Juggling Between Parental and School Expectations: The Development of Domain‐Specific Acculturation Orientations in Early Adolescence

We examined how perceived acculturation expectations from parents and school, and ethnic discrimination predicted early adolescents’ heritage and mainstream acculturation orientations at home (private domain) and in school (public domain) one year later. We surveyed 263 early adolescents of immigrant background in Germany (M_age = 10.44 years, 60% female). Multigroup path analyses revealed that perceived acculturation expectations and ethnic discrimination were more strongly related to adolescents’ private than public acculturation orientations. Parental heritage expectations were the strongest predictor of adolescents’ acculturation orientations. Boys were more susceptible than girls to ethnic discrimination and acculturation expectations in school, which affected their private and public acculturation orientations. Results highlight the importance of integrating domain‐specific and gendered experiences when analyzing adolescents’ acculturative development.     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

A new regression model for bimodal data and applications in agriculture

We define the odd log-logistic exponential Gaussian regression with two systematic components, which extends the heteroscedastic Gaussian regression and it is suitable for bimodal data quite common in the agriculture area. We estimate the parameters by the method of maximum likelihood. Some simulations indicate that the maximum-likelihood estimators are accurate. The model assumptions are checked through case deletion and quantile residuals. The usefulness of the new regression model is illustrated by means of three real data sets in different areas of agriculture, where the data present bimodality.     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

Ice pack induced perineal analgesia after spontaneous vaginal birth: Randomized controlled trial

Background

Ice-pack is widely used for alleviating postpartum perineal pain sustained after birth related perineal trauma. However, it lacks robust evidence on timing and frequency of applications, to ensure the effective and safe use of this therapy.

Dealing with Migrants in the Central Mediterranean Route: A Legal Analysis of Recent Bilateral Agreements Between Italy and Libya

Dealing with the current flow of migrants flocking to the shores of southern European countries remains high on the international agenda. At the end of 2016, 276,957 migrants were waiting in Libya to cross the sea. Many of them were subject to human rights violations and abuses such as arbitrary detention, torture, unlawful killings, sexual exploitation and even slavery (IOM, 2017). The international response has been, so far, insufficient and new ideas and practices are urgently needed. After providing an overview of the legal framework and of the efforts carried out by the relevant international and regional organizations, this article focuses on recent treaties concluded between Italy and Libya, and argues that the new bilateral agreements represent an example of how States are responding to this challenge in an attempt to strike a balance between the need to strengthen the protection of migrants’ rights and the necessity to guarantee the security of national borders.