A Bayesian approach for non-homogeneous gamma degradation processes

A Bayesian approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique is proposed for the non-homogeneous gamma process with power-law shape function. Vague and informative priors, formalized on some quantities having a “physical” meaning, are provided. Point and interval estimation of process parameters and some functions thereof are developed, as well as prediction on some observable quantities that are useful in defining the maintenance strategy is proposed. Some useful approximations are derived for the conditional and unconditional mean and median of the residual life to reduce computational time. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to a real dataset.     

Pension reforms in Chile and social security principles, 1981–2015

Chile pioneered in Latin America not only the introduction of social security pensions, but the structural reform that privatized them and a process of “re‐reform” implementing key improvements. A Presidential Commission in Chile, appointed in 2014 to evaluate reform progress and remaining problems in the pension system, released its report in September 2015. In light of the Commission's findings, the article assesses Chile's compliance with International Labour Organization social security guiding principles: social dialogue, universal coverage, equal treatment, social solidarity, gender equity, adequacy of benefits, efficiency and affordable administrative cost, social participation in management, state role and supervision, and financial sustainability. The exercise follows three stages: the structural reform (1981–2008), the re‐reform (2008–2015), and the Presidential Commission proposals (2015)     

MANAGERS AND (SECRET) SOCIAL NETWORKS: THE INFLUENCE OF THE FREEMASONRY ON FIRM PERFORMANCE

In this paper, I study the impact of managers’ affiliations with the Freemasonry on the performances of companies. Using a unique data set of 412 companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange between 1895 and 1902, I find that young and small firms run by Masonic managers exhibited larger leverage ratios. These companies earned higher profits, although the effect is not statistically significant. Large publicly quoted corporations managed by Freemasons instead had lower profits and lower Tobin’s Q. I discuss the issue of the endogeneity of Freemasonry membership, and I use four different approaches to partially address this.     

Pricing and the Internet:: Frictionless Commerce or Pricer’s Paradise?

Are firms competing in a new world of frictionless e-commerce or is the Internet a pricer’s paradise? It is not safe, at the moment, to say that the Internet is lowering online prices, decreasing price dispersion and increasing online customer price sensitivity.The strategic issue for firms pricing on the Net is avoiding the ‘commodity trap’ and taking advantage of the ‘other side’ of information transparency. Firms should increasingly rely on finer segmentation of their customers and resort to dynamic and smart pricing, product and price versioning and bundling. Multichannel and customer lifetime value pricing will become strategic issues.     

Bayesian analysis of multivariate threshold autoregressive models with missing data

In some fields, we are forced to work with missing data in multivariate time series. Unfortunately, the data analysis in this context cannot be carried out in the same way as in the case of complete data. To deal with this problem, a Bayesian analysis of multivariate threshold autoregressive models with exogenous inputs and missing data is carried out. In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain samples from the involved posterior distributions, including threshold values and missing data. In order to identify autoregressive orders, we adapt the Bayesian variable selection method in this class of multivariate process. The number of regimes is estimated using marginal likelihood or product parameter-space strategies.     

A generalised NGINAR(1) process with inflated‐parameter geometric counting series

In this paper we propose a new stationary first‐order non‐negative integer valued autoregressive process with geometric marginals based on a generalised version of the negative binomial thinning operator. In this manner we obtain another process that we refer to as a generalised stationary integer‐valued autoregressive process of the first order with geometric marginals. This new process will enable one to tackle the problem of overdispersion inherent in the analysis of integer‐valued time series data, and contains the new geometric process as a particular case. In addition various properties of the new process, such as conditional distribution, autocorrelation structure and innovation structure, are derived. We discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. We evaluate the performance of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators by a Monte Carlo study. The proposed process is fitted to time series of number of weekly sales (economics) and weekly number of syphilis cases (medicine) illustrating its capabilities in challenging cases of highly overdispersed count data.     

The efficiency of crackdowns: a lab-in-the-field experiment in public transportations

The concentration of high-frequency controls in a limited period of time (“crackdowns”) constitutes an important feature of many law-enforcement policies around the world. In this paper, we offer a comprehensive investigation on the relative efficiency and effectiveness of various crackdown policies using a lab-in-the-field experiment with real passengers of a public transport service. We introduce a novel game, the daily public transportation game, where subjects have to decide, over many periods, whether to buy or not a ticket knowing that there might be a control. Our results show that (a) concentrated crackdowns are less effective and efficient than random controls; (b) prolonged crackdowns reduce fare-dodging during the period of intense monitoring but induce a burst of fraud as soon as they are withdrawn; (c) pre-announced controls induce more fraud in the periods without control. Overall, we also observe that real fare-dodgers fraud more in the experiment than non-fare-dodgers.     

REGULATION AND INVESTMENT

We use newly assembled data on regulation in several sectors of many OECD countries to provide evidence that regulatory reform of product markets is associated with an increase in investment. A component of reform that plays a very important role is entry liberalization, but privatization also has a substantial effect on investment. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our results are robust. (JEL: E22, L5)