口述史学与当代中国史研究

口述史学的引入,推动了当代中国史研究视角的转换,丰富了国史研究的史料来源,突出了其学术性特征,带动了其他科学研究方法的运用,并使当代中国史研究更趋于社会化、民主化。但是,口述史学方法存在的弊端也严重影响了其在当代中国史中的运用与发展。因此,研究者应积极采用口述史学研究方法,同时又要认真研究,努力避免口述史学自身所存在的弊端,促进口述史学方法在当代中国史研究领域的广泛应用和推广。     

农村妇女参政权益及其法律保障

对“农村妇女权益调查”的统计分析发现,我国农村仍存在妇女参与村民自治的积极性不高、权利意识较淡薄且从众心理较强、农村群众普遍不认同女性的管理能力等问题。为发展农村基层民主。保障我国农村妇女参政权益,应在相关法律中增加女性候选人及女性代表的具体比例以及补选措施等相关规定,补充规定各级妇女联合会对妇女参政的监督机制,增补对妇女参政比例的保障监督机制。     

土地资源管理及其行政公益诉讼制度的构建

当前,土地违法现象较为普遍,土地违法违纪在一定范围内存在。现行以行政管理为主的土地资源保护制度存在的问题。不利于国家土地保护目标的实现。建立土地行政公益诉讼制度将是应对土地资源保护不力局面的可行选择。     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

我国消费、投资、净出口与经济增长

 消费、投资与出口通常并称为拉动经济增长的三驾马车,对经济增长产生重要作用。同时,经济增长也影响着它们的规模。针对这种情况,本文通过建立联立方程模型以及脉冲响应函数,对我国经济1978-2006年的历史数据进行实证分析,揭示我国改革开放以来它们之间的关系。     

Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of the three way receiver operating characteristic surface

In many situations the diagnostic decision is not limited to a binary choice. Binary statistical tools such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) need to be expanded to address three-category classification problem. Previous authors have suggest various ways to model the extension of AUC but not the ROC surface. Only simple parametric approaches are proposed for modeling the ROC measure under the assumption that test results all follow normal distributions. We study the estimation methods of three-dimensional ROC surfaces with nonparametric and semiparametric estimators. Asymptotical results are provided as a basis for statistical inference. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of our proposed methods in finite samples. We consider an Alzheimer's disease example from a clinical study in the US as an illustration. The nonparametric and semiparametric modelling approaches for the three way ROC analysis can be readily generalized to diagnostic problems with more than three classes.     

Automating and evaluating reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions

The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler (Green in Biometrika 82:711–732, 1995) has become an invaluable device for Bayesian practitioners. However, the primary difficulty with the sampler lies with the efficient construction of transitions between competing models of possibly differing dimensionality and interpretation. We propose the use of a marginal density estimator to construct between-model proposal distributions. This provides both a step towards black-box simulation for reversible jump samplers, and a tool to examine the utility of common between-model mapping strategies. We compare the performance of our approach to well established alternatives in both time series and mixture model examples.     

中美石油安全水平对经济增长影响的对比研究——基于灰色关联分析

为科学地评价比较中美石油安全水平对经济增长的影响程度,文章采用主成分分析方法,选取采储比水平、储量接替率、消费弹性系数、原油价格波动系数、对外依存度和石油占一次能源消费比重等6个要素指标,构成一个新的石油安全指标评价体系,并利用灰色关联方法比较分析了不同时间段内中美两国的石油安全水平与经济增长之间的关联度,得出自21世纪以来,美国经济发展对石油安全水平的依赖程度要远大于中国的结论。     

中国农村公共服务评价体系研究

农村公共服务水平低下和不平衡是导致城乡差距日益扩大的重要影响因素之一。本文试图构建农村公共服务发展状况评价指标体系,并基于2006年的数据进行实证研究,给出了研究结果的进一步分析评价。     

全球一体化、后殖民批判主义和我们的对策

《共产党宣言》发表至今已经160多年,全球一体化虽然与马克思时代有了很大的不同,但马克思关于全球一体化的本质、动力、过程、前景的分析方法以及基本观点,依旧具有指导意义。在全球一体化的过程中,受害最深的仍然是落后国家。落后国家人民反抗西方资本主义经济、文化冲击和压迫的斗争在殖民时代结束后一直没有停止过,后殖民批判主义就是这种文化抗争的形式之一。我们要反对西方的文化帝国主义行径,这与后殖民批判主义的主张基本一致。在全球化趋势的今天,正确对待后殖民批判主义所坚持的立场和观点,冷静分析我国现代化建设中的问题,有必要提出我们应对全球化发展的对策。