Does insurance fraud in automobile theft insurance fluctuate with the business cycle?

Financial institutions face various cyclical risks, but very few studies have analyzed the cyclicality of operational risk. External fraud is an important operational risk faced by insurers. In this research, we analyze the empirical relationship between insurance fraud and the business cycle and we concentrate our study on two insurance contracts that may create an incentive to defraud. We find that residual insurance fraud exists both in the contract with replacement cost endorsement and the contract with no-deductible endorsement in the Taiwan automobile theft insurance market. These results are consistent with previous literature on the relationship between fraud activity and non-optimal insurance contracting. We also show that the severity of insurance fraud is countercyclical. Fraud is stimulated during periods of recession and mitigated during periods of expansion. Although this last result seems intuitive, our contribution is the first to measure its significance.     

The credit channel of monetary policy transmission: evidence from stock returns

This paper offers a novel test of the credit view of the monetary policy transmission mechanism using stock market returns. We identify Fed policy shocks using newspaper accounts and track daily stock prices immediately following the shocks. If the credit channel is important, then firms that are dependent on bank credit and internal funds should receive a relatively greater benefit (loss) from a Fed easing (tightening) than firms with access to nonbank credit at favorable terms. We identify ten policy shocks during the expansion of 1993-94 and the 'credit crunch' period of the 1990-91 recession and find little evidence supportive of an operative credit channel.     

Simulation as a research tool in management studies

Simulation is still rarely used by management researchers, particularly those who study business and other systems as social rather than technical or mechanical entities. Why? This article explores this question. The validation issue in simulation research and several examples of good simulation practice are discussed. The main reasons for the low status of simulation research in management studies are: the emphasis on academic specialization rather than craftsmanship, the complicated systems rather than complex systems viewpoint, and the paradigm of the empirical sciences rather than design sciences which prevails in management studies.     

Replacement Cost Endorsement and Opportunistic Fraud in Automobile Insurance

Traditional insurance contracts do not offer protection against the replacement value of a vehicle. A replacement cost endorsement gives the opportunity to get a new vehicle in the case of a total theft or in the case of total destruction of the car in a road accident. This type of protection was introduced in Canada in the late 1980's. It is also offered in France and many insurers in the United States are going to move in that direction. We propose tests that separate moral hazard from adverse selection in the analysis of the effect of this additional protection on car theft. We show that holders of car insurance policies with a replacement cost endorsement have a higher probability of theft near the end of this additional protection (usually 24 months following the acquisition of a new car). Our tests indicate that this result is a form of ex post moral hazard or opportunistic insurance fraud.     

Lottery Decisions and Probability Weighting Function

This article analyzes the implications of basic lottery tests for the probability weighting function w(p). We first show that the w(p) function with one argument cannot accommodate three basic tests of lottery choice. We also discuss in detail the links between the w(p) function with one argument and the preference reversal paradox. In the last section we propose an evaluation function that accommodates the restrictions imposed by the tests and we provide an example of such function.