Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.     

The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques

Since its introduction in the first Human Development Report in 1990, the Human Development Index (HDI) has attracted great interest in policy and academic circles, as well as in the media and national audiences around the world. Its popularity can be attributed to the simplicity of its characterization of development - an average of achievements in health, education and income – and to its underlying message that development is much more than economic growth. The index was originally conceived by the late Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq, in collaboration with Amartya Sen and other scholars, as a response to their dissatisfaction with GDP as the standard measure of development. As Haq noted, “Any measure that values a gun several hundred times more than a bottle of milk is bound to raise serious questions about its relevance for human progress.” Yet the HDI’s very simplicity prompted critiques from the start, with some contending that it was too simplistic, while others who accepted its self-imposed limitations still questioned its choice of indicators and its computational methodology. This article discusses the concept and key insights learnt from the HDI, provides a detailed review of key critiques of the HDI, today and in the past, and explains the recent changes introduced to the HDI formula and indicators. Recent controversies are highlighted and placed in the context of longer running debates. The innovations to broaden the measurement of deprivations and disparities in human development are introduced, with some key global and regional insights.     

On some flaws of university rankings: The example of the SCImago report

Using France as our main example, we show there is a much scope for improving the SCImago ranking. We detect problems of nomenclature, double affiliation, aggregation and of bias toward large public-funded research organizations. The output per scholar is more important than the output per organization. The examples we cite suggest that only detailed knowledge of the situation can help in addressing the issue and take us beyond any automatic reading of the metadata.     

The Role of Physical Context,Verbal Skills,Non‐parental Care,Social Support,and Type of Parental Discipline in the Development of ToM Capacity in Five‐Year‐Old Children

The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of family context on the performance of 5‐year‐old children (N = 70) in theory of mind (ToM) tasks. The children's performances were assessed during individual sessions held at school. Children's verbal skills were assessed using the Peabody picture vocabulary test (PPVT). Interviews were also conducted with parents in the family home in order to gather sociodemographic data and to assess diverse variables of the family context. In addition to confirming the important role played by children's verbal skills in ToM, the results also supported a potential influence of family context in ToM development through variables, such as quality of non‐parental care or level of social contact and support. The educational implications of these results are discussed in relation to family intervention.     

Multivariate models for correlated count data

In this study, we deal with the problem of overdispersion beyond extra zeros for a collection of counts that can be correlated. Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial distributions have been considered. First, we propose a multivariate count model in which all counts follow the same distribution and are correlated. Then we extend this model in a sense that correlated counts may follow different distributions. To accommodate correlation among counts, we have considered correlated random effects for each individual in the mean structure, thus inducing dependency among common observations to an individual. The method is applied to real data to investigate variation in food resources use in a species of marsupial in a locality of the Brazilian Cerrado biome.     

Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration amongst Countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002–2007

Because of inconsistencies in the reported migration flows and large amounts of missing data, our knowledge of international migration patterns in the Europe is limited. Methods for overcoming data obstacles and harmonising international migration data, however, are improving. In this article, we provide a methodology for integrating various pieces of incomplete information together, including a partial set of harmonised migration flows, to estimate a complete set of migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex for the 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a synthetic data base that can be used to inform population projections, policy decisions and migration theory.     

Analysis of Exchange-Rate Target Zones Using a Limited-Dependent Rational-Expectations Model With Jumps

This article examines the exchange-rate determination in a target-zone regime when the bounds can be fixed for an extended period but are subject to occasional jumps. In this case, the behavior of the endogenous variable is affected by the agents' expectations about both the occurrence and the size of the jump. Empirical results using data for the franc/mark exchange rate provide support for the nonlinear model with time-varying realignment probability and indicate that the agents correctly anticipated most of the observed changes in the central parity.     

The size and power of analytical amd bootstrap corrections to score tests in regression models

The paper invsetigation the size and power of analyticaland computer-based (bootstrap) 8nite=saniple adjustments to score tests in a class of regression models. Our results show that score tests can display substantial size distortions and that small-sample adjustments can be quite effective. Bootstrap corrections typically perform slightly better than analytical ones     

Values,Perceived Risks and Benefits,and Acceptability of Nuclear Energy

We examined how personal values and perceptions of risks and benefits are associated with the acceptability of nuclear energy (NE). A theoretical model is tested in which beliefs about the risks and benefits of NE mediate the relationship between values and acceptability. The results showed that egoistic values are positively related to the perceived benefits and acceptability of NE. In contrast, altruistic and biospheric values were positively related to the perceived risks of NE. Although it has been argued that NE may help to combat climate change through lower CO₂ emissions, these environmental benefits were not acknowledged by people with strong biospheric values. Furthermore, results confirmed that the more risks respondents perceived, the less they were inclined to accept NE. In contrast, the more a person believed that NE has beneficial consequences, the more acceptable NE was. Finally, as expected, perceived risks and benefits were found to partly mediate the relationship between personal values and acceptability. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

An Estimation of the Economic Impact of Migrant Access on GDP: the Case of the Madrid Region

In recent years, the Madrid Region (Comunidad de Madrid) has experienced a huge increase in immigrants accessing the labour market. In this paper, a dynamic input‐output exercise is presented, yielding the direct and indirect effects of this migration inflow on the Madrid GDP. In addition, the induced demand effect is estimated, offering a complete estimate framework of the impact of migrant access on regional value added.