普通民用住宅电气线路的设计

比较了国内外住宅电气的设计标准 ,论述了我国民用住宅电气用电负荷标准、进户线和分支线截面、分支回路接地线等容量的设计 .     

国际关系和对外政策研究中的预测

国际关系和对外政策的研究中经常存在"预测困境",学者们往往热衷对国际关系和对外政策的未来走向进行预测,但预测结果常常不尽如人意。通过调研发现,预测不仅在国际关系和对外政策研究中占有重要地位,也在实践中发挥重要作用,但国内外对这一领域的相关研究仍需进一步完善和发展。本文首先界定了预测的基本概念,然后在分析预测的可行性基础上,通过建立预测系统模型图来阐述预测的基本原理,最后通过案例分析法对减少预测失误的途径进行分析探讨。     

列宁社会主义建设方法论及其在中国的发展

社会主义建设的方法论 ,是社会主义建设和发展的一个至关重要的问题。列宁在此问题上进行了不懈的探索 ,并找到了正确的方法 ,这就是间接过渡的方法。列宁社会主义建设方法论 ,在中国得到了发展 ,毛泽东和邓小平为此都作了不懈的努力 ,并由邓小平创立了有中国特色的社会主义建设方法论     

反面人物悲剧性探源

反面人物可以成为悲剧人物 ,是由两个因素决定的 :一方面 ,是反面人物本身的“善”和“抗争精神”等正面价值因素的凸显 ,为观众同情和惋惜感起了桥梁、铺垫和蓄势作用 ;另一方面 ,是观众对自身的“恶”给予了“正当化”评价 ,从而对反面人物之“恶”给予了同情性理解和接受 ,进而对其遭遇厄运深感同情、怜悯和惋惜     

对职业教育集团化相关理论的再认识

近年来,职业教育集团发展迅猛,但与职教集团的发展实践相比,其理论研究显得相对滞后。从职业教育集团化办学的投入产出理论、资源依赖理论、交易费用理论、博弈论与策略联盟、产业集聚理论等相关理论进行分析,以期为我国职业教育集团化办学提供理论支撑,同时引发一些职教研究者和实践者的进一步思考。     

Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for possibly asymmetric and non-stationary time series using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, called a reversible jump MCMC, is employed in model selection and parameter estimation for possibly non-stationary and non-linear time series data. The non-linear structure is modelled by the asymmetric momentum threshold autoregressive process (MTAR) of Enders & Granger (1998) or by the asymmetric self-exciting threshold autoregressive process (SETAR) of Tong (1990). The non-stationary and non-linear feature is represented by the MTAR (or SETAR) model in which one ( 𝜌 1 ) of the AR coefficients is greater than one, and the other ( 𝜌 2 ) is smaller than one. The other non-stationary and linear, stationary and nonlinear, and stationary and linear features, represented respectively by ( 𝜌 1 = 𝜌 2 = 1 ), ( 𝜌 1 p 𝜌 2 < 1 ) and ( 𝜌 1 = 𝜌 2 < 1 ), are also considered as possible models. The reversible jump MCMC provides estimates of posterior probabilities for these four different models as well as estimates of the AR coefficients 𝜌 1 and 𝜌 2 . The proposed method is illustrated by analysing six series of US interest rates in terms of model selection, parameter estimation, and forecasting.     

论人类对知识功能的认识

文章从历史的角度系统论述了人类对知识功能的认识 ,指出人类对知识功能的认识经历了一个从摒弃到逐步接受 ,最后全面、系统论述的过程 ,指出知识将在未来国际竞争中发挥巨大的作用。     

钟树梁散文创作研究

钟树梁先生散文创作数量繁多,成果丰硕。其散文创作,讴歌了新中国成立以来成都发生的天翻地覆的变化,为城市的新气象而欢欣鼓舞,灌注了对新生活的热爱,对新事物的关注,使其理性的思辨带着生命的体温,做到了主观真挚与客观真实的较好统一。作者将其丰富的古典文学知识融于散文之中,时而引经据典,时而吟诗填词,信手拈来,适得其体,尤其是散文集中那些发自肺腑的抒情散文、悼念文章,读来感人至深。     

Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.     

准纵向一体化、关系治理与合约履行——以农业产业化经营的温氏模式为例

受农产品特性和交易复杂性的约束,农业产业化经营的"公司+农户"组织方式在破解分散经营的小农户生产与大市场之间的冲突难题时,面临订单履约率不高的窘境。订单履约率在不同的"公司+农户"模式中表现有所差异。本文的案例研究显示,温氏与农户形成的是紧密型的准纵向一体化的关系,呈现出对农户生产实行准车间化管理、畜禽产权归公司所有、双方对半分享合作剩余和交易以流程价格结算等特征。温氏借助信任、互惠、灵活性、声誉机制和有效沟通等关系治理机制,不仅降低与农户的交易成本,而且促进双方合作互动,保证交易顺利进行,提高合约履行绩效,实现公司与农户双赢发展的目标。