SYMBOLIC POLITICS IN THE INFORMATION AGE: THE 1996 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS IN CYBERSPACE

This paper traces the use of the World Wide Web as a medium of political communication during the 1996 American presidential campaigns. Beginning with the Republican campaigns' use of the medium during the primary election season, a typology of uses of the web is outlined. While all campaigns felt it necessary to participate in the World Wide Web, different candidates used the medium differently. Furthermore, no campaign made full use of the much-publicized interactive capacity of the web; they used it more as a new means of transmitting traditional mass-media literature (video, graphics, etc.) and as a way of providing access to large volumes of campaign information (voting records, speeches, position papers, etc.).     

The Effects of Perceived Barriers,Role Models,and Acculturation on the Career Self‐Efficacy and Career Consideration of Hispanic Women

This study used path analysis to examine the relationship between perceived barriers, acculturation, and role model influence on the career self‐efficacy and career considerations of a sample of Hispanic women. Two path models were examined. The male‐dominated model accounted for 15% of the variance, and the female‐dominated model accounted for 26% of the variance. No relationship was found between the variables of interest and male‐dominated career self‐efficacy and consideration. However, perceived barriers were related to female‐dominated career consideration and Anglo acculturation significantly contributed to female‐dominated career self‐efficacy. Results are discussed with regard to career practice and research with Hispanic women.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making: Sometimes we have too much invested to gamble

The sunk cost effect refers to the empirical finding that people tend to let their decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time in such a way that they are more risk seeking than they would be had they not made these costs. This finding seems to be in conflict with economic theory which implies that only incremental costs and benefits should affect decisions. The effect is often explained in terms of prospect theory of (Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263–291), suggesting that sunk costs may induce a ‘loss frame,’ consequently causing risk seeking behavior. We argue that sunk costs may also result in risk aversion. In the present study we investigated the effect of time and effort investments (Behavioral Sunk Costs) on risky decision making in gain and loss situations. The results show that, in agreement with prospect theory, participants were more risk averse in gain situations than in loss situations. Moreover, incurring Behavioral Sunk Costs appeared to increase risk aversive choices, i.e., a reverse sunk cost effect. Furthermore, the results suggest that, in loss situations, Behavioral Sunk Costs mainly lead to risk aversive behavior if opting for the ‘safe’ alternative is not accompanied by an increased possibility to regret the decision.     

Combining QMRA and Epidemiology to Estimate Campylobacteriosis Incidence

The disease burden of pathogens as estimated by QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and EA (epidemiological analysis) often differs considerably. This is an unsatisfactory situation for policymakers and scientists. We explored methods to obtain a unified estimate using campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands as an example, where previous work resulted in estimates of 4.9 million (QMRA) and 90,600 (EA) cases per year. Using the maximum likelihood approach and considering EA the gold standard, the QMRA model could produce the original EA estimate by adjusting mainly the dose‐infection relationship. Considering QMRA the gold standard, the EA model could produce the original QMRA estimate by adjusting mainly the probability that a gastroenteritis case is caused by Campylobacter. A joint analysis of QMRA and EA data and models assuming identical outcomes, using a frequentist or Bayesian approach (using vague priors), resulted in estimates of 102,000 or 123,000 campylobacteriosis cases per year, respectively. These were close to the original EA estimate, and this will be related to the dissimilarity in data availability. The Bayesian approach further showed that attenuating the condition of equal outcomes immediately resulted in very different estimates of the number of campylobacteriosis cases per year and that using more informative priors had little effect on the results. In conclusion, EA was dominant in estimating the burden of campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. However, it must be noted that only statistical uncertainties were taken into account here. Taking all, usually difficult to quantify, uncertainties into account might lead to a different conclusion.     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.     

Use of incentives to motivate healthy behaviors among employees

We conducted an extensive literature search of both published and unpublished sources to assess the use and effectiveness of worksite interventions that offer financial and other incentives. Many companies are using financial incentives, either alone or in combination with other interventions, to motivate employees to adopt and maintain healthier lifestyles. These incentives include cash bonuses, paid vacation days, and health insurance rebates. Although more research is needed, the literature suggests that financial incentives, if properly implemented, may successfully promote behavioral change among employees. Eric A. Finkelstein Ph.D., M.H.A. currently conducts economic and health policy research at RTI International, teaches an undergraduate Health Economics course at Duke University, and is a member of RTI-UNC Center of Excellence in Health promotion Economics. He focuses on the economic causes and consequences of health behaviors, with a primary emphasis on behaviors related to obesity. He has published several peer-reviewed papers in this area. A recent publication entitled “National Medical Expenditures Attributable to Overweight and Obesity,” was published in Health Affairs and garnered national media attention, including a front-page story in USA Today, coverage in Time magazine and the Washington Post, and was reported in other radio, television, newspaper, and Internet outlets across the country. That paper is now routinely cited as a driving motivation to reduce obesity rates. Dr. Finkelstein currently leads several projects concerning the causes and consequences of health behaviors for the CDC and other public and private sector agencies, and frequently speaks at conferences concerning the economic impact of obesity and strategies for reducing this burden. Katherine M. Kosa, M.S. conducts economic and food and nutrition policy research at RTI International with a primary focus on consumer behavior research. She recently completed a study to examine the general public's attitude and support for obesity interventions recently introduced at the state and federal level. To inform labeling policy decisions for USDA and FDA, Ms. Kosa conducts focus groups and surveys to understand consumer attitudes, knowledge, and practices.