The Kumaraswamy generalized gamma distribution with application in survival analysis

We introduce and study the so-called Kumaraswamy generalized gamma distribution that is capable of modeling bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as the exponentiated generalized gamma, exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma, generalized Rayleigh, among others. Some structural properties of the new distribution are studied. We obtain two infinite sum representations for the moments and an expansion for the generating function. We calculate the density function of the order statistics and an expansion for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian procedure are adopted for estimating the model parameters. The usefulness of the new distribution is illustrated in two real data sets.     

Influence diagnostics in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

Patriota and Lemonte [24] introduced a quite general multivariate normal regression model. This model considers that the mean vector and the covariance matrix share the same vector of parameters. In this paper we present some influence assessment for this model, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual and generalized leverage which are discussed. Additionally, the normal curvatures for local influence studies are derived under some perturbation schemes.     

Improving Flood Risk Communication by Focusing on Prevention‐Focused Motivation

This article proposes an approach to flood risk communication that gives particular emphasis to the distinction between prevention and promotion motivation. According to E. Tory Higgins, the promotion system and the prevention system are assumed to coexist in every person, but one or the other may be temporarily or chronically more accessible. These insights have far‐reaching implications for our understanding of people's reasoning about risks. Flood risk communication framed in terms of prevention involves the notions of chance and harm, woven into a story about particular events that necessitate decisions to be more careful about safety issues and protect one's family and oneself from danger. The article describes how the insights worked out in practice, using a flood risk communication experiment among a sample from the general population in a highly populated river delta of the Netherlands. It had a posttest‐only control group design (n = 2,302). The results showed that risk communication had a large effect on the participants’ responses and that this effect was higher among chronic prevention‐focused people than among others. Any information that increased the fit between a prevention‐framed message and a person's chronic prevention motivation produced stronger situationally induced, prevention‐focused responses. This may significantly improve communication about risks. In contrast, the notion of water city projects, featuring waterside living, had more appeal to promotion‐focused people.     

The multicriteria selection of products in technological diversification strategies: an application to the Spanish automotive industry based on AHP

The economic recession, the dynamism and complexity of the markets and the generalised globalisation of the world economy have forced many companies to rethink and reorganise their industrial strategies. Through identifying and taking advantage of the key technologies of a company, this work presents a new and original methodology for dealing with a general technological diversification process. The methodology, which includes an innovative cognitive perspective and its corresponding decisional tool (decision support system) has been used to select the best product in a process of technological diversification that, along with the key technologies, identifies the sub-levels consonant to the sub-technologies and applications to sectors and products. The multicriteria selection tool employed in the proposed methodology, based on the analytic hierarchy process, allows the integration of multiple scenarios, actors and criteria, both tangible and intangible. The methodology has been applied to a case study in the Spanish automotive auxiliary sector.     

Valuation of road safety effects in cost–benefit analysis

Cost–benefit analysis is a common method for evaluating the social economic impact of transport projects, and in many of these projects the saving of human lives is an issue. This implies, within the framework of cost–benefit analysis, that a monetary value should be attached to saving human lives. This paper discusses the ‘Value of a Statistical Life’ (VoSL), a concept that is often used for monetising safety effects, in the context of road safety. Firstly, the concept of ‘willingness to pay’ for road safety and its relation to the VoSL are explained. The VoSL approach will be compared to other approaches to monetise safety effects, in particular the human capital approach and ‘quality adjusted life years’. Secondly, methods to estimate the VoSL and their applicability to road safety will be discussed. Thirdly, the paper reviews the VoSL estimates that have been found in scientific research and compares them with the values that are used in policy evaluations. Finally, a VoSL study in the Netherlands will be presented as a case study, and its applicability in policy evaluation will be illustrated.     

Revisiting the model of creative destruction: St. Jacobs,Ontario, a decade later

Ten years ago, the model of creative destruction was developed to predict the fate of communities that base their development on the commodification of rural heritage (Mitchell, C.J.A., 1998. Entrepreneurialism, commodification and creative destruction: a model of post-modern community development. Journal of Rural Studies 14, 273–286). Its application to the village of St. Jacobs, Canada, demonstrated that entrepreneurial investment had fostered the creation of a setting for aestheticized consumption. In this paper we demonstrate that creative destruction has continued to unfold in the village over the course of the past decade. The evolutionary path taken is assessed in light of current literature on rural space. It is concluded that to fully understand the transformative process, one must integrate the demands of myriad sub-cultures, whose social relations, ideologies and actions will contribute to the development of a contested landscape of consumption. This finding necessitates that modifications be made to the model and its various stages. The most significant is recognition that the “heritage-scape” is an interim state of landscape change; one that displaces the productivist landscape of the industrial period, and precedes the creation of the “neo-productivist” leisure-scape of post-industrialism. Whether or not such a “final” state is achieved is dictated by the power struggle that inevitably arises amongst sub-cultures engaged in the transformation of rural space.     

Implemented as intended? Recording family worker activities in a Families First program

In evaluating family preservation services, it is important not only to study the service outcomes and the family characteristics, but also what actually happens during the treatment. This requires a program model. This article describes how a program model works, prescribes how workers should carry it out, and describes how researchers should measure the program's characteristics. The authors use data from Families First in The Netherlands to test the model. Results show that the method of the program meets the specified characteristics. The results are important for treatment, policy, education, and evaluation research.