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11.
This article presents estimates of the sources and the extent of observation errors in different questionnaires and methods used to collect birth and death data in the 1961-63 multi-purpose sample survey of Morocco.The questionnaires used in the analysis of the three survey rounds were a list of household members (Rounds1 and 2) and a roll-call (Round3); retrospective death (Rounds1, 2, and 3) and birth (Round 3) queries; a date-of-birth tabulation (Round 2); and a household check-sheet to explain differences between Rounds 1 and 2. All available questionnaires for a given household were brought together and collated to provide several sources of information on births and deaths and a basis for assessing errors.From this analysis, the survey attempted to define the nature and to estimate the frequency of the errors which would have occurred if more restricted types of survey design had been used. Results, based on the period between Rounds 1 and 2, led to three major conclusions.First, if vital data had been collected with a single-round retrospective procedure, gross error (over enumeration plus underenumeration) would have been 17 percent for births and 36 percent for deaths. There is a net error of overenumeration of 3 percent for births (1.4 per1,000population) and 9 percent for deaths (2.3 per1,000population).Second, if two rounds were available to permit a combination of household composition follow-up and a retrospective mortality questionnaire, overenumeration would be almost entirely eliminated and underenumeration would be noticeably reduced. Third, most of the remaining errors of underestimation may be attributed to (1) an estimated number of infants born and deceased between two rounds and missed by all questionnaires, (2) matching failures caused by the absence of adults at Round 1, and (3) matching errors. 相似文献
12.
Georges A. Becus 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1977,5(1):133-139
A random generalized solution to the Robin problem for Laplace's equation is defined in terms of the sections of the random boundary data. Existence, uniqueness, and properties are established for such a solution. Particularizations to the Dirichlet and Newmann problems as well as generalization to the Robin-Poisson problem are mentioned. Applications of the results are provided. 相似文献
13.
We consider a repeated electoral competition game between two parties, each representing a constituent with a given income
level. Parties are unable to commit to a policy before the election; they choose a nonlinear income tax schedule once elected.
In each period, citizens cast a vote either for the incumbent or for the challenger. We first show that there exist (pure
strategy) subgame perfect equilibria where both parties choose the most-preferred tax schedule of their constituent, subject
to the constraint that they are reelected. We characterize a specific class of these BPR (Best Policy with Reelection) equilibria
in which one of the parties plays its constituent’s unconstrained optimal tax function. Equilibrium tax schedules are always
piecewise linear. Depending on the income levels of the two parties’ constituents, we obtain either classical left-vs-right
equilibria (where the poor vote for one party and the rich for the other one) or ends-against-the-middle equilibria (where
both poor and rich vote for one party while the middle class votes for the other party). In both types of equilibria, both
parties propose the same tax schedule to a subset of the population. 相似文献
14.
We study the relationship between polygyny and HIV infection using nationally representative survey data with linked serostatus information from 20 African countries. Our results indicate that junior wives in polygynous unions are more likely to be HIV positive than spouses of monogamous men, but also that HIV prevalence is lower in populations with more polygyny. With these results in mind, we investigate four explanations for the contrasting individual- and ecological-level associations. These relate to (1) the adverse selection of HIV-positive women into polygynous unions, (2) the sexual network structure characteristic of polygyny, (3) the relatively low coital frequency in conjugal dyads of polygynous marriages (coital dilution), and (4) the restricted access to sexual partners for younger men in populations where polygynous men presumably monopolize the women in their community (monopolizing polygynists). We find evidence for some of these mechanisms, and together they support the proposition that polygynous marriage systems impede the spread of HIV. We relate these results to the debate about partnership concurrency as a primary behavioral driver for the fast propagation of HIV in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. 相似文献
15.
NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ides Boone Yves Van der Stede Kaatje Bollaerts David Vose Dominiek Maes Jeroen Dewulf Winy Messens Georges Daube Marc Aerts Koen Mintiens 《Risk analysis》2009,29(4):502-517
The numeral unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate the quality of input parameters in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. The input parameters were grouped according to four successive exposure pathways: (1) primary production (2) transport, holding, and slaughterhouse, (3) postprocessing, distribution, and storage, and (4) preparation and consumption. An inventory of 101 potential input parameters was used for building the QMRA model. The characteristics of each parameter were defined using a standardized procedure to assess (1) the source of information, (2) the sampling methodology and sample size, and (3) the distributional properties of the estimate. Each parameter was scored by a panel of experts using a pedigree matrix containing four criteria (proxy, empirical basis, method, and validation) to assess the quality, and this was graphically represented by means of kite diagrams. The parameters obtained significantly lower scores for the validation criterion as compared with the other criteria. Overall strengths of parameters related to the primary production module were significantly stronger compared to the other modules (the transport, holding, and slaughterhouse module, the processing, distribution, and storage module, and the preparation and consumption module). The pedigree assessment contributed to select 20 parameters, which were subsequently introduced in the QMRA model. The NUSAP methodology and kite diagrams are objective tools to discuss and visualize the quality of the parameters in a structured way. These two tools can be used in the selection procedure of input parameters for a QMRA, and can lead to a more transparent quality assurance in the QMRA. 相似文献
16.
Large scale immigration to the United States and a sluggish national economy have brought to the forefront of the current immigration policy debate, the question of whether immigrants fully pay—in the form of taxes—for the public services they use. Recent estimates of the costs of immigration differ so widely that they have confused rather than enlightened that debate. This paper argues that a uniform accounting framework must be agreed to if future studies are to provide credible and reliable estimates of costs and benefits upon which immigration policy can be formulated. The key conceptual, factual, and accounting issues that are to be addressed for the development of such a framework are outlined. 相似文献
17.
18.
Lior Cohen-Raz Menahem Bozna Joseph Glicksohn 《International Journal of Group Tensions》1997,27(3):151-158
Existing group tensions provide a convenient background against which one might both judge the severity of a violent crime and understand the underlying motivation for such an act. By changing the presented context, one should be able to influence the perceived severity of the crime. In the present experiment, 33 Israeli policemen were presented with a series of vignettes describing incidents of an assault with bodily harm. Information included in the incidents was varied systematically according to a 4-way factorial design: Context (Extremist or Criminal), Identity of Assailant (Jew or Arab), Identity of Victim (Jew or Arab), and Degree of Bodily Harm (Low or High). The participants were asked to rate the severity of the assault and of their understanding of the assailant's motivation. The findings are discussed in terms of attributional tendencies. 相似文献
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