Application of commercial software to the classification of suicide cases: a brief report

Mosaic Profiler software was used to classify suicide and open verdict cases during 1996 to 1998 in England and within England, for the London and the North West regions. The classification system was based on the socioeconomic characteristics of the last place of residence of the cases at the level of postcode. The results highlighted that deprived areas and areas that contain elderly population or those areas that suffer from lack of social cohesion are overrepresented, whereas affluent areas are underrepresented. All of these, although in the larger scale, seem to support the results of other studies. Nevertheless, more studies would be required before one can fully evaluate the application of the Mosaic Profiler in the field of spatial epidemiology.     

The impact of taxation on the distribution of wealth in an economy with changing population

The paper investigates into the determinants of the personal distribution of income and wealth. In an overlapping generations model all individuals are assumed to be identical except for their inherited wealth. Since life time is random the bequest of an individual and thus the inherited stock of capital of its children are stochastic variables. Taxation and social security contributions affect life cycle savings, bequests, and, eventually, the distribution of income and wealth in the society. It is shown that, in general, higher tax rates reduce distributive inequality as long as the rate of interest is exogenously given. In steady state, however, where the rate of interest is determined endogenously, increasing taxation and higher social security payments both diminish the capital labor ratio so that the rate of interest rises. If this interest effect is strong enough then it may outbalance the tendency toward more equality because higher interest rates enhance initial differences in the distribution of both income and wealth and, eventually, the inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in the society.     

An outline of study on China's population / environment issues

Attention is given to population and growth and the impact on the environment and resources in China. Policies for managing the environment and instituting population education are also addressed. The first position paper of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPAC) on June 2, 1990 is summarized. The population of China was 1.11 billion in 1989. The rate of growth in 1988 was 14.2/1000 in 1988. 91% live in the southeast on 43% of the land. Land area is 9.6 million square miles. 65% can be made arable, and 14% is cultivated. China has 7% of the world's arable land and 20% of the world's population. Population growth has reduced arable land/captia. The impact on forests has been deforestation. 13% of land is currently forested, and timber reserves encompass 9.14 billion cubic meters, or 9 cubic meters/person. The demand for firewood and timber will increase. The impact on grasslands has been overgrazing and desertification at a current rate of 1560 square kilometer/year. The impact on energy resources is a greater demand for coal which will increase and thus increase pollution of the environment. The impact on water resources is greater demand and increased pollution. Water resources are 2700 cubic meters/person or less than the world average. 26.8 billion tons of waste water were industrially discharged out of 36.8 billion tons. 436 of the 532 rivers are polluted. The impact on the environment is a decreased standard of living. NEPAC reported that air pollution was slightly reduced in 4% of the cities in 1988, increased in 4%, and stable in the remaining cities. Water quality improved through the lowering of industrial waste water discharges, but 72% of river segments are still above the standards. Each major river system is discussed. Noise increased, and industrial solid wastes increased. Forest reserve is 9.141 billion cubic meters; the man-made forest has increased. The loss of grasslands is .13 million hectares/year. Cultivated land is 95.72 million hectares, but 100,000 hectares/year are damaged by natural disasters and 6 million are polluted by industrial wastes. 606 nature preserves have been established. In 1989, a complete legal system of environmental protection was established and investment increased.     

Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.     

世代政治学

由于分析的目的不同,世代政治学可以从三种不同的角度来研究:1.世代承袭或家系政治;2.同伴政治;3.政治代。家系政治研究的方法涉及到亲属意识中的世代关系等内容,在政治社会化的有关文献中已有体现。这些文献考察了后代是如何从他们的父母那里习得政治态度的。然而,同伴政治以及政治代的研究则把着重点放在那些影响人们形成政治态度和行为的社会历史条件和环境上。在有关年龄增长和政治相关     

