Efficient Estimation of a Distribution Function under Quadrant Dependence

LetX₁,X₂, ..., be real-valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theX_ips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionF_n and also by a smooth kernel-type estimateF_n, by means of the segmentX₁, ...,X_n. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(F_n(t)) andnMSE (F^_n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (F_k(t)) ≤ MSE (F_n(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^_n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthh_n satisfies the requirement thatnh³_n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) ?n)/(nh_n) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofF_n(t) with respect toF^_n(t),i(n) ?n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^_n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionF_n(t)     

Circuit optimization via sequential computer experiments: design of an output buffer

In electrical engineering, circuit designs are now often optimized via circuit simulation computer models. Typically, many response variables characterize the circuit's performance. Each response is a function of many input variables, including factors that can be set in the engineering design and noise factors representing manufacturing conditions. We describe a modelling approach which is appropriate for the simulator's deterministic input–output relationships. Non-linearities and interactions are identified without explicit assumptions about the functional form. These models lead to predictors to guide the reduction of the ranges of the designable factors in a sequence of experiments. Ultimately, the predictors are used to optimize the engineering design. We also show how a visualization of the fitted relationships facilitates an understanding of the engineering trade-offs between responses. The example used to demonstrate these methods, the design of a buffer circuit, has multiple targets for the responses, representing different trade-offs between the key performance measures.     

AN EVOLUTIONARY EXPLANATION FOR ROTTEN KIDS

We explore how natural selection acts upon genes for cooperation, altruism and selfishness in an prisoner's dilemma played by family members. A key parameter determining behavior is that parents and children have different expectations of future offspring. Examining asexual and sexually reproducing populations we show that which strategy of cooperation and defection proves be stable depends on the relative reproduction potential of the players and what proportion of the population is young. "Rotten kids" with altruistic parents can be a stable outcome where reproductive success is the goal, and natural selection may lead individuals to care about their unborn progeny. (JEL D10, H31)     

Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives?

Are you prepared to ride the waves of change? Will you be ready when the pink slip arrives? Health care executives who can jump a little higher and run a little faster will go further in the draft. Those of you who are prepared for change will always be appealing to recruiters and prospective employers. How can you ride these turbulent waves and not capsize? This article explores some suggestions for positioning yourself: Proper positioning with the inevitable changes in mind will help you move your career in a forward direction.     

The medical practice as business organization

Medical practices historically have not been examined in terms of their organizational structures and of the appropriateness of their structures for survival as business entities. In this paper, we propose a model for the typical medical practice and discuss its fit with current organizational theory. It is apparent that the medical practice organization does not fit with the demands of a rapidly changing and complex environment. To survive and grow, the medical practice organization must align itself with others that have an interest and stake in the health care system, develop teamwork among physicians, bridge the gap between physicians and others in the organization, and recognize that the work done in the organization depends on other components of the organization.     

Mandatory seat belt laws in the states. A study of fatal and severe occupant injuries

This study examines the impact of mandatory seat belt laws on fatal and incapacitating injury rates in the states. Annual data for all 50 states for the period 1975-1991 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed. The general conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that seat belt laws significantly impact state fatal injury rates. Primary enforcement and all-seat coverage provisions appear to be particularly effective in reducing fatality rates.     

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. Among those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes--such as the increasing educational level of the elderly population--is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

Characterizations,length-biasing,and infinite divisibility

SupposeL(X) is the law of a positive random variableX, andZ is positive and independent ofX. Admissible solution pairs (L(X),L(Z)) are sought for the in-law equation $\hat X \cong X o Z$ °Z, where $L\left( {\hat X} \right)$ is a weighted law constructed fromL(X), and ° is a binary operation which in some sense is increasing. The class of weights includes length biasing of arbitrary order. When ° is addition and the weighting is ordinary length biasing, the class of admissibleL(X) comprises the positive infinitely divisible laws. Examples are given subsuming all known specific cases. Some extensions for general order of length-biasing are discussed.     

Assimilation and its discontents: between rhetoric and reality

"It is in [the] conceptual interstices between theory, rhetoric, and reality that paradoxes (or at least what may appear as paradoxes) emerge. By focusing on paradoxes--on evidence that contradicts orthodox expectations and points instead to assimilation's discontents--the aim of this article is to test empirically the conception of assimilation as a linear process leading to improvements in immigrant outcomes over time and generation in the United States, to unmask underlying pre-theoretical ethnocentric pretensions, and to identify areas in need of conceptual, analytical and theoretical refinement. It is precisely through the examination of paradoxical cases--in effect, deviant case analyses--that fruitful reformulations can be stimulated, considered, and advanced."