Will population slowdowns yield resource conservation? Some social demurrers

Recent movements and social programs for American population limitation are premised on the expectation that reduced fertility will lower consumption, and hence conserve resources. This premise suffers from the fallacy ofceteris paribus: that, at the familial level, fertility reductions occur with no other familial change. In fact, recent history suggests that reduced childrearing has permitted greater income attainment and consumption by families foregoing childbearing. Moreover, even if families attempted to maintain lower consumption, the aggregate impacts on the economy would be defined as depressive, and lead to macrostructural counteractive strategies by the private and public sectors. This points to the automaticmutatis mutandis fallacy of the populationist movement: the notion that fertility reduction alone will cause economic and environment changes. Resource conservation efforts must deal with both these facts and social scientists have an obligation to present this realistic picture rather than accepting the assumptions of Zero Population Growth.     

Out-migration and ethnic communities

"Comparative analysis of out-migration [in the United States]...reveals substantial ethnic differentials. Part of the variation results from group compositional differences in social class and other characteristics normally related to migration, particularly age, education and local birth. Equally important, however, are indicators of social and economic bonds." The data concern 3,345 adults who were first interviewed between 1967 and 1969 in Rhode Island and were reinterviewed in 1970, 1971, and 1979. "The results suggest that ethnic groups characterized by a dense network of social and economic ties do not sponsor out-migration, which has been the emphasis of many past studies of chain migration and migrant assimilation. Rather, they deter out-migration by providing alternative opportunities within the ethnic community."     

The aims of population statistics and demographic research

A detailed program for the improvement of population statistics and for the development of demographic research is presented, with particular reference to the USSR. Topics covered include global and regional population projections, special surveys on demographic behavior, and the need for improvements in migration data.     

The dynamics and differentials of fertility in the USSR (survey results)

The results of a fertility survey carried out in the USSR in 1978 are presented. The survey included 33,076 women aged 18 to 59. Data are included on fertility rates by region and Union Republic and by urban or rural area, and on expected fertility of women aged 18 to 44. Changes in actual and desired fertility over time are compared for five-year periods from 1945 to 1978. Differences in fertility are analyzed by type of settlement, educational status, and nationality.