Observing the Delivery of a Domiciliary Support Service

This paper describes a study of the work of domiciliary support services which have been developed under the All-Wales Strategy for services to people with learning difficulties. The study employed direct observation methodology to describe the pattern of activities of domiciliary support workers and their clients. Twenty-eight sessions were observed, with the work of the domiciliary support worker with each client being observed twice. The pattern of work observed broadly fell into four categories: physical care in the family home, sitting-in, support for skill development and support in community activities. The results revealed that while support workers worked with skill and sensitivity in the family home they require further guidance and support if they are to assist successfully in skill development and community integration activities.     

Predictability of demographic variables in the short run

In assessing the performance of population forecasts, it is useful to have a standard with which the forecast errors can be compared. Univariate time series models may provide such a standard. Mean forecast errors of time series models indicate to what extent the movement of a variable could have been predicted from its own past. These errors show the degree of predictability that is attainable, at least in a given period. In this paper three times series methods (exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins method, and structural time series models) are applied to Dutch data on births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, and emigrants. The variability of prediction errors between different periods is examined. The possibility that univariate predictions can be improved by using quarterly or monthly data instead of annual data is tested.     

Interviewing as social interaction

This paper, based on the premise that the interview is a unique form of social interaction and, as such, deserves greater attention, addresses the interactional dynamics of the interview by weaving experience into analysis, as well as reviewing relevant literature. Four types of interviewing situations are distinguished, with the focus of discussion on two of these types (survey-interviewing and professional-interviewing), specifically in regard to varying interactional effects. The author concentrates on the focused or indepth interview, organizing the discussion around the sequence of events which contribute to the construction of the focused interviewing situation, drawing examples from her interviewing experience. The aim is to emphasize the differences between the indepth and other types of interviewing methods. I would like to thank Harriet Gross and Muriel Beadle for editorial advice.     

Un critère de choix de variables en analyse en composantes principales fondé sur des modèles graphiques gaussiens particuliers

We focus on the problem of selection of a subset of the variables so as to preserve the multivariate data structure that a principal-components analysis of the initial variables would reveal. We propose a new method based on some adapted Gaussian graphical models. This method is then compared with those developed by Bonifas et al. (1984) and Krzanowski (1987a, b). It appears that the criteria for all methods consider the same correlation submatrices and often lead to similar results. The proposed approach offers some guidance as to the number of variables to be selected. In particular, Akaike's information criterion is used.     

20世纪80年代末以来两汉园林史研究综述

从两汉园林的基本概况、特点、造园技术、社会功能、造园思想以及研究中存在的问题等几个方面总结1980年代末以来国内外关于两汉时期园林史的研究成果,对主要论文和专著予以摘要性的介绍。     

与时俱进保持党的先进性

党的先进性直接关系到党的生死存亡。江泽民总书记在“七一”讲话中系统阐述了“三个代表”重要思想的科学内涵 ,其核心就是如何保持党的先进性。江总书记在“五三一”讲话中再次强调党的先进性是具体的历史的。本文从四个方面论述了党的先进性的科学内涵、党的先进性的历史发展以及保持党的先进性应采取的措施。     

电气工程及其自动化专业建设与实践

对华东船舶工业学院电气工程及其自动化专业建设、改革进行探讨与总结。着重阐述专业知识体系结构内容、专业方向的设置及围绕专业方向的实验设施和实践性教学环节的建设、专业发展特色、师资队伍的建设、工程综合素质和能力培养目标。在以上诸多方面都取得了比较满意的结果