The guests who stayed--the debate on 'foreigners policy' in the German Federal Republic

The recruitment of "guest workers" between 1956 and 1973 by West German employers has given rise to new ethnic minorities. The Federal Republic of Germany (GFR) claims that it is not a country of immigration--a controversy that reflects the basic dilemma over policies towards foreign residents, who now comprise about 7% of the total population. The shift from temporary labor migration to long-term settlement has been accompanied by structural changes in the foreign resident population. The logic of the migratory process is inescapable: virtually all migrations, whether organized or spontaneous, start with movements of young adult workers. When recruitment stated in the late 1950s state migration policies were concerned only with short-term fulfillment of capital's labor requirements. The state established a system of institutionalized discrimination, through which temporary guest workers could be recruited, controlled, and sent away, as the interests of capital dictated. This policy was impracticable because many firms found that rotation led to problems of labor fluctuation and high training costs. The trend toward restrictive policies on migration continued in the early 1980s; rising unemployment and urban problems led to widespread hostility towards foreigners. 3 key issues need resolving quickly: 1) the granting of security of residence status, so that migrant families have a clear basis for planning their own future, 2) the extending of political rights to foreign residents, and 3) the issue of citizenship. Like other West European countries, the GFR has become a multiethnic society through the postwar labor migrations. The early reform of legal structures to give migrants more rights is a precondition for social peace, and for achieving the benefits which multiculturalism can offer to all members of society.     

Cuba's exiles: portrait of a refugee migration

"This article provides a portrait of Cuba's exiles [in the United States] that encompasses all their waves of migration, while utilizing the Cuban exodus to shed light on the broader phenomenon of refugee migration. It argues that to understand the changing social characteristics of the exiles over twenty years of migration, we need to understand the changing phases of the Cuban revolution. Utilizing the Cuban exodus as data, the article uses Egon F. Kunz's...theoretical framework for refugee migration to shed light on the refugees' varying experiences, while also using the actual Cuban refugee experience to react to Kunz's abstract model."     

A note on the migration of Jews from Dublin

The emigration of Jews from Dublin, Ireland, between 1930 and 1980 is analyzed. Data are from a survey carried out in 1980 among 130 randomly selected Jewish households in Dublin.     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

Caribbean immigrants: a black success story?

"This article examines the 1980 earnings and earnings attainment process of Afro-Caribbean immigrants [to the United States] relative to Afro-Americans, native-born whites and foreign-born whites. Controlling for gender, the comparisons consider Caribbean Islanders as a whole and disaggregated by nation of origin. The results indicate that, in 1980 at least, fact did not justify the opinion that any West Indian subgroup had higher gross or net earnings than native-born blacks. Rather, a few non-English speaking subgroups fared worse. In addition, regardless of national background, Caribbean-born men experienced vast earnings disparities relative to white men. This was not the case for West Indian women, whose net earnings were, at minimum, equivalent to those of white women. Further analysis suggests that, for most Caribbean groups, West Indian background adds little to an understanding of the earnings attainment process that cannot be obtained from other measurable characteristics."     

Long term demographic effect of a constant stream of immigration when the population is not reproducing itself

The author describes the use of a model to investigate "the age composition of the stationary population resulting from a condition of below replacement fertility and a continuous stream of immigrants, the size of which for any age remain invariant over time.... We have shown that the number dying among [migrants] is the same as the number of them entering over any time interval, and that is precisely how their stationarity is maintained." The geographical focus is on developed countries that are experiencing below-replacement fertility levels. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

The medical examiner and deaths in the hospital setting

There has been a perceived increase in the number of medical negligence claims in recent years. The modern metropolitan medical examiner is increasingly called upon to deal with numerous medical, legal, social, and ethical issues. Nowhere is the role of the medical examiner more important than in the investigation of deaths related to surgical, diagnostic, anesthetic, or therapeutic procedures. Medical examiners have an important role in the investigative process. Through utilization of the offices and services of the medical examiner, questions raised by families, physicians, and other hospital employees may be satisfactorily answered a priori, and litigation may therefore be averted.