The two-sample t test versus satterthwaite's approximate f test

A comparison between the two-sample t test and Satterthwaite's approximate F test is made, assuming the choice between these two tests is based on a preliminary test on the variances. Exact formulas for the sizes and powers of the tests are derived. Sizes and powers are then calculated and compared for several situations.     

A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Learning by Objectives for Adaptive Shop-Floor Scheduling*

Effective production scheduling requires consideration of the dynamics and unpredictability of the manufacturing environment. An automated learning scheme, utilizing genetic search, is proposed for adaptive control in typical decentralized factory-floor decision making. A high-level knowledge representation for modeling production environments is developed, with facilities for genetic learning within this scheme. A multiagent framework is used, with individual agents being responsible for the dispatch decision making at different workstations. Learning is with respect to stated objectives, and given the diversity of scheduling goals, the efficacy of the designed learning scheme is judged through its response under different objectives. The behavior of the genetic learning scheme is analyzed and simulation studies help compare how learning under different objectives impacts certain aggregate measures of system performance.     

早期酋长制群体的聚落形态比较研究——以内蒙古东部、安第斯山北部和美洲中部三个地区为例

对内蒙古东部、安第斯山北部和美洲中部三个地区的早期酋长制群体的聚落形态进 行的比较研究表明,尽管这三个地区的发展过程大致相当,但在这三个地区中,大体类似的转变 却以不同的方式发生,从而导致了三个各具特色的等级社会的出现。最初的、大规模的、以等级 制度原则组织起来的酋长制群体出现后,其发展轨道的早期阶段明显地为后来的、较大的、更复 杂的政治实体即国家的出现创造了条件。通过地域性聚落分析,可以发现这三个地区在不同规模 层次上的人口和社会组织的异同,其中在赤峰和奥哈卡(Oaxaca)地区都存在的小型群体却不见 于马格达雷那高地(AltoMagdalena)的现象,需要进行更深入的研究,才能进一步揭示出在马 格达雷那高地是什么样的社会交流把这些家庭联合成更大的社会团体。     

Will you trust your new boss? The role of affective reactions to leadership succession

Affective reactions to the departure of work group leaders are proposed as an important determinant of members' trust-related judgments regarding new leaders. A field test of veterinary hospital employees evaluating new leaders revealed that the affective reaction to the departure of the prior group leader predicted trust when there was no history between the individuals. When there was history between the two individuals, the group member's evaluation of the new leader's ability on their prior job was a significant predictor of trust over and above their affective reaction to the succession. The relationships between affective reactions to succession and trust formation were replicated in a longitudinal simulation of trust formation in student groups. The implications of these findings for the study of trust in organizations and leadership succession processes in work groups are discussed.     

Airline Negotiations and the New Concessionary Bargaining

I ask whether the highly confrontational collective bargaining in the airlines is unique to that industry or a sign of a deepening crisis in union–management relations nationally. First, airline labor relations are reviewed in the context of extremely contentious negotiations, intense industry competition, complex and fragmented bargaining structures, frequent bankruptcies, and unpredictable external shocks. Next, concessionary bargaining in the airlines is discussed, and a new and extreme form of concessionary bargaining is identified. The emergence of the new concessionary bargaining in the airlines and its spread to the automobile sector is then interpreted as the early signs of a fundamental transformation of collective bargaining. The implications of the new concessionary bargaining are then described at the workplace, company, union, and societal levels.

Death by survey: Estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival data

The widely used methods for estimating adult mortality rates from sample survey responses about the survival of siblings, parents, spouses, and others depend crucially on an assumption that, as we demonstrate, does not hold in real data. We show that when this assumption is violated so that the mortality rate varies with sibship size, mortality estimates can be massively biased. By using insights from work on the statistical analysis of selection bias, survey weighting, and extrapolation problems, we propose a new and relatively simple method of recovering the mortality rate with both greatly reduced potential for bias and increased clarity about the source of necessary assumptions.     

Disruption and the theory of the interaction order

Micro-sociological theory has traditionally stressed interactional pressures towards alignment: actors’ attempts to co-construct a shared definition of the situation. We argue that this model provides an insufficient account of the coordination of action and of the emergence of intersubjectivity among actors. To complement the focus on alignment, we develop a theory of disruption—a perceived misalignment of the dramaturgical structure of interaction in coordinating expected lines of action. We develop a theory of the interaction order that takes the interplay between interactional alignment and disruption as a foundational challenge both for sociology and for actors in their everyday lives. We focus on the practical ways in which actors negotiate both interactional breaches and wider relational ruptures, and how they differentiate between disruptions-of relations and disruptions-for them. By doing so, we connect the interaction order to a wider relational order, providing a bridge between micro-level interactionism and the sociology of culture.

     

Occupational mobility and cognitive ability: A commentary on Betthäuser,Bourne and Bukodi

This commentary critiques Betthäuser, Bourne and Bukodi's (2020) paper which finds that cognitive ability does not substantially mediate class of origin effects on educational and occupational outcomes. From these results, they conclude that cognitive ability is only of minor importance for social stratification, reasserting their view of the primacy of class origins for social stratification. The central issue surrounding cognitive ability in social stratification is its effects on socioeconomic attainments vis-à-vis socioeconomic origins, not the extent that cognitive ability mediates classorigin effects. Their analytical strategy of estimating the extent that cognitive ability mediates class origineffects is misleading because: it ignores the only moderate associations of socioeconomic origins with educational and occupational outcomes; the stronger direct effects of cognitive ability; the associations of parents’ ability with their own socioeconomic attainments; and the genetic transmission of cognitive ability and other traits relevant to social stratification from parents to their children.