公共行政定性研究的理论化:严谨性与丰富性相结合的多元化

学者们都强调定性研究需要更加严谨,这无意中支持了公式化和标准化方法的运用,不利于从丰富的数据中创建理论。为了深化上述讨论,本研究强调严谨性与丰富性相结合,有利于有效理论化的公共行政定性研究的重要性。基于对发表在六种公共行政权威期刊上的31篇定性研究的文献回顾,本研究证明有效的理论化与研究设计、分析方法和理论贡献的清晰度有关。通过对四类研究的深入剖析发现,"归纳理论化"和"溯因理论化"这两个过程证实了在数据的严谨性和丰富性的平衡之间存在着多元化。我们由此推导出一套原则,使研究人员能够在数据、分析和理论贡献之间实现令人信服的"概念性飞跃"。我们还强调,有必要通过比较定性研究报告与多样性检验基本要素之间的细微差别,以整合有关理论创建的多元化方法。     

新保守主义与80年代世界经济

新保守主义是近15年来资本主义适应当代世界的新环境的深刻过程中出现和确立的。就资产阶级的宏观经济理论而言,这个过程表现为重点放在资本主义国家对经济的干与上的凯恩斯主义学派与鼓吹自由市场与竞争的“长处”的贷币主义的新自由派之间在70和80年代越来越明显地分道扬镳。今天在经济理论领域里唱着保守派调子的新自由派和货币主义者,主张利用货币和信贷杠杆,作为“医治”凯恩斯主义方法所不能消除的资本主义的痼疾——失业、通货膨胀、危机,加强财政资本、跨国垄断资本在本国和世界经济中地位的手段。     

A comparison of different survey techniques for obtaining vital data in A developing country

This article presents estimates of the sources and the extent of observation errors in different questionnaires and methods used to collect birth and death data in the 1961-63 multi-purpose sample survey of Morocco.The questionnaires used in the analysis of the three survey rounds were a list of household members (Rounds1 and 2) and a roll-call (Round3); retrospective death (Rounds1, 2, and 3) and birth (Round 3) queries; a date-of-birth tabulation (Round 2); and a household check-sheet to explain differences between Rounds 1 and 2. All available questionnaires for a given household were brought together and collated to provide several sources of information on births and deaths and a basis for assessing errors.From this analysis, the survey attempted to define the nature and to estimate the frequency of the errors which would have occurred if more restricted types of survey design had been used. Results, based on the period between Rounds 1 and 2, led to three major conclusions.First, if vital data had been collected with a single-round retrospective procedure, gross error (over enumeration plus underenumeration) would have been 17 percent for births and 36 percent for deaths. There is a net error of overenumeration of 3 percent for births (1.4 per1,000population) and 9 percent for deaths (2.3 per1,000population).Second, if two rounds were available to permit a combination of household composition follow-up and a retrospective mortality questionnaire, overenumeration would be almost entirely eliminated and underenumeration would be noticeably reduced. Third, most of the remaining errors of underestimation may be attributed to (1) an estimated number of infants born and deceased between two rounds and missed by all questionnaires, (2) matching failures caused by the absence of adults at Round 1, and (3) matching errors.     

评《劳动道德和联合劳动》

尼什“格拉丁那”出版社出版的《劳动道德和联合劳动》一书,是由南斯拉夫著名的劳动社会学家D.Z.马尔科维奇撰写的。作者在研究当代社会的道德现象、特别是研究当今世界中的人的问题时所作出的贡献,在南斯拉夫学术界获得了很高的评价。作者的主要前提是,由于生产力发展水平的不同,不同国家内部的道德规范和职责也各不相同。也就是说,知识、生产技能和生产资料决定着社会阶级结构,并使人置身于一定的地位。尽管在劳动关系方面存在着许多分歧,     

撒哈拉的图阿雷格人

图阿雷格人生活在从利比亚到毛里塔尼亚整个撒哈拉中心带的广阔沙漠中,属于柏柏尔族。他们的起源富于奇异色彩,流传于撒哈拉人的口头传说中。这在阿尔及利亚的那加尔塔西里山出土的特殊石雕和古典文献里都提供了宝贵的印证。现代学者认为图阿雷格人与埃劳多多的加拉满底人是同一族源。