Neighborhood change within the Canadian ethnic mosaic, 1986–1991

This paper examines the neighborhoodpatterns in three major Canadian metropolitan areasbetween 1986 and 1991. Data are obtained from 1986 and1991 profile census files and two Special Tabulationsof 1986 and 1991 Canadian census. The data indicatethat the first pathway of neighborhood change is thediversification that takes place among charter-onlyneighborhoods with the introduction of a sizableEuropean presence, followed by Asians and then blacks. The second pathway featuring racial uniformityprimarily takes place in multi-ethnic neighborhoodscontaining one or more visible minority groups. Multivariate analysis suggests that the increase inracial and ethnic diversity in neighborhoods isrelated to the efforts of visible minorities,especially Asians, seeking out neighborhoods withEuropeans.     

CONSISTENT RANKINGS BASED ON TOTAL AND DIFFERENTIAL AMOUNTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

Rankings of decision alternatives based on total and on differential monetary amounts may in general be inconsistent under uncertainty. In the following cases, either approach is valid and hence yields consistent rankings: (i) with expected values, provided that the differential amounts have been coherently determined and are constant within states (but may differ across states); (ii) with exponential utility functions if the shared and differential amounts are statistically independent; or (iii) in a market valuation context, assuming diversification and implicit separate market values for differential and shared amounts.     

A case–control study relating railroad worker mortality to diesel exhaust exposure using a threshold regression model

A case–control study of lung cancer mortality in U.S. railroad workers in jobs with and without diesel exhaust exposure is reanalyzed using a new threshold regression methodology. The study included 1256 workers who died of lung cancer and 2385 controls who died primarily of circulatory system diseases. Diesel exhaust exposure was assessed using railroad job history from the US Railroad Retirement Board and an industrial hygiene survey. Smoking habits were available from next-of-kin and potential asbestos exposure was assessed by job history review. The new analysis reassesses lung cancer mortality and examines circulatory system disease mortality. Jobs with regular exposure to diesel exhaust had a survival pattern characterized by an initial delay in mortality, followed by a rapid deterioration of health prior to death. The pattern is seen in subjects dying of lung cancer, circulatory system diseases, and other causes. The unique pattern is illustrated using a new type of Kaplan–Meier survival plot in which the time scale represents a measure of disease progression rather than calendar time. The disease progression scale accounts for a healthy-worker effect when describing the effects of cumulative exposures on mortality.     

k-POD: A Method for k-Means Clustering of Missing Data

The k-means algorithm is often used in clustering applications but its usage requires a complete data matrix. Missing data, however, are common in many applications. Mainstream approaches to clustering missing data reduce the missing data problem to a complete data formulation through either deletion or imputation but these solutions may incur significant costs. Our k-POD method presents a simple extension of k-means clustering for missing data that works even when the missingness mechanism is unknown, when external information is unavailable, and when there is significant missingness in the data.

[Received November 2014. Revised August 2015.]     

A bayesian analysis of trend determination in economic time series

In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of our posteriors under alternative data generating processes by simulation methods. We apply our Bayesian techniques to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data and various stock price and dividend data. Contrary to DeJong and Whiteman (1989a,b,c), we do not find that the data overwhelmingly favor the existence of deterministic trends over stochastic trends. In addition, we find evidence supporting Perron's (1989) view that some of the Nelson and Plosser data are best construed as trend stationary with a change in the trend function occurring at 1929.     

Dilation-Invariant Wavelet Estimation

A wavelet method is proposed that reduces function estimation error and provides smooth reconstructions, while still estimating jumps in the function well. It is based on analyzing multiple dilated versions of the sampled function. In simulation studies, the estimator exhibits low mean squared errors without sacrificing smoothness or jump detection ability when compared to other wavelet methods.     

A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level,Trend, and Variance

We investigate whether seasonal-adjustment procedures are, at least approximately, linear data transformations. This question was initially addressed by Young and is important with respect to many issues including estimation of regression models with seasonally adjusted data. We focus on the X-11 program and rely on simulation evidence, involving linear unobserved component autoregressive integrated moving average models. We define a set of properties for the adequacy of a linear approximation to a seasonal-adjustment filter. These properties are examined through statistical tests. Next, we study the effect of X-11 seasonal adjustment on regression statistics assessing the statistical significance of the relationship between economic variables. Several empirical results involving economic data are also reported.