Paired permutation testing in 2<Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis></Superscript> unreplicated factorials

Exact permutation testing of effects in unreplicated two-level multifactorial designs is developed based on the notion of realigning observations and on paired permutations. This approach preserves the exchangeability of error components for testing up tok effects. Advantages and limitations of exact permutation procedures for unreplicated factorials are discussed and a simulation study on paired permutation testing is presented.     

Lassoing the HAR Model: A Model Selection Perspective on Realized Volatility Dynamics

Realized volatility computed from high-frequency data is an important measure for many applications in finance, and its dynamics have been widely investigated. Recent notable advances that perform well include the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model which can approximate long memory, is very parsimonious, is easy to estimate, and features good out-of-sample performance. We prove that the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) recovers the lags structure of the HAR model asymptotically if it is the true model, and we present Monte Carlo evidence in finite samples. The HAR model's lags structure is not fully in agreement with the one found using the Lasso on real data. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence that there are two clear breaks in structure for most of the assets we consider. These results bring into question the appropriateness of the HAR model for realized volatility. Finally, in an out-of-sample analysis, we show equal performance of the HAR model and the Lasso approach.     

The Russian Military Spending: Modernization Not Rearmament

The Russian Federation has come back on the international scene, in the past years, thanks to its economic expansion and its political stability. The defence sector, a pillar of the Soviet regime, takes advantage of this situation and is receiving increasing funds, although the fraction of the GDP remains constant. Some experts fear a renewed arms race and a new threat for the world security. The analysis of the overall figures leads to a more moderate view. The situation of the Armed Forces suffers from many problems and it is far from being dangerous for the world stability. The core of the Army, the personnel, is in a terrible situation with a huge gap compared with other developed nations. In addition, Russia endures a demographic collapse and it will be always more difficult to find capable arms that use the new generation armaments of the proclaimed modernization plans.

The Internetization of International Migration

The Internet has revolutionized our economies, societies, and everyday lives. Many social phenomena are no longer the same as they were in the pre‐Internet era: they have been “Internetized.” We define the Internetization of international migration, and we investigate it by exploring the links between the Internet and migration outcomes all along the migration path, from migration intentions to actual migration. Our analyses leverage a number of sources, both at the micro‐ and the macro‐level, including the Gallup World Poll, the Arab Barometer, data from the International Telecommunication Union, the Italian population register, and unique register data from a migrant reception center in Southern Italy. We also distinguish between economic migrants—those who leave their country of origin with the aim of seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere—and political migrants—those who are forced to leave their countries of origin for political or conflict‐related reasons. Our findings point to a consistently positive relationship between the diffusion of the Internet, migration intentions, and migration behaviors, supporting the idea that the Internet is not necessarily a driving force of migration per se, but rather an enabling “supportive agent.” These associations are particularly relevant for economic migrants, at least for migration intentions. Further analyses underscore the importance of the Internet in providing a key informational channel which helps to define clearer migration trajectories.     

Occupational stress and biomechanical risk in a high fashion clothing company

Psychosocial discomfort may amplify job-related risk factors. The aim of this study is to evaluate job stress in a high fashion clothing company with upper limb biomechanical overload due to repetitive and forceful manual activities. Biomechanical risk was analyzed and in part reduced using the OCRA Check list. A total of 518 workers (433 females and 85 males) were investigated to determine anxiety (by STAI 1 and 2), occupational stress (using the Italian version of the Karasek Job Content Questionnaire) and perception of symptoms. Final biomechanical assessment did not reveal high risk jobs, except for cutting. Although the perception of anxiety and job insecurity was within the normal range, all the workers showed a high level of job strain (correlated with the perception of symptoms) due, probably, to very low decision latitude. It was suggested that job strain may increase the perception of symptoms. Moreover, the result of this study indicates that musculoskeletal overload has to be further analyzed since its low level is not in agreement with the level of discomfort due to the repetitive tasks.     

