全文获取类型
收费全文 | 925篇 |
免费 | 30篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 160篇 |
民族学 | 4篇 |
人才学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 53篇 |
丛书文集 | 9篇 |
理论方法论 | 149篇 |
综合类 | 2篇 |
社会学 | 474篇 |
统计学 | 103篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 5篇 |
2021年 | 4篇 |
2020年 | 18篇 |
2019年 | 9篇 |
2018年 | 12篇 |
2017年 | 28篇 |
2016年 | 27篇 |
2015年 | 19篇 |
2014年 | 20篇 |
2013年 | 147篇 |
2012年 | 37篇 |
2011年 | 23篇 |
2010年 | 31篇 |
2009年 | 22篇 |
2008年 | 30篇 |
2007年 | 26篇 |
2006年 | 42篇 |
2005年 | 27篇 |
2004年 | 35篇 |
2003年 | 36篇 |
2002年 | 26篇 |
2001年 | 13篇 |
2000年 | 20篇 |
1999年 | 19篇 |
1998年 | 20篇 |
1997年 | 16篇 |
1996年 | 18篇 |
1995年 | 12篇 |
1994年 | 21篇 |
1993年 | 21篇 |
1992年 | 17篇 |
1991年 | 5篇 |
1990年 | 15篇 |
1989年 | 14篇 |
1988年 | 12篇 |
1987年 | 11篇 |
1986年 | 6篇 |
1985年 | 12篇 |
1984年 | 10篇 |
1983年 | 12篇 |
1982年 | 3篇 |
1981年 | 12篇 |
1980年 | 4篇 |
1979年 | 8篇 |
1978年 | 3篇 |
1977年 | 6篇 |
1976年 | 6篇 |
1975年 | 3篇 |
1974年 | 2篇 |
1973年 | 5篇 |
排序方式: 共有955条查询结果,搜索用时 93 毫秒
61.
Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products. 相似文献
62.
Gary Alan Fine 《The Sociological quarterly》2000,41(1):103-123
Although social constructionists have taken the process by which people learn to present social problems for granted, these skills are acquired in the course of socialization. Through high school debate, adolescents acquire techniques for making arguments, using evidence, and presenting claims to multiple audiences. In the process, they learn that taking a public position does not necessarily require a deeply held commitment. This model resonates with the institutional structure of politics and law in the United States in which adversaries battle each other in a rule-governed "game,'a contest ultimately evaluated by judges assumed to be impartial. To understand the process by which adolescents gain the skills to construct social problems, I conducted an ethnographic study of debate teams at two high schools. The ability to take both sides of an argument, express ideas with which one does not personally agree, and present powerful, if questionable, evidence, constrained by time, teaches teenagers how to engage in social problem discourse and provides a training ground for moral entrepreneurs. 相似文献
63.
We conduct laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of deterrence mechanisms under controlled conditions. The effect
of the expected cost of punishment of an individual’s decision to engage in a proscribed activity and the effect of uncertainty
on an individual’s decision to commit a violation are very difficult to isolate in field data. We use a roadway speeding framing
and find that (a) individuals respond considerably to increases in the expected cost of speeding, (b) uncertainty about the
enforcement regime yields a significant reduction in violations committed, and (c) people are much more likely to speed when
the punishment regime for which they voted is implemented. Our results have important implications for a behavioral theory
of deterrence under uncertainty. 相似文献
64.
Gary N. Chaison 《Journal of Labor Research》1997,18(2):373-374
65.
A comparative analysis of public sector restructuring in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean
We examine public sector restructuring in North America and selected Commonwealth Caribbean nations. Although all the countries
studied experienced significant restruc-turing in response to public debt pressures, there were major differences across coun-tries
in the magnitude, pace, form, and the manner in which restructuring decisions were made. These differences reflect the state
of economic development and institu-tional characteristics, e.g., the role of the state and the industrial relations system.
In developing countries, international lending institutions played a major role in trans-forming the role of the state. In
developed countries, the inherent stability of the eco-nomic systems and institutional pressures led to a gradualist approach
to restructuring. 相似文献
66.
Gary Hoppenstand 《Journal of popular culture》2010,43(4):669-670
67.
This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online. 相似文献
68.
69.
70.