你值多少钱

一个原因能够完全终止你的伟大想法:缺钱.真的吗?用钱赚钱,对吗?95%的新兴企业破产的最大原因就是资金不足.同意吗?     

逆境求存的秘诀

如果你的企业处于相当的市场优势地位,而且,你的企业管理水准也是业内最高标杆。这听起来的确很不错——不过,逆水行舟,今年明年你可以这样,如果后年仍然如此,你的企业则会很危险了。     

美国会计

美国的会计和报告准则像世界其他国家一样,是以其所处环境为基础的。理解这些影响对财务报表的分析与解释是十分有利的。尽管美国的财务报表倾向于通用化,然而它们受到私人投资者信息需求的很大影响。这些私人投资者在高度的     

Labour migration as a response to relative deprivation

In this paper we define the relative deprivation of a person with income y as an increasing function of the percentage of individuals in the person's reference group whose income is larger than y. We obtain his satisfaction by adding up the marginal utilities of income over the range of income a person possesses. We model migration from one reference group to another as a response to relative deprivation and satisfaction: We say that a strong incentive to migrate exists if relative deprivation decreases while satisfaction rises with migration and that a weak incentive exists if the individual increases or decreases his satisfaction and deprivation at the same time by migrating. We derive conditions under which different incentives, weak or strong, hold for different individuals. We obtain the result that in general the richest individual in a society will not have a strong incentive to migrate but may have a weak incentive to migrate, whereas the poorest individual may have a strong incentive to migrate and also a weak incentive to migrate. Our analysis enables us to explain several perplexing migratory phenomena, identify income inequality as a distinct explanatory variable of migration and establish an incentive to migrate in situations where the utility-social welfare approach does not.This is a revised version of Harvard University Migration and Development Program, Discussion Paper No. 20. We are indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

A diagnostic study of Department of Health training courses for family planning providers

A study in the Philippines sought to observe and describe the family planning (FP) training program in two regions. This program trains physicians, nurses, and midwives as a team and includes a Basic/Comprehensive (B/C) course in FP with didactic and practicum elements, training in interpersonal communication skills (ICS) for those who have completed with B/C course, and a Preceptors Course for those who will supervise the practicum phase of the B/C course. The study gathered specific information on 1) trainee absenteeism and drop-out rates, 2) course content and effects, 3) the trainee selection process, 4) the practicum requirement for the B/C course, and 5) service delivery values and quality of care. Data were collected through observations, questionnaires, exit interviews with clients during the practicum phase, interviews with supervisors and public officials (mayors), and focus group discussions with regional trainers. This assessment led to the following recommendations: 1) maintain the current team approach; 2) reserve basic orientation-type subjects for office-based training to allow more time for FP topics in the training programs; 3) use caution in making a switch to "competency-based" training because of the possibility that supervision is inadequate for such a training method; 4) improve scheduling; 5) enforce the prerequisites for participation in the ICS and Preceptors Courses; 6) assign only one trainee to a preceptor area during the practicum and reduce the quota of IUD insertions to reduce pressure to obtain IUD acceptors; 7) create a "model" FP clinic each time a preceptor is trained; 8) pay more attention to natural FP methods; and 9) maintain an emphasis on quality of care.     

Age patterns of mortality for older women: an analysis using the age-specific rate of mortality change with age

"In this paper we propose a mortality measure that seems useful in analyzing age patterns of death rates. The measure, which will be denoted by k(x), indicates the proportional increase or decrease with age in the risk of death at a given age x, and is called the age-specific rate of mortality change with age." Estimations are presented for women in 10 countries. "Eight of the selected sets of data are for developed nations in the 1960s and 1970s, and the other two sets of data, for Taiwan, 1931-35, and for Germany, 1910-11, represent relatively high mortality. For France and West Germany, three different periods are included for an investigation of cohort effects on the observed age patterns." Other mathematical models of age-specific mortality rates are discussed and compared. (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Untilting age distributions: a transformation for graphical analysis

"This article presents a new approach to the plotting of age distribution data. 'Untilting' is a way of transforming data that vary systematically from very high to very low values so as to show local variation more clearly. The article derives an untilting transformation from the formal structure of age distributions. The transformation turns out to be closely related to two familiar demographic techniques, reverse-survival estimation of births and birth rates, and comparison of observed with stable age distributions. The ideas are illustrated by application to age distributions from the 1979 and 1989 censuses of Vietnam."     

Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality

This paper presents and discusses new model life tables at very low mortality, which make use of age-specific death rates from the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. These life tables fit recorded death rates in very low mortality populations better than do the existing ones at expectations of life of 77.5 and 80 years. The old tables incorporate too-high mortality at the higher ages and in infancy and they incorporate regional differences that no longer exist. The new tables "close out" the mortality schedules above age 80 more realistically. The convergence of age patterns of mortality at very high life expectancies in populations that used to conform to different families is in itself of demographic interest. Some convergence may perhaps be expected. Sullivan (1973) found that, in Taiwan, the comparison of mortality at ages 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in the late 1950s showed higher mortality at the younger ages relative to the ensuing 30-year age interval than was found in any of the models, including the South model, which has the highest relative mortality from ages 1-5 among the 4 regional patterns. Then, in the late 1960s, the relation of mortality at 1-5 to mortality at 5-35 in Taiwan fell to a position intermediate between the West and South tables. Sullivan found in data on mortality by cause of death a large reduction in mortality from diarrhea and enteritis, no doubt as a result of environmental sanitation. Mortality from these causes is concentrated among young children, and reduction in deaths from these causes would naturally diminish the excess mortality in this age interval. The East pattern, characterized by very high mortality in infancy (but not from 1-5), may be the result of the prevalence of early weaning or avoidance of breast feeding altogether in the populations characterized by this pattern. As health conditions have improved, evidenced by the overall design of mortality, these special factors are diminished or erased. Model life tables at these very low mortality levels have different uses from most applications of model life tables at higher mortality. The use of model tables to estimate accurate schedules of mortality when the basic data are incomplete or inaccurate is less relevant in this range of mortality levels.     

非洲以社区为基础的计划生育活动

非洲拥有世界上最高的人口增长率,生育率和产妇及婴儿死亡率。这种状况严重限制了非洲各国的社会经济发展。在过去几年里,非洲各国政府开始更加关注人口的高速增长,以及由此引起的社会经济发展问题,妇女、儿童健康问题。计划生育已被确认为维护保健方面的低成本高收益的     

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos

We consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, we obtain numerical results on the qualitative behaviour of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies — assumed to be characterised by low and high savings rate respectively — are characterised by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.This work was supported by a grant from the Austrian Academy of Sciences. G. Feichtinger acknowledges financial support from the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P 9608-SOZ. The helpful comments of C. H. Hommes, G. Lee and of an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.