Does insurance fraud in automobile theft insurance fluctuate with the business cycle?

Financial institutions face various cyclical risks, but very few studies have analyzed the cyclicality of operational risk. External fraud is an important operational risk faced by insurers. In this research, we analyze the empirical relationship between insurance fraud and the business cycle and we concentrate our study on two insurance contracts that may create an incentive to defraud. We find that residual insurance fraud exists both in the contract with replacement cost endorsement and the contract with no-deductible endorsement in the Taiwan automobile theft insurance market. These results are consistent with previous literature on the relationship between fraud activity and non-optimal insurance contracting. We also show that the severity of insurance fraud is countercyclical. Fraud is stimulated during periods of recession and mitigated during periods of expansion. Although this last result seems intuitive, our contribution is the first to measure its significance.     

On principles and arguments to likelihood

Birnbaum (1962a) argued that the conditionality principle (C) and the sufficiency principle (S) implied the likelihood principle (L); he then argued (Birnbaum 1972) that C and a mathematical equivalence principle M implied L. Evans, Fraser, and Monette (1985a) gave reference details, and this paper gives proof that C alone implies L. The level of support by the profession for L is sharply less than that for S or even for C; thus the paradoxical nature of these results. In this regard, we elaborate on the Monette example (Fraser, Monette, and Ng 1984), which provides a strong case against L. We also examine closely the various proofs linking the principles and find that S and C can each be used operationally to suppress information otherwise deemed relevant. From another viewpoint this says that S and C can each be used in contexts that directly conflict with the original examples and motivations supporting them; the principles can thus be viewed as inappropriately used, or more strongly, as invalid. In either case, the result that C and S imply L or that C implies L can be regarded as noneffective in the context of discriminating applications. A resolution of the apparent anomalies can be obtained by allowing the statistical model to include ingredients additional to those usually present (particularly for subsequent use with conditionality), or alternatively by restricting the application of the principles to contexts where the conflicts would seem not to arise.     

On the influence of extreme parties in electoral competition with policy-motivated candidates

We study and compare equilibrium platforms in models of unidimensional electoral competition with two and four policy motivated parties. We first analyze the plurality game, where the party getting the most votes is elected and implements its proposed platform. Restrictions on the set of credible announcements are needed to get existence of equilibria. Comparing equilibria with two and four parties, we obtain that moderate parties react to the introduction of extreme parties by proposing the same or more extreme equilibrium platforms. We then study the proportional system, where the policy implemented is a weighted sum of the proposals, with the voting shares as weights. Here, the existence of extreme parties leads moderate ones to choose more centrist platforms. We finally test the robustness of our results with respect to, first, the enlargement of the strategy space to entry decisions and, second, to asymmetric distributions of voters' blisspoints.

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Nationality and the European union competing identities in the visual design of four European cities 1

In this study, we integrate visual and linguistic research to analyze the relationship between a city's regional, national, transnational, and European identities as the face of four cities depicts it. We explore the cultural identity of Brussels, Luxembourg, Munich, and Dortmund through the study of public signs found in these cities. We examine how the choice of language, layout, typography, accompanying images, and positioning of city signs reflect the tensions involving the change from a national or regional identity to a Pan‐European identity. Our methodology combines an ethnographic approach and neutral observations with interviews of city inhabitants. By combining interpretive analysis with a meta‐discursive approach to how signs are read and perceived, we consider both the production and reception ends of the signs.     

Righting the balance: Understanding introverts (and extraverts) in the workplace

Since being introduced over a century ago, trait extraversion and introversion have generated substantial research. However, this research has focused primarily on extraversion, with introversion being relatively neglected. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to take stock of extraversion and introversion research in the workplace. Doing so allows us to propose a shift in focus away from extraversion to the study of introversion and its potential positive benefits. First, we briefly review the traits’ evolution during the past century and then examine 10 commonly used trait extraversion scales to better understand how extraversion and introversion are studied. Thereafter, we review 10 years of scholarship (2009–2019) appearing in 12 leading management journals. Overall, we find that there is a positive bias towards extraversion and its positively valenced characteristics such as positive affect, outgoingness and socialness. In contrast, our review reveals that introversion is treated as ‘low extraversion’ and often imbued with negatively valenced characteristics such as social awkwardness and low social self-esteem. Based on our multilevel review of the literature, we propose a working list of positively valenced characteristics of introversion and suggest how these introversion characteristics might be beneficial at multiple levels in organizations. In doing so, we hope that our paper will generate new ways of seeing introversion and extraversion alike, which should help right the balance in our shared understanding of how extraversion and introversion can positively shape workplace outcomes.     

Article quality and publication impact via levels of analysis incorporation: An illustration with transformational/charismatic leadership

Calls for the inclusion of levels of analysis in theory building and testing have increased over the last 25 years. Through analysis of 539 published articles we assess the prevalence of incorporation of levels of analysis in theory/hypothesis formulation, measurement, data analysis, and subsequent theory–data alignment (i.e., article quality) within charismatic and transformational leadership research. Additionally, we examine the relationship between incorporation of levels of analysis into research and publication source quality, as reflected by journal impact factors or when not available, estimated journal impact factors. When controlling for the level of analysis within all articles, results revealed that increasing the complexity of the level of analysis (i.e., higher than individual level), increased the likelihood that measurement, analysis and alignment of theory and data would be presented at the appropriate levels of analysis. In contrast, for articles with published impact factors, when controlling for the level of analysis, results revealed that increasing the complexity of the level of analysis (i.e., higher than individual level) decreased the likelihood that measurement, analysis and alignment of theory and data would be presented at the appropriate levels of analysis.     

从村庄建设到地区发展————乡村集群发展模式

根据比利时Meetjesland农业地区集群发展模式和区域发展的广义梯度理论及中国城乡关系演化趋势,中国城乡一体化应建立在“城市群-乡村集群”的基础之上,并将“乡乡一体化”作为“城乡一体化”的前提。基于中国国情的乡村集群发展模式应当是：　以地区发展为价值观,建立以县(县级市)为依托的乡村集群合作平台,制定乡村集群发展战略规划并推进品牌策略,以集群的优势实现中国乡村地区主动、可持续发展。     

Changes in Objective and Self-Reported Measures of Physical Capacity After an Intervention in Obese Older Women

The aim of this study was to determine if objective and self-reported measures of physical capacity are two equivalent methods to detect changes following an intervention in obese older women. 36 obese women aged between 55 and 75 years participated in a 3-month study with the aim of improving physical capacity by caloric restriction and/or resistance training. Physical capacity was measured objectively with 10 different tests and self-reported with the SF-36 physical functioning score (SF-36 PF score). Then the performance-to-objective tests were computed using quartiles to provide a baseline global physical capacity score. The mean percentage of change of the 10 tests as well as the SF-36 PF score were also calculated after the study. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray (DXA) absorptiometry. The baseline global physical capacity score and the SF-36 PF score were significantly correlated at baseline (r = 0.43; P < 0.01). Eight out of the 10 objective tests of physical capacity improved after the intervention, while no improvement was observed for the SF-36 PF score. On average, percentage of change in physical capacity was 4.1 ± 5.9% for the SF-36 PF score and 11.1 ± 2.9% for the objective measures. However, no significant correlation was observed between percentage of changes between the two approaches after the intervention (r = 0.32; P = 0.07). Based on these results, the method used to quantify physical capacity after an intervention may have major implications on the outcomes. The methods used should be carefully analyzed in regard to the objective of the study.