A multimethod assessment of personal space development in female and male,black and white children

In order to obtain evidence of the effects of demographic parameters and measurement techniques on personal space, several different assessments were used to determine the impact of subject age, race, and sex on interpersonal distancing. Thirteen different variables representing stimulation, paper-and-pencil, and behavioral techniques indicated that as age increased, personal space requirements decreased, particularly for whites. Blacks as compared to whites required less space at age 7, and mixed-sex dyads tended to require more space than same-sex dyads. The results thus indicate that while some previous findings appear to be measurement method specific, others show intermethod consistency.     

Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter‐in‐Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation

We superimpose a radiation fallout model onto a traffic flow model to assess the evacuation versus shelter‐in‐place decisions after the daytime ground‐level detonation of a 10‐kt improvised nuclear device in Washington, DC. In our model, ≈80k people are killed by the prompt effects of blast, burn, and radiation. Of the ≈360k survivors without access to a vehicle, 42.6k would die if they immediately self‐evacuated on foot. Sheltering above ground would save several thousand of these lives and sheltering in a basement (or near the middle of a large building) would save of them. Among survivors of the prompt effects with access to a vehicle, the number of deaths depends on the fraction of people who shelter in a basement rather than self‐evacuate in their vehicle: 23.1k people die if 90% shelter in a basement and 54.6k die if 10% shelter. Sheltering above ground saves approximately half as many lives as sheltering in a basement. The details related to delayed (i.e., organized) evacuation, search and rescue, decontamination, and situational awareness (via, e.g., telecommunications) have very little impact on the number of casualties. Although antibiotics and transfusion support have the potential to save ≈10k lives (and the number of lives saved from medical care increases with the fraction of people who shelter in basements), the logistical challenge appears to be well beyond current response capabilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the government should initiate an aggressive outreach program to educate citizens and the private sector about the importance of sheltering in place in a basement for at least 12 hours after a terrorist nuclear detonation.     

Obtaining a Trapezoidal Distribution

Given a most believed value for a quantity together with upper and lower possible deviations from that value, a rectangular distribution might be used to represent state-of-knowledge about the quantity. If the deviations are themselves known by probability distributions, and the value conditioned on the deviations is rectangular, then the marginal distribution of the value is determined by the distributions of the deviations. Here we show under quite general conditions that conversely, given the marginal distribution, the distributions of the deviations are uniquely determined. The case in which the marginal distribution is trapezoidal is studied in some detail.     

Age-period-cohort analysis: an illustration of the problems in assessing interaction in one observation per cell data

This paper discusses the specific problems of age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis within the general framework of interaction assessment for two-way cross-classified data with one observation per cell. The A-P-C multiple classification model containing the effects of age groups (rows), periods of observation (columns), and birth cohorts (diagonals of the two-way table) is characterized as one of a special class of models involving interaction terms assumed to have very specific forms. The so-called A-P-C identification problem, which results from the use of a particular interaction structure for detecting cohort effects, is shown to manifest itself in the form of an exact linear dependency among the columns of the design matrix. The precise relationship holding among these columns is derived, as is an explicit formula for the bias in the parameter estimates resulting from an incorrect specification of an assumed restriction on the parameters required to solve the normal equations. Current methods for modeling A-P-C data are critically reviewed, an illustrative numerical example is presented, and one potentially promising analysis strategy is discussed. However, gien the large number of possible sources for error in A-P-C analyses, it is strongly recommended that the results of such analyses be interpreted with a great deal of caution.     

Umvu estimators for the population mean and variance based on random effects models for lognormal data

Cross-classified data are often obtained in controlled experimental situations and in epidemiologic studies. As an example of the latter, occupational health studies sometimes require personal exposure measurements on a random sample of workers from one or more job groups, in one or more plant locations, on several different sampling dates. Because the marginal distributions of exposure data from such studies are generally right-skewed and well-approximated as lognormal, researchers in this area often consider the use of ANOVA models after a logarithmic transformation. While it is then of interest to estimate original-scale population parameters (e.g., the overall mean and variance), standard candidates such as maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can be unstable and highly biased. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) cstiniators offer a viable alternative, and are adaptable to sampling schemes that are typiral of experimental or epidemiologic studies. In this paper, we provide UMVU estimators for the mean and variance under two random effects ANOVA models for logtransformed data. We illustrate substantial mean squared error gains relative to the MLE when estimating the mean under a one-way classification. We illustrate that the results can readily be extended to encompass a useful class of purely random effects models, provided that the study data are balanced.     

The robustness of the likelihood ratio test,the nonparametric sum rank test,and f-ratio tests when the populations are from the negative binomial family

In this study, the robustness of power and significance level of several statistical testing methods was evaluated under the assumption that the test populations were from Poisson, negative binomial, or geometric distributions. The F-ratio test, with or without appropriate transformations, was shown to be both safe and robust for all distributions examined.     

Issues in blinded sample size re-estimation

The utility of blinded sample size re-estimation for clinical trials depends on the ability to estimate variability without providing information about the true treatment difference, and on some reasonable assurance that the method is not likely to cause the sample size to be increased when the treatment effect is better than anticipated. We show that violations of these properties are unlikely to occur in practice.