Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform

Options for reforming unfunded public pension schemes that are now being discussed all share the feature that the burden induced by demographic change would be shifted towards presently living and away from unborn generations. Existing models of the political economy of pension reform can not explain why such reform options are being discussed at all. We present an alternative model in which the possibility of evasion of workers from payment of social security taxes is taken into account by modelling a labor supply function. It turns out that the burden of demographic change may fall completely or at least predominantly on the pensioners. Thus this type of model can much better explain recent trends in legislature on unfunded public pension systems in industrial democracies. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999     

A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Relationship Transitions and the Risk for Child Maltreatment

Family structure as a risk for child maltreatment has long been viewed as a static state in the child maltreatment literature. Drawing on data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, the author uses a series of individual fixed-effects models to investigate whether particular types of relationship transitions over children’s first decade of life are associated with increased risk for maternal and paternal child abuse and maternal neglect. Findings question and confirm a number of long-standing theoretical and empirical findings from the child maltreatment literature. Results indicate that transitions to being single are associated with increased risk for maternal child abuse and neglect. In addition, the frequency and severity of paternal harsh parenting may be closely linked with the nature of fathers’ relationship transitions. Last, results largely do not provide support for the theory that the presence of social (nonbiological) fathers increases mothers’ risk for engaging in child abuse or neglect.     

Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010

We interpret the emergence of Jihadist terrorism in the light of contest theory. Al Qaeda may be portrayed as a contest organizer, providing a ‘prize’ to the best terrorist group. Each group maximizes its probability of winning by launching attacks more destructive than previous ones perpetrated by competing groups. This hypothesis is confirmed by the empirical analysis which shows that the number of victims of terrorist attacks increases compared to number of victims of previous attacks in the same country. An upward trend in terrorist brutality is the outcome of competition between groups. Results also show that Al Qaeda-style terrorism is associated with poverty and underprivileged socio-economic conditions.     

The effects of the Great Recession on American families

The Great Recession was marked by historic rates of unemployment and foreclosure and caused substantial household economic hardship and widespread economic uncertainty. I review recent social scientific research on the effects of the Great Recession on American families. I first generate a set of expectations for how the Great Recession would have affected (a) marriage and cohabitation, (b) fertility, and (c) relationship quality and divorce based on existing sociological and demographic theory and research. I then discuss the key methods that scholars have used to gauge the effects of the Great Recession in these outcome areas. My review of research to date indicates that the recession had modest effects on marriage and cohabitation, but significant negative effects on fertility. Notably, these fertility effects are evident among unmarried and low socio‐economic‐status (SES) women whom prior research has suggested decouple fertility from economic concerns. Finally, there is modest evidence that the Great Recession reduced relationship quality, but it appears that the costs of divorce restrained any increase in dissolution.     

An Experiment in Overseas Field Instruction

This paper reports on a study that examined the knowledge needed for practice in community mental health and the primary source for this knowledge. Differences were found in knowledge areas needed for practice in community mental health settings when contrasted with practice in more traditional mental health agencies. The most frequently indicated source of knowledge for social work roles in community mental health was on-the-job experience. Courses in social work schools were not a primary source of knowledge for the many nonclinical roles undertaken by social workers in community mental health.     

解释学纲要

施莱尔马赫的解释学思想主要体现在他身后出版的《解释学与校勘学》中,此书的总序和导论以纲要的方式表达了他在这个领域中的基本观点。他明确地界定了解释学与校勘学,区分了普遍解释学和特殊解释学、语法解释和心理解释、解释学的严格的实践和不严格的实践,突出了语言在解释学中的核心地位,对解释学循环作了明确的表述,并提出了浪漫主义解释学的著名口号——我们能像作者理解的一样并能做到比作者理解他自己理解得更好——等重要的思想。     

Stress From Daily Hassles in Couples: Its Effects on Intradyadic Stress,Relationship Satisfaction,and Physical and Psychological Well‐Being

According to the systemic‐transactional stress model (STM; G. Bodenmann, European Review of Applied Psychology, 1997; 47: 137), extradyadic stress from daily hassles can have a negative impact on the individual psychological and physical health and the couple's relationship. This study is the first one to test the STM propositions in a model that includes both partners’ individual and relational outcomes simultaneously. The model also includes actor and partner effects as well as the interdependence between partners’ processes. Cross‐sectional, self‐report data were collected from 110 community couples in Switzerland. Consistent with STM predictions, results from the path model analysis indicate that for actor effects extradyadic stress from daily hassles relates directly to lower psychological (increase in anxiety symptoms) and physical well‐being and only indirectly to lower relationship satisfaction through increased intradyadic stress from relationship problems and also through more depressive symptomatology in men. The female extradyadic stress and intradyadic stress had partner effects on the male intradyadic stress and the male relationship satisfaction, respectively. Limitations as well as research and clinical implications for marriage and family therapists are discussed.