REGRESSION ANALYSIS USING SCRAMBLED RESPONSES

This paper investigates the general linear regression model Y = Xβ+e assuming the dependent variable is observed as a scrambled response using Eichhorn & Hayre's (1983) approach to collecting sensitive personal information. The estimates of the parameters in the model remain unbiased, but the variances of the estimates increase due to scrambling. The Wald test of the null hypothesis H₀: β=β₀, against the alternative hypothesis H_a: β#β₀, is also investigated. Parameter estimates obtained from scrambled responses are compared to those from conventional or direct-question surveys, using simulation. The coverage by nominal 95% confidence intervals is also reported.     

Towards a theory of point optimal testing

This paper puts the case for the inclusion of point optimal tests in the econometrician's repertoire. They do not suit every testing situation but the current evidence, which is reviewed here, indicates that they can have extremely useful Small-sample power properties. As well as being most powerful at a nominated point in the alternative hypothesis parameter space, they may also have optimum power at a number of other points and indeed be uniformly most powerful when such a test exists. Point optimal tests can also be used to trace out the maxemum attainable power envelope for a given testing problem, thus providing a benchmark against which test procedures can be evaluated. In some cases, point optimal tests can be constructed from tests of simple null hypothesis against a simple alternative. For a wide range of models of interst to econometricians, this paper shows how one can check whether a point optimal test can be constructed in this way. When it cannot, one may wish to consider approximately point optimal tests. As an illustration, the approach is applied to the non-nested problem of testing for AR(1) distrubances against MA(1) distrubances in the linear regression model.     

Using strategic issue analysis

Strategic issue analysis is proposed as a method for resolving the strategic issues that are an important part of strategic management. The SIA process is one in which a strategic issue information model is developed using a joint manager-analyst teamwork approach. The issue models and supporting data then provide the basis for strategic decision making. The approach has numerous advantages over other approaches— both more and less formal—for resolving the strategic questions that must be addressed in any comprehensive planning process.     

First step toward a computer model of human behaviour

The first aim of the research described in this paper was to develop a method for the study of the considerations which an individual brings to bear in the process of rendering decisions to specific problems. The second aim of the research was to utilize the categories of considerations thus established in developing analytic measures of an individual's decision-making process. The measures arrived at involved the concepts of directed graphs, and are all potentially meaningful measures of a structural hierarchy of the considerations involved in the decision-making process studied in this research. With the two goals of the research thus accomplished, it is concluded that a whole new approach to the study of decision-making has been charted - a prerequisite if effective computer models of human behaviour are to be developed.The research described in this paper was conducted at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsis, U.S.A., while the author was established there under an N.D.E.A. Fellowship.     

Background and Family Variables in a Causal Model of Career Maturity: Comparing Hearing and Hearing-Impaired Adolescents

The purpose of this study was to determine if differences exist in the way seven background, achievement, and family variables explain career maturity attitudes for adolescents with and without a handicap. Using path analytic techniques with data from 70 high school students with impaired hearing and from another 318 with normal hearing, the results suggested more similarities than differences in the patterns of influence among the predetermined variables. The results are discussed in terms of the amount of variance explained, the direct, indirect, and total effects of each of the predictor variables on career maturity, and the subsequent implications for career development theories.     

Conflicts between public and private opinion

The opportunities for research in the 1980s will be much affected by changes in society. In particular, by a clash between two powerful forces—the producer bureaucracy and the new individualism. It will be a clash of values and opinions; and research will be needed to measure them.However, there are dangers in the way that opinion research will be used, and especially in the way that it will be publicized. The protagonists in the arguments on many social issues are likely to make increasing use of published ‘research events’— that is, over-simplified and superficial figures on public opinion, designed mainly to appeal to the media's need for simple and dramatic news, and thence to affect public policies.In fact, the evidence is very strong that there is a genuine difference between people's private opinions and their public opinions. But the requirements of media contests will tend to force research methods to concentrate heavily on public opinions. The danger is not so much that this would distort social policies (though it might) as that it could damage the reputation of market research in general—especially if, as is likely, the findings of one group's ‘research events’ appeared to be directly opposed to those of another's.One important challenge of the 1980s will be to identify these risks and do something to guard against them. Five simple guidelines are suggested which I hope can contribute to a joint campaign to educate in the proper use and presentation of opinion research.     

Effect of consumption choices on fluxes of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus through households

Households are an important scale of analysis for human ecosystems because they are a major source of pollutants and could thus be a new focus for pollution management, particularly for education-based source reduction strategies. The household is also a meaningful unit for analysis of human ecosystems, being common to all human cultures. This study develops a Household Flux Calculator (HFC) to compute C, N, and P fluxes for scenarios intended to represent three levels of household consumption: low, typical, and high. All three scenarios were developed for suburban households with two adults and two children in the Minneapolis-St. Paul (Twin Cities) metropolitan area, Minnesota. Calculated ratios of fluxes between high and low consumption households were 3.5:1 for C, 2.7:1 for N and 1.4:1 for P. Results suggest a high level of discretionary consumption that could be reduced without a substantial reduction in standard of living. Thus, modest changes in behavior in high consumption households would greatly reduce fluxes of C, N, and P without major changes in lifestyle.

A revised socioeconomic index of occupational status

Duncan's Socioeconomic Index (SEI), a widely used indicator of occupational ranking, is based on education and income data from the 1950 census. The major purpose of this paper is to offer a more contemporary version of this index. There are several reasons for doing so. Not only has the occupational classificatory scheme been altered, but the educational and economic characteristics of the American labor force and of specific occupational groups have changed since 1950. The two decades may also have seen a shift in the relations between the educational and economic attributes of an occupational grouping and its social standing or prestige. Second, the construction of the original SEI rested on the characteristics of the male labor force, rather than those of the total labor force. Third, in the process of updating the index, we illustrate how certain arbitrary decisions (dictated by data limitations) in the construction of the Duncan SEI served to vest the socioeconomic index with some artifactual properties. In the production of an updated version of the socioeconomic index, we use three approaches. First, we experiment with differing measures of the income and educational criteria. Second, we reconstruct the dependent variable, occupational standing, to provide a better approximation of the prestige measure used by Duncan (1961). Third, we consider the attributes of both the male and total labor forces in generating contemporary indexes of occupational status. We also compare the performance of the new socioeconomic indexes in models of occupational attainment against the performance of the original Duncan index and subsequent occupational prestige measures. The paper appends new socioeconomic indexes for detailed occupational titles based on the 1970 census classification of occupations.     

Reflective Practice in Contemporary Child-care Social Work: The Role of Containment

In recent years, there has been growing interest in reflectivepractice as an approach that acknowledges the complexity anduncertainty inherent in contemporary social work practice. Whilstattention has been paid to how reflective practice is definedand understood, less consideration has been given to the conditionsthat facilitate its development. Drawing on recent doctoralresearch, this paper suggests that a particular type of reflectivepractice—holistic reflective practice—has the potentialto encourage thoughtful and creative practice capable of addressingthe challenges of contemporary child-care practice. Findingsfrom this research indicate that for holistic reflective practiceto be facilitated, the interdependence of the practitioner,team and organizational contexts needs to be recognized. Practitionersneed to work within safe containing contexts characterized by:clear organizational and professional boundaries; multifacetedreflective forums; collaborative and communicative working practices;and open and ‘contextually connected’ managers.Drawing on these findings and theorizing them in relation toBion’s concept of containment, the paper concludes byproposing a model of containment for the promotion of reflectivepractice.