The Impact of Job Displacement on Employer Based Health Insurance Coverage

We analyze the effect of job displacement on the probability that employer based health insurance is made available to workers. Using fixed and random effects logit models, we do find that displacement is associated with a lower probability of having access to an employer based health insurance plan. Overall this penalty is quite small (between 2 and 3 percentage points), but it becomes substantial (about 16 percentage points) for displaced workers who have been with the current employer for less than 6 months. While we do not find evidence that the penalty associated with being displaced has worsened in recent years, we do find that employers respond to economic hardship by cutting back on fringe benefits.     

Human beings as receivers,doers and judges. The anthropological foundations of sustainable public action in the capability approach

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we argue that the capability approach can suggest avenues to reform social policies in the direction of a more valuable and sustainable conciliation between people's different engagements in community, work and family. We thus develop a theoretical framework for assessing the extent to which social policies support the freedom to lead a valuable life and to choose how to combine in a sustainable way employment, family life and active citizenship. With this aim, we study the anthropological conception at the core of the capability approach and its implications for social policy. We argue that in the capability approach human beings are seen as receivers (i.e. vulnerable beings in need of support), doers (i.e. actors able to contribute to society) and judges (i.e. political beings with aspirations, values and desires). By the same token, the capability approach sheds light on three prerequisites for developing a sustainable community, work and family interface: a) recognizing the multiple dimensions of human beings (and not seeing them only as ‘doers’ or ‘human capital’ for the economy), b) including all human beings, with their strengths and weaknesses, and allowing them to lead valuable lives (and not excluding those that cannot abide by the ‘doer’ standards), and c) insisting that the development of such an interface is the joint responsibility of the individual and the community (and not only of the individual).     

Twenty-Five Years of Materialism: Do the US and Europe Diverge?

Using data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study, we compare the trends of materialism over the last quarter of century among the US and six major European countries: France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Great Britain and Sweden. We use the definition of materialism adopted by positive psychologists. We find that the trends in Europe and in the US diverged. In the US materialism increased, while in Europe it decreased. However, some mixed patterns arise. In particular, Great Britain, Spain and Sweden showed some symptoms of an increase of materialistic values, although they were far less pronounced compared to the American ones. As far as the levels of materialism are concerned, it is interesting that, according to most of our measures, Americans were relatively less materialistic at the beginning of our period of observation. Yet, towards the end of the period they scored very high in the ranking of materialism in our sample of countries.     

A cost valuation model based on a stochastic representation of the IPAT equation

Within the framework of models for human-driven environmental impact based on the IPAT equation, we develop a model for the evolution of impact (expressed in terms of carbon dioxide emissions) and for the valuation of the economic cost associated to its reduction. We use a stochastic representation of the IPAT equation that is alternative to the STIRPAT model. This first step leads to a stochastic differential equations model that describes trends in carbon dioxide emissions on the basis of economic and demographic dynamics. As an example, we estimate the model parameters for the United States. We then use this framework to build a model for the assessment of the economic costs related to a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions for a country committed to respect an international agreement, such as the Kyoto protocol. In particular, we show that the adherence to an environmental treaty may be traced back to a problem of cost valuation and to a decision under risk. This allows us to use the mathematical tools that have been developed in quantitative finance, in the context of option pricing, to determine the expected investment that is required to reduce the emissions of a country by a certain amount and within a well-defined temporal frame.

Should i stay or should i go? The impact of age norms on leaving home

This article studies the association between social norms and the timing of leaving home. Although largely overlooked by most recent studies on leaving home, life-course theory suggests that age norms and age grading influence life-course decisions in general and leaving home in particular. We use Fishbein and Ajzen's model of "reasoned behavior" to integrate this strand of research with the more individualistic view that dominates current thinking. Using data from a Dutch panel survey, we use a Cox regression model with a control for sample selection to estimate the association between perceived age norms and the timing of leaving home. We show that perceived opinions of parents are associated with the actual timing of leaving the parental home but that societal norms and friends' norms concerning the timing of leaving home are not. In addition, the timing of leaving home is also associated with the perceived costs and benefits of leaving home and with the perceived housing market situation.