RELATIONSHIP LENDING DURING A FINANCIAL CRISIS

This paper studies whether relationship lending mitigates the transmission of the Lehman default shock to the supply of credit in Italy. Exploiting the presence of multiple banking relationships, we control for banks' and firms' unobserved characteristics. Results show that the growth of credit itself is higher and its cost lower the shorter the distance between the bank and the firm, the longer the relationship, and the higher the share of credit held by the bank. Credit growth by relationship lenders is 4.6% higher than that by transactional lenders; the increase in the cost of credit is 50 basis points lower. The positive effect of relationship lending on credit supply increased during the crisis, compared to a pre‐crisis period. The beneficial effect of relationship lending is weaker if the relationship lender is more exposed to the financial crisis, especially when lending to weaker borrowers.     

A tobit model with garch errors

In the context of time series regression, we extend the standard Tobit model to allow for the possibility of conditional heteroskedastic error processes of the GARCH type. We discuss the likelihood function of the Tobit model in the presence of conditionally heteroskedastic errors. Expressing the exact likelihood function turns out to be infeasible, and we propose an approximation by treating the model as being conditionally Gaussian. The performance of the estimator is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We find that, when the error terms follow a GARCH process, the proposed estimator considerably outperforms the standard Tobit quasi maximum likelihood estimator. The efficiency loss due to the approximation of the likelihood is finally evaluated.     

Foreign Investments as the Main Determinant Growth Factor in Asian Countries and Regions

The paper considers the main drivers of Asian growth and connects them with three groups of analyses tracks. Foreign direct investments, as the elective factor incorporating the main trends and perspectives, both at economic and financial level and in the social and political framework. Second, the regional approach, resulting more and more as the key, crucial factor in developing openness and international competitiveness, at the appropriate scale of convergence and integration in the worldwide system, has been presented in its EU connections and in the Asian peculiarities. Finally, as a third area of analysis, the new theories of growth and the capabilities already achieved to measure phenomena that were still not affordable only twenty years ago. The final results of the foresight model for evaluating long-term growth and the associated applied elaborations by the Deutsche Bank Research have almost figured out the proximity to an alternative theoretical scientific and modelling ``corpus' for the existing growth studies, specifically considering the Asian and emerging countries' recent jump into a high rates trend development, with the focus on China and India. For all these three analyses, the paper underlines the relevance for Asia to consider the experiences and successful steps of the European ``efficient laboratory', in a process of real integration towards the union of economies, societies, currencies, and security policies that has been investigated from different points of view, with the aim to focus the possible partnership and the future cooperation.     

Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the U.S. dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data from the late 1800s or early 1900s for six countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between the exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional exchange rate theories. Employing a multivariate regime-switching framework, we find that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long-run equilibrium implied by the exchange rate–monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the exchange rate regime in operation. (JEL F31 )     

On uniformly distributed random points in an n-Ball

Consider a set of r+1 independently and identically and uniformly distributed random points X₀, X₁,…,X_r in RⁿThese points determine almost surely via their convex hull a unique r-simplex in R^e This article deals with the exact density of the r-content of this random r-simplex when the points are such that p of them are in the interior and r+l?p of them are on the surface of a unit n-ball. This problem is transformed into a distribution problem connected with multivariate test statistics. Various possible representations of the exact density in the general case, are also pointed out.     

Children in Need in the South of Italy: Features and Distortions in the Deinstitutionalisation of Care

Despite the shift in emphasis from institutional to foster family care, in the south of Italy children in need are mainly looked after by residential services. These are required to provide family‐style care and to place children on a short‐term basis. Using data from research on a 100% sample of day units, residential services and children in care in the Calabria region, this article investigates the functioning of the system of care for vulnerable children at the sub‐national level, describes looked‐after children’s characteristics and life conditions and questions the extent to which a real deinstitutionalisation process has occurred in this area. Finally, some deinstitutionalisation recommendations are given.     

Europe and Security in the Caucasus

The Caucasus has become, as a long-lasting seismic wave, a framework of enormous and underestimated relevance and uncertainty. But even so, we have not to become prisoner of a short-term “cage”. There is neither strategy nor policy, diplomacy, or war that can exist without four fundamental intellectual preconditions: historical knowledge, security knowledge, ethnic-cultural-religious knowledge, and knowledge of the geopolitical, economic, and international order. These have been recalled by some crucial comments taken from a revisited version of Homer’s Iliad, recently published by the Italian writer Alessandro Baricco, to better focus the concepts. “Men have always flung themselves headlong into battle, like moths attracted towards a fatal flame. There is no fear or self-disgust which has managed to keep them away from that flame” – he wrote – “because it is within that flame that they have always found the only way of emerging from the shadows of life. For this reason, I believe that no one will stop searching for an alternative beauty to that represented by the war path or stop looking for a reason to about face. Sooner or later we will succeed in calling Achilles away from this fateful war. Neither fear nor horror will bring him home. It will be some other completely different beauty, more dazzling than his own and infinitely more humble”. We are, in fact, aware of examples of very poor governance skills at a global level as regards the management of medium-and long-term international order options. And the Caucasus is really a case study. For these many reasons Europe cannot avoid an effective “neighbourhood policy” with the Caucasian countries. In 2003, the European Union appointed a Special Representative for the region. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia all have Partnership and Cooperation Agreements in force with the EU. Actions plans will be soon implemented and Europe represents by and large the preferred and more reliable interlocutor for the Caucasian region.     

Who should plan technological innovation?

Over the last 10 years there has been a growing need to improve integration between business planning and R & D activities. One reason for this has been a decrease in the returns on R & D investments. An understanding of the relationship between demand and technological innovation is needed to achieve this integration. The planning approach will be very different depending on whether the company's business is based on ‘technology-push’ or ‘demand-pull’, and whether planning is controlled by the R & D or the marketing function.     

The strategic management of R & D. Part II—Organizing for integration

The possibility of the R & D activity integrating with the ‘physiology’ of the industrial enterprise depends on the model management adopts for structures, roles and human resources. Such a model should allow integration between R & D and the enterprise and encourage innovation. Two main roads lead to the attainment of the integration process. The author outlines them by observing the experience of research laboratories in the United States and in Europe. The two roads are the ‘managerial integration’ model and the ‘technological integration’ model, analytically described in the article.