A zero-inflated non default rate regression model for credit scoring data

The aim of this paper is to propose a survival credit risk model that jointly accommodates three types of time-to-default found in bank loan portfolios. It leads to a new framework that extends the standard cure rate model introduced by Berkson and Gage (1952 Berkson, J., and R. P. Gage. 1952. Survival curve for cancer patients following treatment. Journal of the American Statistical Association 47 (259):501–15.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) regarding the accommodation of zero-inflations. In other words, we propose a new survival model that takes into account three different types of individuals which have so far not been jointly accounted for: (i) an individual with an event at the starting time (zero time); (ii) non susceptible for the event, or (iii) susceptible for the event. Considering this, the zero-inflated Weibull non default rate regression models, which include a multinomial logistic link for the three classes, are presented using an application for credit scoring data. The parameter estimation is reached by the maximum-likelihood estimation procedure and Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to assess its finite sample performance.     

A practical approach to the assesment of manual handling equipment for cargo: multinational abrasives in Brazil

The Manual Handling of Loads is an activity present in virtually all production system, when developed without ergonomic principles of design and sizing can generate several instances of discomfort and musculoskeletal disorders. This work was carried out to measure, set limits and risks and guide specifications for the cargo handling carts in a specific company, tracing the anthropometric profile of the productive population and performing a quantitative evaluation of forces and design models of cars used in the company.     

Colour, vision and ergonomics

This paper is based on a research project - Visual Communication and Inclusive Design-Colour, Legibility and Aged Vision, developed at the Faculty of Architecture of Lisbon. The research has the aim of determining specific design principles to be applied to visual communication design (printed) objects, in order to be easily read and perceived by all. This study target group was composed by a selection of socially active individuals, between 55 and 80 years, and we used cultural events posters as objects of study and observation. The main objective is to overlap the study of areas such as colour, vision, older people's colour vision, ergonomics, chromatic contrasts, typography and legibility. In the end we will produce a manual with guidelines and information to apply scientific knowledge into the communication design projectual practice. Within the normal aging process, visual functions gradually decline; the quality of vision worsens, colour vision and contrast sensitivity are also affected. As people's needs change along with age, design should help people and communities, and improve life quality in the present. Applying principles of visually accessible design and ergonomics, the printed design objects, (or interior spaces, urban environments, products, signage and all kinds of visually information) will be effective, easier on everyone's eyes not only for visually impaired people but also for all of us as we age.     

Production layout improvement in emergency services: a participatory approach

Volunteer fire department is a service that responds emergency situations in places where there are no military emergency services. These services need to respond quickly, because time is often responsible for the operation success besides work environment and setup time interfere with the prompt response to these calls and care efficiency. The layout design is one factor that interferes with the quick setup. In this case, the spaces arrangement can result in excessive or unnecessary movements; also the equipment provision may hinder the selection and collection of these or even create movement barriers for the workers. This work created a new layout for the emergency assistance service, considering the human factors related to work through the task analysis and workers participation on the alternatives of improvement. The results showed an alternate layout with corridors and minimization of unusable sites, allowing greater flexibility and new possibilities of requirements.     

Colour and inclusivity: a visual communication design project with older people

In an ideal world, inclusive products and services would be the standard and not the exception. This paper presents a systematic approach to an overlap between Visual Communication Design, Printed Colour and Inclusive Design, for older people, with the aim to develop of a set of research-based ageing and ergonomics-centred communication design guidelines and recommendations for printed material (analogical displays). The approach included an initial extensive literature review in the area of colour, older people and ergonomics issues and vision common diseases, communication design. The second phase was the implementation of an experiment to measure the different colour experiences of the participants in two sample groups (one in UK and another one in Portugal), using printed material, to find out the colours one should use in analogical communication material, being aware of the colour contrast importance (foreground versus background) and the difficulties experienced by older people to read and understand lettering, signs. As main contribution of this research project, we developed a set of guidelines and recommendations based on the reviewed literature and the sample groups' findings, trying to demonstrate the importance of these guidelines when conceiving a new communicational design project in a way this project will achieve vision comfort and understandability, especially for older people, in an inclusive design perspective.     

