From “dot.org” to “dot.gov”: Professional Crossings in the Brazilian National Policy on HIV/AIDS

This article reflects on the importance of the relations between state and society in policy-making in the area of public health. Several studies in various sectors such as health, education, and social services have made similar observations on organizational dynamics and the institutionalization of different models of partnerships or contracts, often based on the analytical model of three sectors. Individuals and their networks of relationships, however, remain an almost unexplored dimension in these types of research. Against this backdrop, this study seeks to analyze the movement of HIV/AIDS activists to governmental organizations working in this same field. The analysis raises questions concerning the forms of individual and institutional learning that help to maintain the distinct character of innovation of the Brazilian policy. Professionals who cross the borders hold a different profile once they have accumulated experience working with grassroots and local NGOs, and have also had the chance to be trained and enhance their technical and managerial capacities, since the government has supported NGOs for a long period. When combined, these experiences allow them to maintain relationships with social movements and give them the ability to navigate through the government bureaucracy and handle technical information about fighting AIDS epidemics, making it possible for them to negotiate strategic collaborations reflecting the interests of different groups. Hence, they constantly reflect on the differences between government and social spaces, and keep questioning and modifying their roles in the light of potential and existing complementarities.     

Perceptual aspects of the use of faucets (taps)

This paper presents an assessment with simulated activities with the aim of analyzing the perception of ease / difficulty of the use of faucets (taps) handles by 180 Brazilian adults. Five different handles faucets were activated for subsequent collection of perceptual data. The procedures were based on main recommendations for biomedical ethics and human research. The results indicate that handles with levers are significantly (p ≤ 0.05) easier to use. The most difficult are characterized by not having support points for the rotation (levers) or more points of pressure concentration in the hand.     

Bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model: estimation and diagnostic analysis

In this paper, we discuss the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, in which we have modeled the dependence structure of bivariate survival data through the use of frailty models. Specifically, we propose the bivariate model Birnbaum-Saunders with the following frailty distributions: gamma, positive stable and logarithmic series. We present a study of inference and diagnostic analysis for the proposed model, more concisely, are proposed a diagnostic analysis based in local influence and residual analysis to assess the fit model, as well as, to detect influential observations. In this regard, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under different perturbation schemes and we performed some simulation studies for assessing the potential of residuals to detect misspecification in the systematic component, the presence in the stochastic component of the model and to detect outliers. Finally, we apply the methodology studied to real data set from recurrence in times of infections of 38 kidney patients using a portable dialysis machine, we analyzed these data considering independence within the pairs and using the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, so that we could make a comparison and verify the importance of modeling dependence within the times of infection associated with the same patient.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

Drinking Game Participation Among Undergraduate Students Attending National Alcohol Screening Day

Abstract

Objectives, Participants, Methods: Drinking game participation has increased in popularity among college students and is associated with increased alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. The current study investigated drinking game participation among 133 undergraduates attending National Alcohol Screening Day (NASD) in April of 2007. Results: A large percentage of the sample reported lifetime (77%) and recent (52%) drinking game participation. Males were more likely to report recent participation and reported higher levels of consumption while playing drinking games. Drinking game participants were more likely to experience a range of alcohol-related problems, and the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related problems was mediated by weekly alcohol consumption. Conclusions: These results suggest that drinking game participation is a risk factor for elevated levels of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems. Programs should be developed to educate students about the risks of drinking game participation, and prevention programs like NASD should address drinking games.     

Evaluating correlated outcomes and sources of new information

This paper considers the difficulties associated with evaluating the expected value of additional information when the outcomes of various decision alternatives may be correlated. Such correlation is explained in terms of dependence of outcomes on common exogenous factors and it is argued that decisions regarding what, if any, additional information to collect should take such dependencies into account. A model-based ‘fixed-parameter’ approach to evaluating EVPI in such a context is developed and compared to the traditional ‘fixed-correlation’ approach. The results suggest that different assumptions about the issue of correlation can produce different, sometimes contradictory, conclusions about the expected value of additional information and bence, should be explicitly stated as part of any pre-posterior analysis. A hybrid model encompassing both approaches and rooted in the theory of psychology of inference is then proposed and illustrated.     

A Cross‐National Investigation of the Relationship Between Infant Walking and Language Development

The acquisition of walking has recently been linked with infant language development (Walle & Campos, 2014). If this relation reflects the consequence of an epigenetic event, then it should be present regardless of when the infant typically begins to walk, the infant's culture, and the infant's native language. This study sought to replicate the previously reported link between walking and language development in American infants and investigate whether this relation exists cross‐nationally in typically developing Chinese infants exposed to Mandarin. Urban Chinese infants not only provide a distinct linguistic and cultural population in which to study this relation but also typically begin walking approximately 6 weeks later than American infants. Our results demonstrated that (1) walking infants in both the American and Chinese samples had greater receptive and productive vocabularies than same‐aged crawling infants, (2) differences between crawling and walking infants were proportionally similar in each sample, and (3) the walking‐language relation was present for both noun and non‐noun vocabularies. These findings provide further support of a relation between infant walking onset and language development, independent of age. Avenues for future research of the processes involved in this relation, as well as additional populations of interest to investigate, are discussed.