Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Four‐Month Attentional Regulation and Its Prediction of Three‐Year Compliance

The extent to which 4‐month attentional regulation during an infant‐mother still‐face situation and 12‐month attachment security during the Strange Situation predicted rates of compliance and noncompliance during a cleanup task at 36 months was examined longitudinally in 70 infant‐mother dyads. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that infants who showed more attentional regulation during the still‐face situation with mothers later showed a higher rate of committed compliance and a lower rate of situational compliance during cleanup with mothers. Furthermore, lower levels of attentional regulation were later associated with higher rates of assertive behavior, but only for infants in an insecure attachment relationship.     

The Effects of Spousal Health on the Decision to Smoke: Evidence on Consumption Externalities, Altruism and Learning Within the Household

Married individuals are healthier than single individuals though the reasons are not well understood. Individuals with spouses/or partners are less likely to smoke. We explore the relationship between health and marital status by analyzing three potential channels through which marriage affects smoking, i.e., consumption externalities (one spouse's smoking affects the other spouse's welfare), altruism (one spouse reduces smoking in response to the other spouse's bad health), and learning about risks of smoking from the health experience of one's spouse. We find spousal health does not affect smoking due to altruism or learning within the household but do find evidence for consumption externalities.     

Women with Turner's Syndrome: helping them reach their full potential

The physical and psychological effects of Turner's Syndrome, a female sex chromosome abnormality, briefly are described. Principles for helping women master the special challenges posed by the disorder are discussed. The authors argue that women with TS must take control of defining their identities and potential in order to attain full status within society.     

Strengthening communities through women's self help groups in South India

This article reports on an evaluation of women's Self Help Groups(SHGs) in an area in south India. Groups were evaluated, notin terms of their success as microcredit schemes, from a financialperspective, but in relation to their contribution to genderdevelopment. Evidence emerged that women perceived changes intheir identity towards working collectively to influence forchange at the village and panchyat levels. They engaged in communityand social action programmes, both at the local level and byjoining with issues beyond the local. When considered withinconstructs of empowerment, capability poverty, citizenship,and participation in democratic processes, such SHG outcomes,and the community development processes that accompany theirwork, can be seen to make a modest but significant contributionto broader transformations of oppressive structures.     

Child‐Care Usage and Mother‐Infant “Quality Time”

Mothers' time‐use patterns were compared in families in which infants spent more than 30 hours per week in child care (In‐Care group; n= 143) versus 0 hours per week (At‐Home group; n= 183) from birth to 6 months of age. In‐Care group mothers spent about 12 fewer hours per week interacting with their infants, for about 32% less time; fathers of these infants were more involved in caregiving. The groups did not differ in the quality of mother‐infant interaction. In the In‐Care group, quantity of interaction was related to greater separation anxiety and concerns about effects of maternal employment. Time‐use data were not related to child outcomes at 15 months of age. Results suggest that the effect of extensive time spent apart on the quantity and quality of mother‐infant interaction may be smaller than anticipated.     

Studying and Measuring Civility: A Framework, Trends and Scale

Four essential questions for the study of civility involve developing a definition of the term, determining its effects, establishing trends, and predicting the consequences of civility. A framework for studying it includes the actors, their gender, situations and settings, occupational role requirements, the cultural imperatives defining civility, and the processes through which it is learned. Objective measures of civility in the United States show its variability and change. Four items in the 1996 General Social Survey (GSS) are combined to form a scale of civility. Correlates of the scale show that civility does not differ by gender, color, or region. It is weakly associated with income but is significantly associated with education, occupation, and health. Age, education, and health provide a predictive model of civility. Anger, an emotional aspect of interpersonal exchange, reveals reactions characteristic of civil behavior: waiting for anger to pass before responding, trying to forget the incident, not thinking of revenge, not walking away from the situation, and not yelling or hitting. Hypotheses are proposed for further study that involves age, marital status, occupation, health, and emotional control.     

Understanding Unemployment Across California Counties

Unemployment rates differ widely and persistently across counties. This article examines equilibrium forces related to this geographic disparity with a focus on California. We show that although seasonal variation in employment can account for some of the differences, it cannot explain the total variation. Factors such as educational attainment, age, and gender appear to be strongly related to unemployment differences. Individuals living in higher‐unemployment areas also have a lower propensity to migrate. Because migration is usually considered to be the main equilibrating force, this evidence helps further explain why unemployment rates across counties are persistently different.     

The Psychological Adjustment of Transracial Adoptees: An Application of the Cultural–Racial Identity Model

In response to the need for increased understanding of the identity process of transracial adoptees, the Cultural–Racial Identity Model (A. L. Baden & R. J. Steward, 1995) was developed; however, the model has yet to be empirically validated. The model allows distinctions to be made between racial identity and cultural identity, resulting in 16 proposed identities. Identities are based on the degrees to which individuals (1) have knowledge of, awareness of, competence within, and comfort with their own racial group's culture, their parents' racial group's culture, and multiple cultures, and (2) are comfortable with their racial group membership and with those belonging to their own racial group, their parents' racial group, and multiple racial groups. Four dimensions of the model were determined for study: the Adoptee Culture Dimension, the Parental Culture Dimension, the Adoptee Race Dimension, and the Parental Race Dimension. In this study, the Cultural–Racial Identity of transracial adoptees was assessed by a modified version of the Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure (MEIM; J. S. Phinney, 1992). Psychological adjustment was assessed by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI; L. R. Derogatis & P. A. Cleary, 1977). The sample consisted of 51 transracial adoptees who completed mail survey questionnaires. The exploratory findings supported the Cultural–Racial Identity Model by demonstrating that the modified version of the MEIM successfully yielded variation in the potential Cultural–Racial Identities that the transracial adoptees reported. Findings also did not yield support for differences in psychological adjustment among transracial adoptees having different Cultural–Racial Identities. The implications that the results have for counseling practice and social policy were discussed.