatal care

BACKGROUND: In Australia and internationally, women report high levels of dissatisfaction with hospital-based postnatal care. AIM: To design and implement strategies to improve hospital-based postnatal care at a Sydney metropolitan hospital. METHOD: This was an Action Research study. In Phase One, midwives considered the literature and participated in group discussions and interviews to determine their perceptions of postnatal care and the factors that facilitate or hinder the provision of quality care. In Phase Two, midwives participated in 12 working group meetings to design strategies to improve care. RESULTS: Several important principles of postnatal care were described, including building a relationship with women, meeting their individual needs, being flexible in approach and providing continuity of care. 'Listening to women', 'being there,' and 'normalising experiences and expectations' were believed to be critical to achieving these principles. A key strategy 'One to One Time' was designed to provide women with an uninterrupted period of time each day with a midwife who was available to listen to their needs and concerns and discuss issues related to their health and that of their baby. CONCLUSION: Midwives designed and implemented strategies that they believed would improve in-hospital postnatal care.     

中小企业服务体系建设与信息咨询业发展──常州市中小企业问卷调查

苏南的中小企业在市场竞争的压力下,已经从数量扩张向体制改革、结构调整、技术创新和布局集中转变,但经营状况不容乐观。培育中小企业社会化服务体系,加强与完善中小企业立法,改善中小企业的融资环境,帮助中小企业充分利用信息咨询系统进行决策和管理,对中小企业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。     

政治决策实施过程中的价值冲突

在政治决策过程中会遇到不可回避的原则冲突。不同原则由不同的道德理论支撑,诸如实用主义或专制主义。政治决策的实施力度与当代社会发展同步增加。探讨在公共社会生活中道德理论实施的前景和可能,是十分重要的。     

农业企业的盈余操控更为严重吗?——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

采用2007—2014年中国沪深两市A股上市公司数据,研究行业特征和盈利能力对上市公司盈余管理水平的影响,实证分析结果表明:农业上市公司较非农上市公司具有更高的应计盈余管理水平和真实盈余管理水平;上市公司的盈利能力与应计盈余管理水平正相关,而与真实盈余管理水平负相关;较高的盈利能力强化了行业特征对真实盈余管理水平的正向影响,而对应计盈余管理水平则不具有这种影响。该研究不仅证实了农业上市公司较非农上市公司实施了更为严重的盈余操控,还揭示出上市公司的盈利能力对应计盈余管理水平和真实盈余管理水平的影响存在异质性以及盈利能力对行业特征与两种盈余管理水平之间关系的调节作用也存在异质性。     

康德、 尼采与法国大革命

通对康德、 尼采关于法国大革命和启蒙思想观点进行比较研究,从历史、 道德和批判视角对法国大革命作用问题加以探讨.康德论证的主要困难与他对公民起义权的怀疑态度和称赞法国大革命成果之间臆想的矛盾无关,而与他批判的主要任务与界限相联系;相反,尼采批判的视角明显扩大,但回避康德论证中一个关键的法律层面,否认存在自然和平等权利.     

数字营销:过去、现在与将来(一)

数字营销的第一阶段:2000-2004 2000年之所以可以成为数字营销历史的起点,主要有如下几点原因: 首先,关注数字互动营销的学术研究在2000年前后开始大量增加.《直效营销杂志》(Journal of Direct Marketing)在1998年更名为《互动营销杂志》(Journal of Interactive Marketing)并开始发行.