Transform methods for the hypergeometric distribution

Two new methods for computing with hypergeometric distributions on lattice points are presented. One uses Fourier analysis, and the other uses Gröbner bases in the Weyl algebra. Both are very general and apply to log-linear models that are graphical or non-graphical.     

Patterns of delinquent careers: An assessment of three perspectives

The literature on careers of juvenile delinquents has been divided as to whether or not career specialization occurs. It has recently been proposed that the careers of delinquents may be viewed as arising from a Markov process with the observed arrest histories the result of a series of stochastic events. This approach has considerable appeal for it provides a wealth of information about criminal behavior, including predictions concerning the length and diversification of a delinquent career, the long-run distribution of various types of crimes, the extent of specialization in delinquency, and offense switching over the course of a delinquent career. In the present paper, the career patterns for a sample of highly delinquent, incarcerated juveniles are investigated. Although some support is found for specialization in delinquent careers, especially among robbery offenders, the findings generally support situational theories of crime.     

Wildcat strikes in U.S. manufacturing, 1960–1977

Using data from theBureau of Labor Statistics: Historical File, a model of wildcat strike incidence is estimated. The model supports the hypothesis that the incidence of wildcat strikes is related to the underlying relationship between the parties. In addition, national economic and political trends, industry-specific factors, and firm-specific factors have an impact on strike activity.     

Employment-at-will: An empirical analysis

State courts differ on the employment-at-will doctrine. Most allow maximum employer discretion in employee dismissals, but a few have added significant protections against arbitrary termination of employment. Our hypothesis, tested via a probit model, is that this variation among states can be explained by a combination of statewide economic and demographic characteristics. The model correctly predicts the employment-at-will position of 47 of 50 states.     

Delinquent Career-Lines: A Conceptual Link Between Theory and Juvenile Offenses*

Theories of delinquent behavior have failed to adequately explain the seeming lack of specialization or development in the delinquent careers of chronic offenders. The extent to which delinquents specialize in their criminal careers is unclear because of inadequacies in two related areas: the offense typologies or classifications used and the failure to consider in the analysis the entire sequence of crimes. It is argued that both of these areas can benefit from utilization of the “career-line” metaphor from occupational literature. The arrest histories of a sample of 767 juveniles were analyzed with a technique—variance centroid scaling—desirable for the classification or scaling of crime. Four dimensions were discovered. An analysis of 62 careers in the sample reveals that three forms of “developmental” careers are prevalent: careers that move (1) from burglary to serious crimes against persons, (2) from status offenses to auto theft, and (3) from all crimes to drug use. The implications of these results are discussed for issues of specialization and diversity in delinquent careers and the respecification of theories and intervention strategies.     

Why the social sciences won't become high-consensus,rapid-discovery science

A research front of rapid discovery, leaving a trail of cognitive consensus behind it, is characteristic of natural sciences since about the 17th century in Europe. The basis of this high-consensus, rapid-discovery science is not empiricism, since empirical research existed in the natural sciences before the 17th century. The key is appropriation of genealogies of research technologies, which are pragmatically manipulated and modified to produce new phenomena; high consensus results because there is higher social prestige in moving ahead to new research discoveries than by continuing to dispute the interpretation of older discoveries. The social sciences have not acquired this pattern of rapid discovery with high consensus behind the research front. Their fundamental disability is not lack of empirical research, nor failure to adhere to a scientific epistemology, nor the greater ideological controversy that surrounds social topics. What is fundamentally lacking in the social sciences is a genealogy of research technology, whose manipulation reliably produces new phenomena and a rapidly moving research front. Unless the social sciences invent new research hardware, they will likely never acquire much consensus or rapid discovery. Possibilities may exist for such development stemming from research technologies in microsociology and in artificial intelligence.     

A ninth opinion

A mother relates five months of struggle to obtain a proper diagnostic study for her fifteen-year-old daughter's illness.