Application of ergonomics principles in underground mines through the Occupational Safety and Health Management System--OSHMS OHSAS 18.001:2007

The underground mining activity is regarded as one of the activities that cause most accidents, deaths and illnesses in the world, highlighting the coal mines. This study examined how ergonomics principles can help improve this environment, reduce the number of accidents and occupational diseases, train and empower workers and leaders and humanize the activities of the duty cycle of an underground mine. For this, it was developed a conceptual model of safety managing and health at work for the underground mining through the incorporation of ergonomics principles in the Occupational Safety and Health Management System and OHSAS 18001 (2007). The elaboration of the model was based on analysis of the environments and stages of work in underground mines and the PDCA cycle to ensure continuous improvement.     

Evil Tidings: Are Reorganizations more Successful if Employees are Informed Early?

Organizations represent deliberately designed social contexts that are characterized by multi-level hierarchies. Interests and opportunity structures at each level usually do not overlap. We suggest that one of the reasons why intentional change efforts often fail to reach their objectives is because they are likely to trigger competing social mechanisms at different levels of the hierarchy. In order to illustrate this argument, we analyze the consequences of timely communication of planned organizational changes on perceived success of reorganizations. Two competing mechanisms are derived and tested with data from a telephone survey (carried out in 2003), among a sample of n = 412 Dutch business organizations that performed a reorganization. The commitment perspective predicts that early announcement of reorganization plans to middle management increases the likelihood of reorganization success, since it increases commitment and empowers middle management. The influence mechanism predicts that early information of non-managerial employees decreases the likelihood of reorganization success, because it enables employees to use the information to their own advantage, anticipate on the strategies of management, and organize opposition against the plans. We found that timely communication with middle management indeed increases chances for success, whereas timely communication with employees correlates with reorganization failure. However, not communicating with employees has an even stronger negative effect on reorganization success. No evidence could be found for our argument that the severity of the reorganization’s expected negative effects on the workforce moderates both mechanisms.     

The emancipation of disability studies in Portugal

Despite the interest of the social sciences in issues of exclusion and inequality, the question of disability, as a key issue of reflection, remains absent from many academic areas. The emergence of disability studies owes much to contexts in which the activism of disabled people has revealed the structural conditions that oppress and neglect experiences of disability. Bearing in mind the specific features of the Portuguese socio-political environment, two lines of inquiry are developed in this text. Firstly, what are the challenges faced by Portuguese academics in making disability a central issue, enabling it to confront the silencing of the voices and experiences of disabled people in society? Secondly, how important is it for research to engage with an ethical and political paradigm that supports the rights of disabled people?     

ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SB1070 IN ARIZONA

We investigate the effectiveness of Arizona's omnibus immigration law SB1070, which made it a misdemeanor crime for an alien to not carry proper documentation and asked police to determine the immigration status of any person suspected of being an illegal alien during a lawful stop. We find that SB1070's enactment coincided with the stalling to slight recovery of the share of non‐citizen Hispanics in Arizona 3 years after the enactment of an employment verification mandate to all employers. Yet, its effectiveness in reducing the share of likely unauthorized immigrants has been minimal and questions the merit of the law. (JEL J61, J1)     

Funding and Financial Regulation for Third Sector Broadcasters: What Can Be Learned From the Australian and Canadian Experiences?

The article takes an in-depth look at the experiences Australia and Canada have had dealing with issues related to the funding and financial regulation of the third or ‘private, non-profit’ sector of broadcasting. Through the analysis of these experiences, recommendations are extracted aimed at providing policy makers and stakeholders from other jurisdictions guidance regarding how to deal with these issues.