Tall claims? Sense and nonsense about the importance of height of US presidents

According to both the scientific literature and popular media, all one needs to win a US presidential election is to be taller than one's opponent. Yet, such claims are often based on an arbitrary selection of elections, and inadequate statistical analysis. Using data on all presidential elections, we show that height is indeed an important factor in the US presidential elections. Candidates that were taller than their opponents received more popular votes, although they were not significantly more likely to win the actual election. Taller presidents were also more likely to be reelected. In addition, presidents were, on average, much taller than men from the same birth cohort. The advantage of taller candidates is potentially explained by perceptions associated with height: taller presidents are rated by experts as ‘greater’, and having more leadership and communication skills. We conclude that height is an important characteristic in choosing and evaluating political leaders.     

Assessing manual lifting tasks based on segment angle interpolations

This study investigates the effects of the number of interpolation points on the prediction accuracy of segment angle trajectory during lifting. Ten participants performed various lifting tasks while a motion tracking system recorded their movements. Two-point through ten-point equal time-spaced segment angles extracted from major segment trajectory data captured by the motion tracking system were used to re-generate the whole body lifting motion by using polynomial and cubic spline interpolation methods. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the reference (motion tracking system) and the estimated (interpolation method) segment angle trajectories were calculated to quantify the prediction accuracy. The results showed that the cubic spline interpolation will yield a smaller RMSE value than one based on the polynomial interpolation. While increasing the number of interpolation points can reduce the RMSE of the estimated segment angle trajectories, there was a diminishing advantage in continuing to add interpolation points. A sensitivity analysis suggests that if the estimation of the segment angles at each interpolation point deviates considerably from the real value, and cannot be controlled at a low level (<10 (), the use of higher number of interpolation points will not improve the estimation accuracy.     

Ethnic Composition and School Performance in the Secondary Education of Turkish Migrant Students in Seven Countries and 19 European Educational Systems

This article examines the effect of the ethnic composition on school performances in secondary education for Turkish students, using both cross‐national and Swiss national PISA 2009 data. At the school level our results show no effect of the proportion of natives or the proportion of coethnics and a negative association between ethnic diversity (we employ a residualized score of diversity on the proportion of migrants) and math performances. Consequently, we find no evidence for social capital advantages and an indication of barriers. Finally, we find no association between social capital variables on national or educational system level and math performance.     

The Liberalization of Maternity Leave Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany

German federal law has increased the potential duration of maternity leave five times since 1985. A theoretical model demonstrates that the cumulative return probability at potential duration cannot decline unless the mother's employment conditions or career expectations change. We estimate return to work hazards from the German Socio-Economic Panel for women bearing children in the period 1984–1991 and predict cumulative return probabilities for first-time mothers and mothers with a previous birth. The pattern of cumulative return probabilities as potential duration increases is consistent with the hypothesis that employment conditions or career expectations frequently change for mothers taking longer leaves.     

Religiös-konfessionelle Kultur und individuelle Religiosität: Ein Vergleich zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland

In religious terms, East and West Germany are still two separate societies more than 20 years after reunification. While the large majority of the population in West Germany belongs to one of the two main Christian churches, the proportion of those without a denomination in East Germany is now more than 70 %. Moreover, as far as church involvement, confidence in the church and individual religiosity are concerned, the West Germans have a much stronger religious affiliation to the church than their East German counterparts. The main reason for this difference is the influence of different political systems and legal cultures in East and West during the period when the two parts of Germany were divided. The fact, though, that the process of secularization has continued unabated in East Germany since 1989, and that the religious and ecclesiastical discrepancies between the two parts of the country have, if anything, become stronger rather than weaker since then, would suggest that there are other factors at work here, too. In this contribution, we argue that one of the factors that needs to be considered is the dominant denominational culture that exists in each of the two parts of the country, a culture which is highly persistent, can easily reproduce itself, puts pressure on the respective minority cultures, and is able to diffuse into them. While the dominant denominational culture in West Germany is able to slow down the current processes of secularization, the secular, non-denominational majority culture in the East tends rather to produce effects which accelerate these processes. In this essay, we use a variety of empirical indicators (effectiveness of religious socialization, denominational affiliation, churchly affiliation, faith in God) to demonstrate these effects.     

INDIVIDUAL RISK ATTITUDES: MEASUREMENT,DETERMINANTS, AND BEHAVIORAL CONSEQUENCES

This paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects' homes. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks “in general”, we find that gender, age, height, and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks. The experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure, using paid lottery choices. Turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts, we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes, and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts. We conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks, occupational choice, and smoking. The question about risk taking in general generates the best all‐round predictor of risky behavior.     

Algorithmic parameterization of mixed treatment comparisons

Mixed Treatment Comparisons (MTCs) enable the simultaneous meta-analysis (data pooling) of networks of clinical trials comparing ??2 alternative treatments. Inconsistency models are critical in MTC to assess the overall consistency between evidence sources. Only in the absence of considerable inconsistency can the results of an MTC (consistency) model be trusted. However, inconsistency model specification is non-trivial when multi-arm trials are present in the evidence structure. In this paper, we define the parameterization problem for inconsistency models in mathematical terms and provide an algorithm for the generation of inconsistency models. We evaluate running-time of the algorithm by generating models for 15 published evidence structures.     

Religious individualization or secularization? Testing hypotheses of religious change – the case of Eastern and Western Germany

The individualization thesis advanced by sociologists of religion such as Grace Davie, Danièle Hervieu-Léger, Michael Krüggeler, Thomas Luckmann, Hubert Knoblauch, Wade Clark Roof, Wayne E. Baker, and others has become increasingly widespread especially in Europe within the sociology of religion. In contrast to the secularization theory it assumes that processes of modernization will not lead to a decline in the social significance of religion, but rather to a change in its social forms. According to the individualization theory, traditional and institutionalized forms of religiosity will be increasingly replaced by more subjective ones detached form church, individually chosen, and syncretistic in character. The article examines the empirical applicability of the individualization thesis on the basis of how religiosity and church affiliation have evolved in Germany over the past 50 years. It comes to the conclusion that the rise of individually determined non-church religiosity cannot compensate for the losses of institutionalized religiosity, since non-church religiosity remains rather marginal and is interwoven with traditional Christian religiosity. Religious individualization is only a component of the predominant secularization process.