A TIME-SERIES APPROACH FOR CONSTRUCTING EXPECTATIONS MODELS*

This article presents an efficient way of dealing with adaptive expectations models—a way that makes use of all the information available in the data. The procedure is based on multiple-input transfer functions (MITFs): by calculating lead and lag cross correlations between innovations associated with the variables in the model, it is possible to determine which periods have the greatest effects on the dependent variable. If information about k periods ahead is required, fitted values for the expectation variables are used to generate k-period-ahead forecasts. These in turn can be used in the estimation of the transfer function equation, which not only contains the usual lagged variables but also allows for incorporation of lead-fitted values for the expectation variables. The MITF identification and estimation procedures used are based on the corner method. The method is contrasted with the Almon distributed-lag approach using a model relating stock market prices to interest rates and expected corporate profits.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

From Foster Care to Adoption and Guardianship: A Twenty-First Century Challenge

For nearly four decades, child welfare policy and practice have focused on the achievement of legal permanence for children in foster care. Although federal child welfare policy has resulted in the movement of children from state custody to legally permanent adoptive or guardianship families, little is known about the quality and enduring nature of these placements. A significant challenge of the twenty-first century child welfare system is how to ensure the well-being of children currently living with adoptive parents or guardians. This paper discusses child welfare policy and trends related to post-permanency well-being, including the decrease in Title IV-E foster care caseloads nationwide and the simultaneous increase in Title IV-E adoptive and guardianship caseloads. We highlight the needs of a twenty-first century child welfare system, including increased federal efforts to ensure child permanence and well-being after legal adoption or guardianship has been achieved, as well as more rigorous longitudinal and interdisciplinary research focused on the post-permanency adjustment of children and their families.     

Clinical Social Work and Psychoanalysis: Introduction to the Special Issue

As clinical social work developed in America it was highly influenced by the concepts and techniques of psychoanalysis and many of its practitioners became interested in seeking psychoanalytic training. More and more psychoanalysts are now coming from a background in clinical social work due to the development of a network of interdisciplinary training institutes and the opening of the Institutes of the American Psychoanalytic Association to non-medical candidates. This special issue considers how psychoanalysis may be affected as more of its practitioners and contributors come from a background in clinical social work. This introduction reviews the history of the development of clinical social work and outlines the issues related to “lay analysis” in this country.