Balancing type I and type II error probabilities: further comments on proof of safety vs proof of hazard

This paper elaborates on earlier contributions of Bross (1985) and Millard (1987) who point out that when conducting conventional hypothesis tests in order to “prove” environmental hazard or environmental safety, unrealistically large sample sizes are required to achieve acceptable power with customarily-used values of Type I error probability. These authors also note that “proof of safety” typically requires much larger sample sizes than “proof of hazard”. When the sample has yet to be selected and it is feared that the sample size will be insufficient to conduct a reasonable.     

Valuing publicly sponsored research projects: Risks,scenario adjustments,and inattention

Survey-based choice scenarios used to value non-market public goods typically preclude any risk that the benefits described may not be delivered. Our survey specifies explicit risks of (a) outright program failure and (b) program redundancy due to possible private sector substitutes. Additionally, most analyses assume that survey subjects fully accept these scenarios and that all provided information receives their complete attention. Our discounted expected utility model of choice accommodates both these objective risks and the possibility of subjective scenario adjustment or selective inattention by respondents. We then counterfactually simulate willingness-to-pay in the absence of these distortions.

Anthropometric and Behavioral Measures Related to Mindfulness in College Students

Abstract

Objective: To determine whether mindfulness is associated with physical and behavioral measures in first semester college students. Participants: Male and female first year college students (n = 75) from the University of Rhode Island. Methods: Height, weight, waist circumference (WC), and blood pressure were assessed and online questionnaires were completed. Independent t tests and Pearson correlations were utilized for analysis. Results: The less mindful group had a higher WC than the more mindful group. Correlations were seen between mindfulness and weight-related behaviors. Conclusions: Mindfulness can impact health status of first year college students, particularly with behavioral measures that have been found to effect weight status. However, additional research is needed focusing on mindfulness as a potential weight gain prevention technique for first year college students in order to decrease chronic disease prevalence.     

Integration and Cospecialization of Emerging Complementary Technologies by Startups

We analyze the market entry problem faced by startups that must integrate their service or product with one or more complementary technologies. The problem is especially challenging when the complementary technologies have uncertain cost reduction potentials. The entrepreneurship literature suggests that startups should pursue focused strategies for various reasons, including bounded rationality and budget constraints, but generally overlooks startups entering markets with complementary technologies. The advice for mature firms investing in complementary technologies is often to diversify investment across multiple complements to manage technological uncertainty. Given competing guidance, we seek to extend the entrepreneurship literature by modeling startups' entry decisions for markets in which complementary technologies exhibit strong learning effects. We find that, consistent with the extant entrepreneurship literature, startups generally achieve higher expected returns by channeling their integration investment to only one complementary technology. However, the mechanisms driving our results differ significantly by hinging on nonlinear feedback effects that occur when firms concentrate integration investment in only one complementary technology. Interestingly, this focused strategy often does not yield the highest market share or the lowest likelihood of bankruptcy. We characterize the situations under which each finding holds and describe the implications of these findings for theory, practice, and policy.     

Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition

The usual lessons drawn from East Asia's striking experience of health and fertility transition concern the efficacy of well‐designed government programs catering to an existing or ideationally stimulated demand. An alternative interpretation sees the demographic change—and the uptake of services—as a byproduct of social and economic development together with, in some cases, strong government pressures. This article probes more deeply into this experience, seeking to identify common features of development design and administration that underlay it. The broad sequence entailed, initially, establishment of an effective, typically authoritarian, system of local administration, providing (sometimes incidentally) a framework for promotion and service delivery in health, education, and family planning. Subsequent economic liberalization offered new opportunities for upward mobility—and greater risks of backsliding—but along with erosion of social capital and the breakdown or privatization of service programs. The study is mainly focused on seven countries: Taiwan and South Korea (“tiger” economies), Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia (“second wave” countries), and China and Vietnam (“market‐Leninist” economies). The period is roughly from the 1960s to the 1990s.     

Short Reviews

Books reviewed in this article: Max Essex, Souleymane Mboup, Phyllis J. Kanki, Richard G. Marlink, and Sheila D. Tlou (eds.) AIDS in Africa, Second Edition Virginie Guiraudon and Christian Joppke (eds.) Controlling a New Migration World Anke Niehof and Firman Lubis (eds.) Two Is Enough: Family Planning in Indonesia under the New Order 1968–1998 Donald T. Rowland Demographic Methods and Concepts Thomas Scharping Birth Control in China, 1949–2000: Population Policy and Demographic Development Nelly P. Stromquist Education in a Globalized World: The Connectivity of Economic Power, Technology, and Knowledge United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision Yunxiang Yan Private Life Under Socialism: Love, Intimacy, and Family Change in a Chinese Village, 1949–1999     

Institutional impediments to population policy in Australia

Despite being near the top of the OECD league in rate of population growth, Australia does not have any explicit population policy. The potential constituent parts of one, particularly on immigration, family and environment, are firmly enmeshed in separate political domains and responsive to separate clusters of interests. Vague, demographically ill-informed, and mutually inconsistent views of a desired population size or trajectory for Australia co-exist, with no arena for systematic engagement and considered debate among them. Australia is not alone in this respect: instructive parallels can be drawn from Canada and the United States. Indeed, population policy may well be one of the issues that modern liberal democracies find peculiarly difficult to deal with. However, there are also specific historical circumstances that led to this outcome, and that perpetuate it. Revised version of a paper presented at the Seventh National Conference of the Australian Population Association, held in Canberra in September 1994.     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Tom Athanasiou, Divided Planet: The Ecology of Rich and Poor Ester Boserup, My Professional Life and Publications 1929–1998 Joachim von Braun, Tesfaye Tekxu, and Patrick Webb, Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and Prevention John Brotchie, Peter Newton, Peter Hall, and John Dickey (eds.), East West Perspectives on 21st Century Urban Development: Sustainable Eastern and Western Cities in the New Millennium Alex de Sherbinin and Victoria Dompka (eds.), Water and Population Dynamics: Case Studies and Policy Implications Pamela Feldman-Savelsberg, Plundered Kitchens, Empty Wombs: Threatened Reproduction and Identity in the Cameroon Grassfields Peter H. Gleick, The World's Water 1998–1999: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources Inge Kaul, Isabelle Grunberg, and Marc A. Stern (eds.), Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21st Century Patricia W. Lunneborg, The Chosen Lives of Childfree Men Thomas Gale Moore, Climate of Fear: Why We Shouldn't Worry About Global Warming United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Volume I: Comprehensive Tables; Volume II: The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Population US Agency for International Development and US Department of Commerce, World Population Profile: 1998, with a Special Chapter Focusing on HIV I AIDS in the Developing World