The economic explanation of fertility changes in the United States

Abstract It is widely assumed that fertility varies positively with economic conditions. Actually this assumption receives little support from the historical record. For a century before 1930 fertility declined while the economy expanded and real incomes rose. Then for nearly three decades fertility and incomes fell and rose together. Since 1960 they have again moved in opposite directions. Clearly, no simple generalization about their relation will hold water. More sophisticated explanations are based on relative rather than absolute incomes. Banks suggested that the downturn in English fertility in the 1870's might have occurred because standards of middle-class consumption rose faster than middle-class incomes, but he found the evidence inconclusive. To reconcile the post-war baby boom in the United States with earlier experience, Easterlin has argued that fertility is determined by the relationship between the income of couples in their twenties and the income of their parents ten to fifteen years earlier. Among the weaknesses of this theory as applied to U.S. experience are its failure to explain the sharp drop in fertility, including that of native white urban women, in the 1920's; the fact that fertility rose most in the baby boom at the higher socio-economic levels where incomes rose least; and the sharp decline of fertility after 1962 in spite of the favourable trend of incomes, including those of younger people. The broad conclusion is that while couples no doubt do consider income, employment opportunities, etc. in deciding how many children to have, such considerations have had a relatively minor influence on changes in fertility, which for the most part have been the result of changes in attitudes. Even the post-war baby boom was a result not only of higher incomes and full employment but also of a shift in attitudes toward family size, particularly among the better-educated, economically better-off sections of society.     

《主要资本主义国家经济中国家垄断调节的新趋势》读后

过去的10年是以资本主义发展过程中矛盾的急剧恶化为其标志的,这个矛盾表明现存国家垄断调节制度的深刻危机。事实证明,只要资本主义不得不同时对付由资本主义世界各国日益不平衡发展所造成的通货膨胀、失业和周期性衰退、结构性危机、全球性问题以及各种困难,调整经济的旧的形式和方法就将不起作用。这种状况,促进了有关国家垄断调节的新手段和新方法以及改变其机制方面的探讨。     

哲学领域的思想斗争

尽管物质生产发展取得巨大成就,科学和技术创造了奇迹,对亿万人们施加思想和心理影响的渠道极广,资产阶级仍不能提出使人民群众心向神往的思想.资产阶级思想家承认其思想的虚弱和失败,因为它们不能回答现时代的问题,这就证明了资产阶级社会包藏着深刻的精神危机,而且也无法隐瞒和回避资产阶级精神文化的解体过程.法国社会学家P.阿隆在《对进步的失望》一书中,承认现代资产阶级社会及其思想和理想、整个社会生活和文化都存在着危机,论述现代资本主义类型的工业社会的退化和冲突,及其"悲惨辩证法".     

苏联科学院非洲研究所南非问题研究

在苏联,研究南非问题的主要中心是苏联科学院非洲研究所。对这些问题直接进行研究的是南部非洲国家研究室。该室成员共有12人,由我来领导。我们室的研究人员无论是对在整个地区,还是对在这一地区所包括的各个国家所发生的事件和过程,都进行系统的观察,这些国家是南非共和国、纳米比亚、津巴布韦、莱索托、博茨瓦纳、斯威士兰。一般来说,研究成果表现在有重大价值的文章和著作中,在这些文章和著作中反映了南非当前形势的各个方面。我们的著作用俄文出版,主要是向广大苏联公众,包括人文专业的科学工作者和大学生介绍南非各国的问题。我们用外文出版这些著作,感到有很大的困难。我们整个研究所和我     

社会人文科学的某些方法论特点

社会人文科学,在广义上是反映社会生活及其规律性、人们的活动、物质文化和精神文化的科学研究领域。社会人文科学在许多方面不同于自然科学。社会人文科学知识的重要特点在于主体对所研究客体的参予性。马克思曾指出,对社会过程的认识“应当时刻把握住:无论在现实中或在头脑中,主体……都是既定的。”因此在社会科学面前,除必须研究客观过程及其规律之外,还有一项自身特有的解释人的主观世界、社     

真理是科学研究的理想

现时代国际舞台上社会阶级力量的对抗空前激烈,全球性矛盾日益尖锐,科学技术革命不断深入.科学的价值定向问题,科学与社会理想的紧密联系问题,都一一暴露出来,因此,把真理看作认识活动所要达到的理想并进行深入分析,无论在认识论方面还是在社会方面,都具有重要的意义.寻求真理是一种创造真理体现了绝对要素和相对要素的统一.这种统一不可能是既定的和一成不变的.它表现为由不知到知的过渡形式,由不够充分不够透彻的知识向更加多面和更加深刻的知识过渡的形式.既然人不能一下子得到全部真理,     

关于新中间阶级的性质

五十年代以来,西方的经济结构发生了明显变化,其中以“第三产业”的大规模发展尤为突出。由此产生的重要后果之一是,西方发达资本主义世界的劳动力结构发生了相应的变化:生产领域内劳动力人数的比例相对下降,非生产部门的劳动力队伍迅速扩大、甚至成倍增加。这些人不仅无生产资料,而且也要靠出卖劳动力谋生,但是他们和体力劳动者相比,却有较高的收入,在工作中也有一定的“自主权”和“独立性”。如何确定这些雇佣劳动者的阶级地位?这一直是西方学术界激烈争论的问题之一。这篇文章代表一种较有普遍性的观点,它为我们了解西方学者的阶级结构理论提供了一个方面的线索。     

经济人类学的展望

六十年代初期以来,对经济人类学理论来说,发生了几件重要的事。第一是引用马克思主义理论的人类学家人数增加。目前,在英国发表经济人类学论文的马克思主义杂志至少有四种:《辩证法的人类学》、《经济与社会》、《人类     

Some Notes On Fertility Problems In A Colombian Semi-Urban Community

Significant efforts in the field of study and control of reproductive habits of the Colombian population have been made in the last few years by local medical groups. This article attempts to illustrate how the data obtained in this program can be meaningfully exploited from the demographic point of view. Although data available at the time of writing did not comply with the principles of scientific sampling procedures, it is thought that such studies can throw some light on particular issues, such as the patterns of mating, the effect of contraception on birth spacing among married couples, and the relation of fecundity to frequency of coitus. This article deals with some methodological issues which center around these problems.