Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Early socialization of hostile attribution bias: The roles of parental attributions,parental discipline,and child attributes

The goal of this study was to examine child and parent predictors of children's hostile attribution bias (HAB) with a particular focus on exploring the associations between parents’ early attribution of child misbehavior and children's HAB in the transition to school age. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) of middle‐income families who were at risk for school‐age conduct problems. Multi‐method, multi‐informant data were collected on maternal attributions of child misbehavior, parental use of corporal punishment, and child attributes (i.e., verbal IQ, effortful control, theory of mind, and emotional understanding) at 3 years, and child HAB in ambiguous situations at 6 years. Results indicated that mothers’ internal explanations for children's misconduct may either reduce or increase children's later HAB depending on the specific content of attributions, such that mothers’ belief that children misbehave because of their internal state (i.e., emotional state or temperament) was associated with lower levels of child HAB, whereas attributing power‐based motives (i.e., manipulative, controlling intentions) in children was associated with higher levels of HAB. The findings are discussed with respect to appreciating the complexity of parents’ explanations for children's behavior, and considering parental cognition as a potential target for early identification and prevention of child HAB and related problems.     

Social inclusion through employment: the marketisation of employment support for people with learning disabilities in the United Kingdom

Employment for people with learning difficulties is considered key to their social inclusion. This contradicts the perceived un-employability of people with learning difficulties that has been part of their social identities throughout their history hitherto. The national rate of employment for people with learning difficulties remains extremely low and has barely changed in the 20?years between 1990 and 2010. This paper investigates links between learning disabilities and employment, drawing on interview-based research. It analyses the quality of experience of the minority in employment to consider whether employment can serve the inclusive purpose expected of it.     

你所不知道的普京

尽管他常常高调现身,但其形象依然模糊并难以捉摸。他在克格勃内的身份,他在前东德德累斯顿的工作经历从来都是一个谜,甚至他担任圣彼得堡市长助理时的活动,人们也都知之甚少。直到1996年8月,他到莫斯科赴任,仍有人将他贬损为一个平庸的角色。一名叶利钦时代的高官曾评价他是"一个庸才",是"叶利钦家族"的傀儡,追逐金钱的"克格勃恶棍"。也许所有这一切表象都是不准确的。事情的发展最终证明,他比十几年前几乎所有人所能认识到的那个人更加重要,也更     

The Paradox of Integration: Work-Integration Social Enterprises (WISE) and Productivist Welfare Regime in Hong Kong

After the Asian Financial Crisis, the government of Hong Kong embraced the model of work-integration social enterprise (WISE) to sustain its facilitative and productivist welfare regime. Using the WISE of Pro-Love for marginalized women as a case study, the article examines the meaning of employment and social disadvantage in the organization. The ethnographic data reveal that while the WISE encourages women to participate in the paid labor market, it constructs employment in the social enterprise as part-time jobs for supplementary family income, restricts the extension of social networks for the female workers, and reinforces the cultural stereotypes of marginalized women. The study reflects on the mechanisms of the project of WISE in the welfare contexts of Hong Kong, and argues that programs targeted at labor participation cannot be automatically translated into reduction of exclusion in other domains. Long-term planning, policy coordination, and social advocacy are necessary to achieve social integration.     

Older Adults’ Experiences of Sexual Difficulties: Qualitative Findings From the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing (ELSA)

There is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that sexual activity is important to the quality of life of older adults, and that it can be influenced by physical, psychological, and social factors. However, older adults’ experiences of sexual difficulties remain relatively unexplored. This article draws on qualitative data collected as part of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Participants answered a Sexual Relationships and Activities Questionnaire (SRA-Q), which included an open comment box for further details, 1,084 (1/7) of which were completed. These data were analyzed using Template Analysis, and findings on the experiences of sexual difficulties are presented in this article. Sexual difficulties were contextualized within the couple relationship and could be detrimental to the relationship, particularly if the partner would not seek professional help. Participants reported that sexual difficulties could also have a negative impact on psychological well-being, described mainly as frustration, depression, and sadness. For some participants the supportive nature of their relationship buffered these impacts. Few had sought professional help; those who had reported helpful and unhelpful experiences. These findings add to the limited evidence base and have implications for health care in the context of global aging and a growing recognition of older adults’ sexual rights.     

Evaluating the Quality of Social Work Supervision in UK Children’s Services: Comparing Self-Report and Independent Observations

Understanding how different forms of supervision support good social work practice and improve outcomes for people who use services is nearly impossible without reliable and valid evaluative measures. Yet the question of how best to evaluate the quality of supervision in different contexts is a complicated and as-yet-unsolved challenge. In this study, we observed 12 social work supervisors in a simulated supervision session offering support and guidance to an actor playing the part of an inexperienced social worker facing a casework-related crisis. A team of researchers analyzed these sessions using a customized skills-based coding framework. In addition, 19 social workers completed a questionnaire about their supervision experiences as provided by the same 12 supervisors. According to the coding framework, the supervisors demonstrated relatively modest skill levels, and we found low correlations among different skills. In contrast, according to the questionnaire data, supervisors had relatively high skill levels, and we found high correlations among different skills. The findings imply that although self-report remains the simplest way to evaluate supervision quality, other approaches are possible and may provide a different perspective. However, developing a reliable independent measure of supervision quality remains a noteworthy challenge.     

Quantile Regression for Location‐Scale Time Series Models with Conditional Heteroscedasticity

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models with asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors. The classical mean‐variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location‐scale models so that the quantile regression method can be naturally geared into the considered models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the quantile regression estimator is established in location‐scale time series models under mild conditions. In the application of this result to ARMA‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, more primitive conditions are deduced to obtain the asymptotic properties. For illustration, a simulation study and a real data analysis are provided.     

Life Satisfaction Judgments and Item-Order Effects Across Cultures

We conducted two studies to investigate the item-order effect on life satisfaction judgments. In Study 1, Japanese and American participants completed various life-domain satisfaction items either before or after completing general life satisfaction items. American respondents weighed the best life domains more strongly than Japanese respondents, in particular when they answered domain satisfaction items before making life satisfaction judgments. Overall, Japanese tended to weigh the worst life domains more heavily when making life satisfaction judgments than Americans. We hypothesized that the Japanese patterns of life satisfaction judgments come from the chronic attention to others’ perspective. To examine this hypothesis in Study 2, Japanese participants were exposed to either the “other are not watching” or the “other are watching” manipulation. As expected, when Japanese participants were led to believe that “others are not watching,” they judged their overall life satisfaction based more heavily on the best life domains (like Americans in Study 1).