The decline of fertility: Innovation or adjustment process

Abstract In Western society the process of fertility decline is often regarded as an innovation process. The assumptions behind this approach seem rather questionable, and the diffusion lags or gradients of limited importance. Both Swedish and other European data are used as illustrations. It is suggested that the decline be treated within the wider sociological perspective of a time-consuming adjustment or change process, not necessarily starting from a position of completely uncontrolled fertility within marriage. The situation in to-day's high fertility populations is briefly discussed against this background.     

Firm Size or Firm Age? The Effect on Wages Using Matched Employer–Employee Data

Abstract. This paper uses matched employer–employee data set for Sweden to study the relationship between firm age and wages, systematically addressing a variety of possible explanations for observing a firm age–wage effect. Results show considerable heterogeneity across years, along segments of the firm age distribution and across industries. For 1995, a positive relationship is found between firm age and wages. This relationship is robust to inclusion of variables that might affect results. Taking into account that larger firms are also older firms, results show that inclusion of firm age does not alter the positive effect of firm size on wages.     

Triads in Equine-Assisted Social Work Enhance Therapeutic Relationships with Self-Harming Adolescents

Despite an increasing number of studies, there is still a lack of knowledge about the unique features that underlie the process in equine assisted social work (EASW). This study aimed to reveal, through qualitative methods, the dyads within the triad that become stronger during the process of EASW, as well as the effect of the participation of the horse on the relationship between the counselor and client. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with nine female self-harming clients aged 15–21 years and eight staff members. The interviews, together with video-recorded human–horse interactions with three staff members and four clients were analyzed, resulting in additional issues answered by these three staff members and four clients in a second interview. Critical dialogues between patterns and fragmentations in the narratives and video-recordings, as well as a dialogue with the participants while they were viewing videos of their own EASW sessions, led to the conclusion that adding a horse qualitatively changes therapeutic relationships in EASW. The different triads consist of different liaisons between actors in the triad, giving rise to unique combinations. The quality of the relationships depends on both the staff and the clients’ attachment orientations. Further research is needed to investigate how the degree of emotional connection to the horse affects the impact that horses have on triads in EASW.     

Conflicts and contestations. Rural populations’ perspectives on the second homes phenomenon

In response to demands to restructure and diversify their economies, many rural communities have welcomed the expanding phenomenon of second homes. However, while the second home owners bring new resources to the host communities, the literature also suggests that large second home populations in rural communities provide fertile ground for a number of economic, social and cultural conflicts and contestations. The present paper analyses the views of the local rural populations on the second home phenomenon, with particular attention to variation in these views, both within and between the rural communities (municipalities). The analysis uses material from the survey City, countryside, second homes 2008, which was conducted among a large-scale and representative sample of the population in Norwegian rural second home municipalities. The first section of the paper addresses the rural populations’ stance towards the second home phenomenon, both in general and as it unfolds in their own vicinity. Results show generally positive views on second home development; however, the analysis identifies a substantial minority which is negative to the second home expansion. Nevertheless, the second section shows that even those rurals who are negative towards further developments of second homes largely report harmonious social relationships with the second home population that is already present. Third, the paper presents and discusses a multivariate logistic regression model to analyse how different segments of the rural population vary in their views on second home phenomena. Here, results suggest differences at both micro and macro levels: the local rural elites, in particular those with direct economic interests in the second home sector, are most positive towards further development. On the municipality level, resistance towards second homes is stronger in municipalities with a high density of second homes. Nevertheless, a high growth rate in the number of second homes, due to high investments, seems to increase local support.     

Unemployment Insurance and Entrepreneurship

Based on administrative registers from Norway, we examine how unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) affect the transition rates from unemployment to regular employment and entrepreneurship, as well as subsequent earnings levels. We find that both the employment and entrepreneurship hazards rise sharply in response to UI sanctions and UI exhaustion. On average, transitions to entrepreneurship are more profitable than transitions to regular employment. While employment transitions are highly pro‐cyclical, entrepreneurship transitions are weakly counter‐cyclical. ALMPs targeted at entrepreneurship are rare in Norway, but the few start‐up subsidies that are provided are successful in terms of generating paid work.     

Changes in active ageing in a Nordic regional context: Results based on the GERDA study in 2005 and 2016

The study examined changes in active ageing among 65/66- and 75/76-year-olds in northern Sweden and western Finland. Data were retrieved from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2005 and 2016. Logistic regression was used to estimate the probability of ageing actively in terms of employment, social and political participation, confidence in healthcare, economic situation, self-rated health and social contacts. The results showed no significant changes in employment, social participation or economic situation. However, the level of political participation and self-rated good health was significantly higher in 2016 compared with 2005, whereas confidence in healthcare and social contacts was lower. Considering that the implementation of active ageing policies relies heavily on municipal and/or regional level in our study region, our results could be used as a framework for regional policymaking.     

War-wounded refugees in Sweden

Sixty-one newly arrived war-wounded refugees were interviewed about their background and flight while treated at the Medical Center for Refugees, University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden. They came from 9 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Spinal cord injuries, nerve lesions, amputations and fractures were the most frequent injuries. The group was heavily burdened with regard to factors that might be of significance for wellbeing and integration in Swedish society: torture (51%), imprisonment (49%), loss of kin in war (62%), difficulties while growing up (54%), little or no schooling (48%), not having made the decision to flee oneself (46%) and having to leave the family behind (90%). This study is a first step in a longitudinal research project to shed light upon the situation of war-wounded refugees on arrival in Sweden and after 2 years.     

Examples of option values in drug development

The option to stop a project is fundamental in drug development. The majority of drugs do not reach the market. Furthermore, many marketed drugs do not repay their development costs. It is therefore crucial to optimize the value of the option to stop. We formulate two examples of statistical models. One is based on success/failure in a series of trials; the other assumes that the commercial value evolves as a stochastic process as more information becomes available. These models are used to study a number of issues: the number and timing of decision points; value of information; speed of development; and order of trials. The results quantify the value of options. They show that early information that can change key decisions is most valuable. That is, we should nip bad projects in the bud. Modelling is also useful to analyse more complex decisions, for example, weighting the value of decision points against the cost of information or the speed of development. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.