Self-fulfilling Prophecies, Self-defeating Strategies and Change

Summary This paper sets out to describe and define ‘self-fulfillingprophecies’ and ‘self-defeating strategies’and discuss their relevance to understanding families. The conceptsare presented as a model for making sense of, and simplifying,the complex repeating sequences of behaviour seen in families.It is a model which has a behavioural and a cognitive componentand this may form a bridge between theories which concentrateon the ‘here and now’ and those which emphasizethe significance of history. Examples of the model are givenwith an analysis of the process of interaction. Certain featuresof self-defeating strategies are discussed, specifically howattempts to avoid a particular outcome can, in fact, precipitateit and how obsolete expectations can inhibit families from changing.Finally, some of the underlying assumptions of the model areexamined.     

THE COMPOSITION AND CONSTRUCTION OF MONETARY AGGREGATES

An economic monetary aggregate is composed from a set of monetary goods that are at least weakly separable from other goods in the optimizing agent's utility function. We construct such an aggregate using a Divisia index number. We demonstrate that through the middle of the 1980s forecasts of the inflation rate based on our economic monetary aggregate are superior to forecasts based on the simple sum monetary aggregates M1 or M2.     

SPECIALIZATION, LEARNING BY DOING AND THE OPTIMAL AMOUNT OF LEARNING

Specialization, learning and technological change are shown in this paper to be connected phenomena. These connections which cannot be discovered by looking into conventional production functions are revealed in a straightforward way by applying the theory of finite automata. An hypothesis about learning is advanced and learning curves are derived from a model of behavior. How to determine the optimal amount of learning is also discussed.     

INFLATION AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS

There is a pronounced positive correlation of inflation and government deficits in the United States since World War II. The purpose of this paper is to test the three leading explanations of this correlation. These three explanations are: (a) a deficit increases prices through a wealth effect; (b) a deficit results in the Federal Reserve purchasing debt, thus increasing the money supply and prices; and (c) expected inflation increases the deficit (which is the change in the nominal value of bonds). No support is found for either of the first two hypotheses. The results indicate that expected government deficits have no significance for future inflation.     

NOMINAL COSTS AND THE DEMAND FOR REAL TRANSACTIONS BALANCES

The standard specification of constant real transactions costs assumes that over the sample period transactions costs move in lock-step with the GNP deflator; our model assumes that transactions costs move negligibly compared to the GNP deflator. That is, nominal transactions costs are assumed constant here rather than real transactions costs as in other estimates of money demand. We find with this nominal-transactions-cost specification that the real money demand function is more stable in terms of the stability of the coefficients and the accuracy of out of sample predictions than indicated by earlier studies.     

Can We Afford not to Develop Social Work Practice?

Summary This paper outlines the main arguments for resources to be directedtowards developing practice methodology and skills. A reviewof recent research literature indicates that there are a groupof cases which take up much social work time and resources butthat this work lacks professional expertise and effectiveness.Outcome research in related fields is also reviewed. A synthesisof these studies' conclusions suggests that social workers couldbe effective though the essential skills are rare. The implicationsof these findings for the focus and nature of social work trainingare discussed.     

RETURNS TO INVESTORS IN STOCKS IN NEW INDUSTRIES

We examine investors' returns from publicly traded stock in new industries associated with major changes in transportation and communication in the United States. Return distributions during the development of own‐brand personal computers, airlines, airplane and automobile manufacturers, railroads, and telegraphs reveal three general characteristics. A few companies generate outstanding returns, many firms fail, and returns are volatile. Firms' expected returns are higher than market returns for three of the five industries. Sharpe ratios and Jensen's alphas for portfolios of each new industry indicate that portfolios of stocks in firms in new industries are not an obvious bad deal. (JEL G1, G12, N2, N21, N22)